Married-Testing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31

Unrealized P&L

-$18

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

130

lifetime

Volume

$35.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$275

Open exposure

$119

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-10 01:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 97% +$50

Other

38% 94% -$91

Sports

5% 100% +$5

Tech

3% 100% +$4

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No		-121	-$101	98¢	$-119	-$18	05-14 11:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	6	$1.7K	908	908	+0	open	—	11-10 01:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$1.6K	822	822	+0	No	+$3	07-29 10:29
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.6K	819	819	+0	No	+$5	07-12 03:32
will crude oil cl hit low 55 by end of march 636 962 469 326 685 977 449 282 342 385 842	2	$1.5K	766	766	+0	No	+$6	03-26 15:00
will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	2	$1.5K	758	757	+0	No	+$2	03-11 20:21
bitcoin above 74k on march 10	2	$1.5K	757	757	+0	No	+$8	03-10 13:07
will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	8	$1.5K	747	747	+0	No	+$5	03-07 03:45
will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	4	$1.5K	742	742	+0	No	+$10	03-05 12:27
will bitcoin reach 80k february 9 15	12	$1.4K	724	724	+0	No	+$11	02-13 13:59
will the price of bitcoin be between 96000 98000 on february 4	4	$1.4K	709	709	-0	No	+$1	02-02 22:53
bitcoin above 78k on march 13	9	$1.3K	759	518	+241	No	+$1	03-12 09:48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	2	$1.2K	624	624	+0	No	+$3	06-26 08:08
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	2	$1.2K	628	628	+0	No	+$3	02-15 08:15
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$1.0K	524	524	+0	No	+$1	03-03 07:43
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	3	$1.0K	516	516	+0	No	+$4	06-12 18:07
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	5	$1.0K	514	514	+0	No	+$4	06-08 05:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$1.0K	506	506	+0	No	+$8	05-18 16:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	4	$958	482	482	+0	No	+$3	04-14 16:10
bitcoin above 64k on march 14	2	$779	390	390	+0	Yes	+$1	03-14 01:32
xrp above 1 on march 4	2	$756	378	378	+0	Yes	+$0	03-04 01:11
bitcoin above 82k on february 10	1	$711	712	0	+712	No	+$1	02-09 13:10
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on february 4	1	$708	709	0	+709	No	+$1	02-03 23:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	6	$577	291	291	+0	No	+$3	04-17 06:22
si hit 70 low jan 2026 929 537 842	2	$533	268	268	+0	No	+$2	01-30 05:52
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on february 8	1	$530	531	0	+531	No	+$1	02-08 00:35
xrp above 2 on february 7	1	$522	523	0	+523	No	+$1	02-05 12:17
will bnb dip to 600 in january	3	$447	226	226	-0	No	+$4	01-27 15:24
xrp above 1pt1 on march 4	2	$441	222	222	+0	Yes	+$1	03-03 14:14
will ethereum dip to 1800 in january 2026 971	2	$427	214	214	+0	No	+$1	01-29 09:21
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$379	190	190	+0	No	+$0	05-27 12:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 01:13:34	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x7b78ec…
11-10 01:13:34	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	735	95¢	$698	0x2d923c…
09-22 01:50:05	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	153	99¢	$151	0xbb07f8…
09-22 01:44:48	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x64f1a6…
09-22 01:44:46	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xd32226…
09-16 04:28:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$103	0x69899a…
09-08 12:37:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$102	0x4fbfe9…
09-01 16:41:46	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	111	92¢	$102	0xf649bf…
08-02 12:15:38	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	908	90¢	$818	0x12d09d…
07-29 10:29:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	822	100¢	$821	0xe082fb…
07-12 05:28:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	822	100¢	$818	0x6bafa2…
07-12 03:32:50	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	819	100¢	$817	0x6ed31d…
07-04 11:24:41	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	819	99¢	$812	0x095853…
06-26 08:20:52	Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x7d8382…
06-26 08:08:11	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	624	100¢	$623	0xc712a6…
06-16 06:43:45	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	624	99¢	$620	0x3c1c9c…
06-12 18:07:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	SELL	248	100¢	$247	0x685eac…
06-12 18:07:51	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	SELL	268	100¢	$268	0xe7d8fc…
06-11 14:53:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	105	100¢	$105	0x24b035…
06-10 12:57:22	spacex ipo closing market cap above 4t	No	BUY	516	99¢	$511	0x34db93…
06-08 05:18:22	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	207	99¢	$206	0x8b069b…
06-08 05:04:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	146	99¢	$145	0x9a466c…
06-08 05:03:54	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	141	99¢	$140	0x1d9150…
06-08 05:03:48	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x66f46b…
06-02 06:43:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	105	100¢	$105	0x9750ef…
05-31 00:04:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	SELL	104	99¢	$103	0x7d9a81…
05-30 13:42:01	Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$187	0x28f4c7…
05-27 12:14:26	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0x7201b7…
05-21 01:40:26	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	514	99¢	$507	0x5ad6c8…
05-18 16:58:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	506	100¢	$504	0xcc37ac…
05-18 13:20:55	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0xfb5d6c…
05-16 20:43:19	Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	194	99¢	$192	0x98914c…
