Private-Barrel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.05K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.83K

Hit rate

69.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$74.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.12K

Open exposure

$1.95K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 10-21 20:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Politics

51% 48% -$1,105

Other

45% 31% -$606

Sports

3% 33% -$1,337

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% 67% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+3,846	$1,000	18¢	$712	-$288	08-01 17:58
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+633	$500	94¢	$592	+$92	09-21 16:46
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	+11,357	$2,500	4¢	$397	-$2,103	10-21 20:41
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+6,322	$780	4¢	$253	-$527	10-21 20:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$14.4K	7,419	7,419	+0	No	+$382	07-01 14:02
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	2	$7.0K	6,494	2,178	+4,316	Yes	+$1,321	07-01 17:59
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	2	$5.8K	4,847	4,847	+0	open	—	09-30 07:33
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	1	$5.0K	7,042	0	+7,042	Yes	+$2,042	06-24 12:29
Iran Nuke before 2027?	2	$4.0K	2,120	2,120	+0	open	—	09-21 16:42
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	1	$3.1K	3,221	0	+3,221	No	+$101	06-24 12:40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	5	$2.9K	11,192	5,278	+5,914	No	-$1,103	05-30 17:42
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	1	$2.5K	11,357	0	+11,357	open	—	10-21 20:41
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2.5K	2,941	0	+2,941	Yes	-$2,500	07-23 15:18
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	3	$2.3K	2,838	1,449	+1,388	No	-$1,677	09-22 18:28
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,220	1,220	+0	No	+$211	09-21 16:41
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$2.2K	1,209	1,209	+0	No	+$172	03-01 16:24
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	1	$2.0K	2,758	0	+2,758	Yes	-$2,000	07-23 15:17
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1.5K	3,788	0	+3,788	No	-$1,500	07-19 20:05
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	1	$1.5K	5,172	0	+5,172	Yes	+$3,672	02-27 16:29
will uae strike iran by march 31	3	$1.5K	2,104	1,275	+830	No	-$532	03-03 21:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$1000	3,846	0	+3,846	open	—	08-01 17:58
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$1000	1,697	0	+1,697	Yes	+$697	03-25 17:16
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$1000	9,148	0	+9,148	No	-$1,000	02-20 16:23
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$1000	1,493	0	+1,493	Yes	+$493	03-03 18:21
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$1000	5,882	0	+5,882	No	-$1,000	03-25 17:15
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	1	$1000	1,667	0	+1,667	Yes	-$1,000	07-23 15:17
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	1	$1000	2,632	0	+2,632	Yes	+$1,632	02-24 22:31
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	1	$1000	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$200	03-01 16:29
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	1	$780	6,322	0	+6,322	open	—	10-21 20:49
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	1	$500	633	0	+633	open	—	09-21 16:46
epl ars che 2026 03 01 che	1	$500	2,931	0	+2,931	No	-$500	03-01 17:46
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?	1	$500	2,632	0	+2,632	No	-$500	07-04 16:56
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$500	763	0	+763	No	+$263	07-02 18:55
will iran close its airspace by february 28 2026	2	$429	336	336	+0	Yes	+$229	02-28 22:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 20:49:30	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6,322	12¢	$780	0x31146e…
10-21 20:41:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	11,357	22¢	$2,500	0x611b7e…
09-30 07:33:11	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	SELL	4,847	62¢	$3,027	0x08f16e…
09-28 20:48:08	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	Yes	BUY	4,847	58¢	$2,800	0x38ab7c…
09-22 18:29:58	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Yes	BUY	228	88¢	$200	0x52fdd1…
09-22 18:28:40	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,388	72¢	$1,000	0x260b39…
09-22 18:26:48	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	SELL	1,449	22¢	$323	0xa5b433…
09-21 16:47:57	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	1,449	69¢	$1,000	0xa745eb…
09-21 16:46:29	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	633	79¢	$500	0x26cb77…
09-21 16:43:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x93128e…
09-21 16:43:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-21 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x62ae65…
09-21 16:42:29	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	2,120	95¢	$2,008	0x816564…
09-21 16:41:45	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,220	99¢	$1,211	0x5f5931…
08-01 17:58:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,846	26¢	$1,000	0xd91213…
