Lost-Sake — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$132

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

46.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

4,779 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$3.66K

$291.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$1.33K

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 21:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 152 days

Categories

Other

91% 97% +$1,835

Sports

4% 79% -$314

Crypto

3% 91% +$10

Pop-Culture

2% 33% -$2,075

Politics

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	+1,065	$1,050	98¢	$1.0K	-$11	10-15 19:58
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+205	$192	97¢	$200	+$7	10-07 00:05
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	+55	$52	97¢	$53	+$1	10-07 00:05
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+40	$39	98¢	$39	+$0	10-06 20:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the 2026 bad bunny super bowl halftime show video get between 50m and 75m views in its first 7 days	51	$5.7K	2,892	2,907	-16	No	+$15	02-12 03:27
highest temperature in sao paulo on february 25 2026 23corbelow	85	$2.8K	1,475	1,394	+81	No	+$27	02-25 11:58
highest temperature in nyc on february 22 2026 42 43f	25	$2.1K	1,078	1,078	+0	No	+$6	02-22 20:39
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	12	$2.1K	2,000	2,000	+0	Yes	-$1,190	05-20 19:17
highest temperature in nyc on february 20 2026 46forhigher	2	$2.1K	2,102	0	+2,102	No	+$2	02-20 20:47
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by february 13	2	$2.0K	1,002	1,002	+0	Yes	+$1	02-03 12:15
highest temperature in seoul on march 4 2026 10corhigher	2	$2.0K	1,001	1,001	+0	No	+$0	03-04 13:15
highest temperature in nyc on march 5 2026 50forhigher	4	$1.6K	1,602	0	+1,602	No	+$2	03-05 18:03
highest temperature in san francisco on april 4 2026 72 73f	16	$1.5K	790	780	+10	No	-$17	04-04 22:30
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	7	$1.5K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	-$886	05-17 18:04
highest temperature in busan on april 5 2026 21c	7	$1.5K	1,465	0	+1,465	No	+$7	04-05 12:07
highest temperature in buenos aires on february 23 2026 35corhigher	2	$1.4K	700	700	+0	No	+$4	02-23 17:16
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$1.3K	1,301	0	+1,301	No	+$1	01-31 18:18
highest temperature in madrid on march 18 2026 22c	7	$1.2K	1,257	0	+1,257	No	+$21	03-18 09:31
cs2 k271 wal2 2026 06 23	16	$1.2K	2,300	214	+2,086	cancelled	+$23	06-23 17:58
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$1	02-06 19:56
highest temperature in london on february 20 2026 5corbelow	31	$1.2K	592	592	+0	No	+$1	02-19 03:53
highest temperature in sao paulo on march 19 2026 30c	4	$1.1K	1,102	0	+1,102	No	+$9	03-19 12:26
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	12	$1.0K	1,065	0	+1,065	open	—	10-15 19:58
highest temperature in lucknow on march 6 2026 42corhigher	6	$1.0K	1,048	0	+1,048	No	+$1	03-06 10:49
highest temperature in london on february 24 2026 17c	20	$1.0K	443	613	-169	No	-$4	02-24 13:39
will bad bunny perform during the super bowl lx halftime show	3	$1.0K	501	501	+0	Yes	+$1	02-09 00:00
highest temperature in lucknow on march 8 2026 41c	3	$999	1,001	0	+1,001	No	+$1	03-08 06:42
highest temperature in dallas on march 13 2026 84forhigher	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$1	03-13 22:23
highest temperature in ankara on february 23 2026 10corhigher	7	$991	500	500	+0	No	+$8	02-23 14:23
highest temperature in madrid on march 20 2026 17c	8	$990	1,020	0	+1,020	No	+$30	03-20 12:53
highest temperature in lucknow on march 13 2026 42c	3	$983	984	0	+984	No	+$1	03-13 06:34
highest temperature in ankara on february 25 2026 11corhigher	19	$976	497	497	+0	No	+$17	02-25 12:54
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 21 2026 28corhigher	4	$974	1,018	0	+1,018	No	+$44	03-21 04:16
highest temperature in atlanta on march 14 2026 68 69f	7	$963	968	0	+968	No	+$5	03-14 18:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 21:30:34	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	66	18¢	$12	0x0e02eb…
10-29 21:18:06	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x329e7c…
10-29 21:17:04	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	403	19¢	$77	0xc406c3…
10-29 21:09:57	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xfb141d…
10-29 20:51:15	Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0xf87e25…
10-29 15:20:22	Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x494156…
10-29 15:19:04	Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0xd03d6e…