05-15 05:04:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	BUY	104	97¢	$101	0xda72fa…
05-14 11:35:23	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	121	83¢	$101	0x5ff5aa…
05-05 08:03:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	506	98¢	$496	0x20af03…
04-23 12:10:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	128	90¢	$115	0x74ec23…
04-18 11:21:22	will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	No	SELL	115	100¢	$115	0xa5f6fd…
04-17 06:22:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	280	100¢	$279	0xd34941…
04-17 05:42:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x0dfc01…
04-17 05:23:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x821c69…
04-17 04:53:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xbcf21f…
04-16 22:55:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0xd1161b…
04-15 12:20:44	will bitcoin reach 84k april 13 19	No	BUY	115	99¢	$114	0x134b51…
04-14 16:10:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$111	0x20c0d2…
04-14 08:11:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x6faf8f…
04-14 07:36:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	370	99¢	$366	0xc08589…
04-14 05:02:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	SELL	367	100¢	$366	0x11af83…
04-07 00:44:23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	482	99¢	$478	0xb4f5f7…
04-07 00:44:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April?	No	BUY	291	99¢	$287	0x730ec7…
03-26 15:00:29	will crude oil cl hit low 55 by end of march 636 962 469 326 685 977 449 282 342 385 842	No	SELL	766	100¢	$765	0xcc1dc0…
03-16 04:41:37	will crude oil cl hit low 55 by end of march 636 962 469 326 685 977 449 282 342 385 842	No	BUY	766	99¢	$759	0x8361a3…
03-14 01:32:27	bitcoin above 64k on march 14	Yes	SELL	390	100¢	$390	0x322464…
03-13 15:32:19	bitcoin above 58k on march 14	Yes	BUY	369	100¢	$369	0x9d7a8a…
03-13 15:31:45	bitcoin above 64k on march 14	Yes	BUY	390	100¢	$389	0xbb779d…
03-12 09:48:35	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	149	100¢	$148	0x113b03…
03-12 09:43:13	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x9adc19…
03-12 09:42:53	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xc9f576…
03-12 09:42:51	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	36	100¢	$36	0x0c7f48…
03-12 09:42:45	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xac7dcd…
03-12 09:41:01	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	138	100¢	$138	0x130164…
03-12 09:33:59	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x87263d…
03-12 09:32:39	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	SELL	109	100¢	$109	0x1eca01…
03-12 04:01:13	bitcoin above 78k on march 13	No	BUY	759	100¢	$757	0x4ed076…
03-11 20:21:49	will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	No	SELL	757	100¢	$757	0x4d3e6d…
03-11 13:22:43	will bitcoin dip to 62k on march 11	No	BUY	758	100¢	$754	0x77786a…
03-10 13:07:53	bitcoin above 74k on march 10	No	SELL	757	100¢	$754	0xbb9602…
03-10 12:35:51	bitcoin above 74k on march 10	No	BUY	757	99¢	$746	0x8d1168…
03-08 19:42:05	will xrp reach 1pt6 march 2 8	No	SELL	188	100¢	$188	0xc32bdb…
03-08 14:45:55	will xrp reach 1pt6 march 2 8	No	BUY	188	100¢	$188	0x46c12a…
03-08 14:45:41	will xrp reach 1pt7 march 2 8	No	BUY	321	100¢	$321	0x0a4b3a…
03-08 14:45:35	will xrp dip to 0pt8 march 2 8	No	BUY	237	100¢	$237	0x3daaf4…
03-07 03:45:15	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x3e780e…
03-07 03:42:15	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	5	100¢	$4	0x6e9432…
03-07 03:39:29	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xfa82fd…
03-07 03:28:31	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa415a7…
03-07 03:25:51	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	122	100¢	$121	0x2a5fc1…
03-07 03:15:25	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	301	100¢	$300	0xa343ba…
03-07 03:08:19	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	SELL	295	100¢	$294	0x82a2c3…
03-06 12:06:07	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	BUY	747	99¢	$740	0xc15f4e…
03-05 12:27:21	will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	No	SELL	213	100¢	$213	0x13767b…
03-05 12:26:29	will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x22272f…
03-05 12:25:43	will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	No	SELL	516	100¢	$515	0xcc49ff…
03-04 05:24:09	will bitcoin dip to 52k march 2 8	No	BUY	742	98¢	$731	0x666cd8…
03-04 04:40:25	xrp above 0pt9 on march 5	Yes	SELL	132	100¢	$131	0xc63346…
03-04 01:11:23	xrp above 1 on march 4	Yes	SELL	378	100¢	$378	0xe3c66b…
03-03 14:14:47	xrp above 1pt1 on march 4	Yes	SELL	222	100¢	$221	0x816efc…
03-03 07:44:37	xrp above 0pt9 on march 5	Yes	BUY	132	100¢	$131	0x87b6e7…
03-03 07:44:19	xrp above 1pt1 on march 4	Yes	BUY	222	99¢	$220	0x02104a…
03-03 07:44:07	xrp above 1 on march 4	Yes	BUY	378	100¢	$378	0xde583d…
03-03 07:43:37	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	524	100¢	$521	0x035861…
02-26 08:06:34	will nvda dip to 156 in february	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xd23cb1…
02-25 18:50:52	will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	No	SELL	107	100¢	$107	0xdea4f2…
02-25 03:40:18	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xe219da…
02-19 12:21:04	will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x6fbcce…
02-19 00:04:12	will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	No	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xd54b85…
02-15 23:51:51	will bitcoin reach 150k in february 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x7566a7…
02-15 23:49:01	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	524	99¢	$520	0xa123f7…
02-15 08:15:39	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	628	99¢	$621	0x33557e…
02-14 08:12:13	will bitcoin reach 110k in february 2026	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0xe6ffb4…
02-14 08:11:41	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	628	98¢	$617	0x071652…