08-01 17:57:15	will iran target a arab country on august 2 2026 20260801004719119	Yes	BUY	134	75¢	$100	0xf320a1…
07-23 15:18:28	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	2,941	85¢	$2,500	0x74e416…
07-23 15:17:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	BUY	1,667	60¢	$1,000	0xc23c8b…
07-23 15:17:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	No	BUY	2,758	73¢	$2,000	0x7c4cfe…
07-19 20:05:54	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3,788	40¢	$1,500	0x6df2b5…
07-04 16:59:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x9c8151…
07-04 16:56:41	Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	2,632	19¢	$500	0x27a450…
07-02 18:55:05	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	763	65¢	$500	0x532323…
07-02 18:48:31	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 7 20260630014219997	Yes	BUY	6,065	2¢	$150	0x2f4e1b…
07-01 17:59:04	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	SELL	2,178	92¢	$2,006	0xbe3072…
07-01 14:08:44	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	6,494	77¢	$5,000	0x243530…
07-01 14:02:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	7,419	99¢	$7,382	0x46fa72…
06-27 07:19:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7,419	94¢	$7,000	0x457534…
06-24 12:40:14	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	3,221	97¢	$3,120	0x26adfc…
06-24 12:29:50	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	7,042	71¢	$5,000	0x94302e…
06-24 12:26:20	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	2,120	94¢	$2,000	0xcc906d…
05-30 17:42:14	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5,914	17¢	$1,000	0xe37acb…
05-30 17:41:56	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	SELL	2,778	17¢	$472	0xf52e8b…
05-30 17:38:47	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	2,778	18¢	$500	0xd10362…
05-30 17:38:10	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	SELL	2,500	17¢	$425	0x5daf2d…
05-30 17:36:10	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	741	27¢	$200	0xc61436…
05-30 17:35:52	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	2,500	20¢	$500	0x82377e…
03-25 17:16:01	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,697	59¢	$1,000	0x96c88c…
03-25 17:15:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	5,882	17¢	$1,000	0xf3fdac…
03-23 21:56:23	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	521	19¢	$100	0x33e7bf…
03-03 21:43:17	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	830	60¢	$500	0x00df5c…
03-03 21:39:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	SELL	870	23¢	$200	0x41f278…
03-03 18:21:01	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,493	67¢	$1,000	0xbce453…
03-03 18:20:45	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	Yes	BUY	870	23¢	$200	0x7aa64a…
03-02 21:58:19	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,275	37¢	$468	0xaabeb6…
03-02 21:41:09	lal rea get 2026 03 02 draw	Yes	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0x528c16…
03-02 21:38:35	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	271	61¢	$165	0x2c9770…
03-02 18:53:19	will uae strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,275	39¢	$500	0x6264e8…
03-01 17:49:05	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	271	37¢	$100	0x1b4c09…
03-01 17:46:35	epl ars che 2026 03 01 che	Yes	BUY	2,931	17¢	$500	0xde525e…
03-01 16:29:49	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 2 645 466 285 492	No	BUY	1,200	83¢	$1,000	0x6af730…
03-01 16:24:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	SELL	1,209	97¢	$1,172	0xcf982d…
02-28 22:00:21	will iran close its airspace by february 28 2026	Yes	SELL	336	98¢	$329	0x911803…
02-28 21:58:59	us forces enter iran by march 3 882 999	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xf36980…
02-28 21:57:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	1,209	83¢	$1,000	0x5c0eb1…
02-27 16:29:23	US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,172	29¢	$1,500	0x09e5a3…
02-27 16:29:01	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	1,792	6¢	$100	0x887faf…
02-24 22:38:28	ahl san cal 2026 02 25	Calgary Wranglers	BUY	235	43¢	$100	0xa4ce62…
02-24 22:32:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-24 22:30 UTC	Down	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x4bae7d…
02-24 22:31:54	US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,632	38¢	$1,000	0x423c05…
02-23 22:42:34	nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 25 2026 1pt52	No	BUY	1,384	7¢	$100	0x07db1a…
02-21 18:36:00	will trump say winter olympic or winter olympics this week february 22	Yes	BUY	346	29¢	$100	0xe27737…
02-21 18:33:24	will israel strike lebanon on february 22 2026	Yes	BUY	207	48¢	$100	0xfe18d9…
02-21 18:29:34	lal osa rea 2026 02 21 rea	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xcc52bd…
02-21 18:27:42	will iran close its airspace by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	336	30¢	$100	0xa4c2c1…
02-20 16:23:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 16:20 UTC	Up	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x5729f3…
02-20 16:23:06	us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	Yes	BUY	9,148	11¢	$1,000	0x12c329…