10-29 15:17:44	Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	86¢	$33	0xc51b09…
10-29 15:17:44	Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	86¢	$53	0x455bde…
10-28 19:31:58	Big Bash League, Women: Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Thunder	Melbourne Renegades	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xc1edd0…
10-27 02:40:02	Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5	Over	SELL	22	59¢	$13	0x26802b…
10-27 02:02:42	Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5	Over	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0xb0853b…
10-26 22:54:45	Ballon d'Or 2026: Lamine Yamal or Lionel Messi to finish higher?	Yamal	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe94108…
10-21 12:12:57	Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Gen.G GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Championship Playoffs	KRÜ Blaze	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x8ac813…
10-21 11:17:18	SC RASTA Vechta vs. Gladiators Trier	Gladiators Trier	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0xefee30…
10-19 18:55:44	Ningbo Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Iga Swiatek	Iga Swiatek	BUY	360	67¢	$241	0x417836…
10-19 15:56:42	Counter-Strike: Brute vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Phantom	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0xc985ca…
10-19 12:28:26	Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales	Sichuan Blue Whales	BUY	185	43¢	$80	0xaa1116…
10-19 01:32:50	Counter-Strike: Brute vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Phantom	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xe1f6bc…
10-18 15:14:12	Jazz vs. Grizzlies	Jazz	BUY	207	50¢	$104	0x1656a4…
10-15 21:24:20	Counter-Strike: NoTime vs NEW VISION (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season	NoTime	BUY	14	49¢	$7	0xb9299a…
10-15 19:58:16	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0xe991bc…
10-15 18:05:40	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x196bec…
10-15 07:58:20	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	34	96¢	$33	0xf15af7…
10-15 04:45:46	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xf9eab5…
10-15 04:40:32	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd50c97…
10-15 00:01:43	nba den lac 2026 10 14	Nuggets	BUY	252	58¢	$146	0xe5eb46…
10-11 21:27:16	Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x533b43…
10-11 21:27:08	Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	33	99¢	$32	0x71bce7…
10-11 21:23:02	Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x7413ad…
10-11 04:20:26	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	90¢	$27	0x992e70…
10-11 04:18:45	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	31	90¢	$28	0xd51cc4…
10-08 20:58:59	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x63fd13…
10-08 20:56:29	Australia A Tour of India Unofficial ODIs: India A vs Australia A	India A	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0xeb7c55…
10-07 12:28:13	T20 World Cup Asia Sub-Regional Qualifier B: Saudi Arabia vs Singapore	Saudi Arabia	BUY	95	80¢	$76	0x27a9f0…
10-07 00:05:58	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xbf6e34…
10-07 00:05:09	Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x32159e…
10-07 00:05:07	Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x4d3fe6…
10-06 23:57:47	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x58b4ea…
10-06 20:50:36	Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x96aa7d…
10-06 20:48:51	Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8ca676…
10-06 20:32:42	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0x9bfe33…
10-06 20:32:12	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	300	99¢	$297	0xb4ed12…
10-06 20:32:05	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x5a3175…
10-06 20:31:15	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x851523…
10-06 20:30:18	Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0x122c77…
10-06 20:29:45	Abstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xbbb910…
10-06 20:29:35	Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x681989…
10-06 20:29:18	Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x790f14…
10-06 20:29:12	Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xc26cea…
10-06 20:28:23	Will Abstract launch a token by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x0d96ac…
10-06 20:28:06	Will Abstract launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x879d1f…
10-06 20:27:59	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	85	99¢	$84	0x23b2c9…
