Terrible-Ignorance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$944

Unrealized P&L

-$37

Hit rate

68.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$86

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-17

last 11-03 05:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 18 days

Categories

Politics

92% 33% -$783

Other

8% 50% -$161

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes		+357	$25	2¢	$8	-$17	10-31 02:49
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes		+227	$25	2¢	$6	-$19	10-31 02:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	2	$1.4K	832	832	+0	No	+$50	08-28 04:03
us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	2	$1.3K	644	644	+0	Yes	+$5	08-25 05:20
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	1	$732	751	0	+751	No	-$732	08-28 04:03
kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	2	$203	9,992	9,992	+0	No	-$150	10-30 04:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$202	593	593	+0	open	—	10-31 02:36
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$91	556	556	+0	No	-$9	06-10 22:16
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	5	$79	881	0	+881	No	-$79	06-10 22:17
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	3	$68	42	42	+0	Yes	+$15	08-25 05:21
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	2	$35	585	0	+585	No	-$35	06-01 10:19
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	1	$28	93	0	+93	Yes	+$65	05-27 00:22
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	1	$27	1,158	0	+1,158	No	-$27	10-31 02:54
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	2	$25	308	308	+0	No	-$25	11-03 05:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	2	$25	250	250	+0	No	-$25	11-03 05:30
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	1	$25	227	0	+227	open	—	10-31 02:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	1	$25	357	0	+357	open	—	10-31 02:49
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	1	$24	24	0	+24	Yes	+$0	07-20 15:52
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	2	$23	24	0	+24	Yes	+$1	06-22 16:43
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	2	$12	278	278	+0	No	-$9	07-04 06:23
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	2	$11	160	0	+160	Yes	-$11	06-01 10:20
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	2	$5	100	100	+0	No	-$5	05-31 10:33
Will Sandra Gauci be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	1	$5	3,252	0	+3,252	No	-$5	05-26 06:59
peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	1	$5	225	0	+225	No	-$5	06-25 09:23
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	1	$5	22	0	+22	No	-$5	06-25 10:24
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	1	$5	15	0	+15	No	-$5	05-29 00:26
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	1	$5	29	0	+29	Yes	-$5	06-01 10:56
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	1	$5	29	0	+29	No	-$5	06-01 10:55
Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	1	$5	63	0	+63	Yes	+$58	05-24 11:22
Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	1	$5	450	0	+450	No	-$5	05-17 06:08
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	1	$5	7	0	+7	No	+$2	05-31 13:01
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	1	$3	5	0	+5	Yes	+$2	05-31 13:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 05:30:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$0	0x8edf0a…
11-03 05:29:18	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	SELL	308	0¢	$0	0x0929ff…
10-31 02:54:07	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,158	2¢	$27	0x2dea41…
10-31 02:49:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0xb4c119…
10-31 02:48:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	10¢	$25	0x93b558…
10-31 02:41:07	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	308	8¢	$25	0x9c4f21…
10-31 02:39:31	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	11¢	$25	0x658ec3…
10-31 02:36:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	593	17¢	$101	0xb31820…
10-30 04:18:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	SELL	9,992	0¢	$26	0x817c68…
10-10 09:35:27	Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	1¢	$2	0x0f01a0…
10-04 07:55:56	kharg island no longer under iranian control by october 31	Yes	BUY	9,992	2¢	$177	0x5b3d29…
10-03 03:34:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	593	17¢	$101	0x7e41e1…
08-28 04:03:40	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	751	98¢	$732	0x766696…
08-28 04:03:10	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	Yes	SELL	832	88¢	$732	0xc1b684…
08-25 05:22:22	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	Yes	BUY	832	82¢	$682	0xfbf756…
08-25 05:21:19	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x0dab36…
08-25 05:20:49	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	SELL	644	99¢	$640	0x90f023…
08-24 01:38:13	us x iran ceasefire continues through august 25	Yes	BUY	644	99¢	$636	0x201d56…
08-01 07:33:18	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	BUY	36	64¢	$23	0x83c46c…
07-20 15:52:37	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x0e6d37…
07-14 23:38:44	Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4a110d…
07-12 09:56:02	Will Tayte Willows win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xfd08ff…
07-09 14:48:52	Will BN win the 2026 Johor general elections?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x0046b2…
07-04 06:23:53	Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	SELL	278	1¢	$2	0xf8fd1f…
06-25 10:24:56	Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	278	4¢	$11	0x1eed37…
06-25 10:24:17	Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xfc7e4f…
06-25 09:23:04	peru presidential election invalidated 20260608171643979	Yes	BUY	225	2¢	$5	0xe78b53…
06-22 16:43:28	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$14	0x494ebc…
06-22 16:37:14	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x51ca34…
06-10 22:17:09	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	628	6¢	$38	0x446501…
06-10 22:16:27	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	556	7¢	$41	0x9b18b8…
06-10 22:13:43	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xc84db2…
06-10 22:13:09	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xa9bb21…
06-09 01:08:39	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	556	9¢	$50	0x29a45d…
06-05 01:50:25	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x526073…
06-05 01:50:01	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x2d0a73…
06-01 10:56:00	Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x43fc22…
06-01 10:55:34	Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa6aee0…
06-01 10:20:49	Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0xa9e68e…
06-01 10:19:34	Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	96	5¢	$5	0x71f277…
05-31 13:33:18	Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	147	7¢	$10	0x43a25f…
05-31 13:30:04	Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	489	6¢	$30	0x68f172…
05-31 13:01:33	Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x32dbc7…
05-31 13:01:17	Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xa65ee6…
05-31 10:33:37	Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xdc5f06…
05-29 00:26:41	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x10a68c…
05-27 12:38:02	Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x1c3972…
05-27 00:22:39	Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Yes	BUY	93	30¢	$28	0xa4d1a7…
05-26 06:59:40	Will Sandra Gauci be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?	Yes	BUY	3,252	0¢	$5	0xe0d2a0…
05-24 11:22:25	Will Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	63	8¢	$5	0x498b27…
05-17 06:08:16	Will María Jesús Montero be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Yes	BUY	450	1¢	$5	0x7ef460…