Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$691

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$63

1 position

First seen

2026-03-06

last 07-19 12:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

60% 0% $-6

Politics

35% 100% +$20

Tech

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No		-64	$-59	98¢	$-63	$-4	07-19 12:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	4	$144	127	223	-96	Yes	+$20	04-25 17:02
will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	10	$140	197	82	+115	open	—	04-30 11:15
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	18	$109	240	168	+72	Yes	$-6	04-27 05:55
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	6	$70	46	45	+1	open	—	04-09 21:51
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$59	54	54	+0	open	—	06-14 12:32
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	1	$59	0	64	-64	open	—	07-19 12:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$22	32	0	+32	open	—	05-21 17:11
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	4	$16	272	0	+272	open	—	04-23 11:48
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	3	$15	21	21	+0	open	—	03-10 10:27
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	04-10 12:35
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	1	$12	14	0	+14	open	—	04-23 13:29
will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	2	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	03-08 11:02
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	2	$8	20	0	+20	open	—	04-24 11:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	1	$8	11	0	+11	open	—	04-16 22:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	05-01 12:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 12:28:30	FDA approves Retatrutide this year?	No	SELL	64	92¢	$59	0x25db20…
06-14 12:32:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	54	45¢	$24	0xbb2dc9…
06-01 12:34:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	54	65¢	$35	0xb53041…
05-21 17:11:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xc9429f…
05-01 12:34:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$4	0x3f4ef5…
04-30 11:15:22	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xbff25f…
04-27 05:55:58	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0xd06a89…
04-26 23:55:38	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xb3e4d4…
04-26 17:54:50	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0xdfe0e0…
04-26 11:54:44	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xbc34cf…
04-25 23:53:32	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0xce33d9…
04-25 17:52:48	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x2faee5…
04-25 17:03:54	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	23	13¢	$3	0xf82479…
04-25 17:02:54	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	SELL	103	35¢	$36	0xbef7b3…
04-25 17:02:42	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x1388ea…
04-25 12:27:28	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	67	25¢	$17	0x9ba6c7…
04-25 12:27:12	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	28	31¢	$9	0xad1a01…
04-24 14:08:22	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x30a63d…
04-24 14:07:02	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x55e03a…
04-24 11:33:56	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	16	40¢	$6	0xc18929…
04-23 13:29:02	Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0x6e8d57…
04-23 11:48:18	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	7¢	$5	0x71cd0b…
04-23 05:47:24	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	73	4¢	$3	0xbf8077…
04-22 13:03:02	Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0xd8cb12…
04-20 02:49:34	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	SELL	120	38¢	$46	0x56c16c…
04-17 05:31:44	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	63	6¢	$4	0x0a8ddf…
04-16 23:31:10	GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x8136f9…
04-16 22:14:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	11	73¢	$8	0x2e240b…
04-15 09:16:20	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	26	45¢	$12	0x4fdb1e…
04-14 21:47:42	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	SELL	82	50¢	$41	0xb67697…
04-13 18:51:13	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x74da62…
04-13 11:50:09	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xd59d03…
04-13 10:38:39	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xfa249a…
04-11 12:31:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x7f740a…
04-11 11:32:53	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	45	50¢	$22	0xe5e3dd…
04-10 12:35:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x935703…
04-10 07:21:25	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	53	49¢	$26	0xc58652…
04-09 21:51:37	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	SELL	45	95¢	$43	0x1ae7f7…
04-09 19:07:49	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x55269d…
04-09 16:27:21	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf1264a…
04-09 11:41:23	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	19	49¢	$9	0x10a6ba…
04-09 10:07:41	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	91	49¢	$44	0x48f42c…
04-08 22:55:33	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbec3db…
04-08 22:45:47	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xa7ac6f…
04-08 22:14:37	will the dhs shutdown last 80 days or more 431	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xcbd2d8…
04-08 21:48:41	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	122	49¢	$60	0xef80bd…
04-08 20:24:55	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x4f0837…
03-13 19:08:25	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x5baf50…
03-12 16:28:53	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	45	19¢	$9	0xf29619…
03-10 10:27:01	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	SELL	21	26¢	$5	0x295b5e…
03-08 11:02:13	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0b2ced…
03-07 18:49:29	will the individual taxation referendum be approved in switzerlands 8 march 2026 popular vote	No	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x09cb7b…
03-07 13:54:49	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x14d343…
03-07 13:50:57	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xd8a0f6…
03-07 11:34:57	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xc65cad…
03-07 10:02:49	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	16	46¢	$7	0xab520b…
03-07 09:55:41	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xe4bcb0…
03-06 21:16:17	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	No	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xb6e102…