10-06 20:27:53	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xae6783…
10-06 20:27:18	Abstract FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$196	0xf31482…
10-06 20:27:06	Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	119	98¢	$117	0x578ea9…
07-14 01:39:07	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	LPH Gaming	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7b2fea…
07-13 23:14:55	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	LPH Gaming	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xaaf91d…
07-13 23:07:07	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	LPH Gaming	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x87e932…
07-13 22:57:28	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	LPH Gaming	BUY	49	49¢	$24	0xd3638f…
07-13 20:44:43	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	ENJOY	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6866be…
07-13 20:34:25	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	ENJOY	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xb29e5f…
07-13 20:29:56	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	ENJOY	BUY	444	49¢	$217	0x686d02…
07-13 20:29:56	cs2 enjoy lph 2026 07 13	ENJOY	BUY	468	49¢	$230	0x1a5614…
07-11 11:01:16	codmw faz g2m 2026 07 16	FaZe Vegas	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x1cebd4…
07-10 19:12:20	codmw faz g2m 2026 07 16	FaZe Vegas	BUY	41	69¢	$28	0x14f528…
07-10 19:09:02	ufc gsteve eli10 2026 07 11	Gable Steveson	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0x8c4a3e…
07-10 19:05:52	cs2 3dmax hero 2026 07 15	3DMAX	BUY	252	41¢	$103	0xc28b49…
07-10 19:03:40	cs2 3dmax hero 2026 07 15	3DMAX	BUY	350	41¢	$144	0x412759…
07-10 14:32:46	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x45e749…
07-10 14:16:58	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xd87978…
07-10 14:15:26	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa1d14d…
07-10 14:07:28	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x20575c…
07-10 13:22:23	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x84d24a…
07-10 13:05:02	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x99988d…
07-10 13:03:23	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	45	40¢	$18	0xd454e6…
07-10 11:26:34	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	119	51¢	$61	0x5a6d79…
07-10 11:26:29	Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xe77628…
07-10 11:15:08	cricmlc san los 2026 07 10	San Francisco Unicorns	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5f0359…
07-10 11:07:07	Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	25	51¢	$13	0x25ae22…
07-10 00:47:32	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd37d6d…
07-09 20:25:44	dota2 invisi sb5 2026 07 09	Invision	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xd2c436…
07-09 19:55:13	dota2 invisi sb5 2026 07 09	Invision	BUY	25	48¢	$12	0x9d1f55…
07-09 19:48:47	dota2 invisi sb5 2026 07 09	Invision	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x10b93a…
07-09 19:41:31	dota2 invisi sb5 2026 07 09	Invision	BUY	63	49¢	$31	0x26c20b…
07-09 15:48:14	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	206	9¢	$19	0x95648f…
07-09 15:42:13	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	16	82¢	$13	0xac2142…
07-09 15:20:19	codmw tex mh 2026 07 16	OpTic Texas	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0x6c3330…
07-09 14:57:26	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xb9fdd6…
07-09 14:57:22	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 9?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x15339e…
07-09 14:03:53	crint bel2 srb 2026 07 10	Belgium	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x585789…
07-08 18:33:07	cs2 yaw mw 2026 07 08	METANOIA WOLVES	SELL	38	18¢	$7	0x850834…
07-08 13:35:40	cs2 yaw mw 2026 07 08	METANOIA WOLVES	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x731dc4…
07-07 22:00:49	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	SELL	156	95¢	$149	0xad1baa…
07-07 15:05:52	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$9	0x61c46e…
07-07 14:50:34	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	BUY	33	84¢	$28	0x2fb176…
07-07 14:43:01	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xfe2d0b…
07-07 14:21:35	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xd7d394…
07-07 13:44:32	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 7?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$6	0xa18f64…
07-06 19:18:29	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 6?	Yes	SELL	66	85¢	$56	0x7e7d52…