Realized P&L
-$40
Unrealized P&L
+$4
Hit rate
46.6%
Resolved
85
Trades
157
lifetime
Volume
$420
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$60
6 positions
First seen
2026-01-11
last 10-19 10:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 38 days
Categories
Politics
64% 11% +$17
Other
30% 5% -$38
Crypto
3% 0% -$13
Sports
3% 0% -$6
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
7 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +196 $26 16¢ $30 +$4 10-01 23:47
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes +723 $25 4¢ $27 +$2 10-01 23:46
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026? Yes +129 $1 1¢ $1 $0 10-19 10:13
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Yes +111 $1 1¢ $1 $0 10-08 11:54
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? Yes +50 $1 1¢ $0 -$1 10-10 15:46
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? Yes +13 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 10-19 10:14