Circular-Thongs — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.5%

Resolved

Trades

926

lifetime

Volume

$10.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 07-14 17:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

41% 50% +$9

Other

34% 33% $-1

Tech

17% — —

Sports

4% — —

Pop-Culture

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	6	$1.1K	993	523	+469	open	—	05-09 18:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$734	546	546	+0	open	—	04-08 05:08
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	5	$461	305	305	+0	open	—	05-15 00:26
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	7	$370	215	202	+13	open	—	04-16 12:29
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$330	246	246	+0	open	—	06-26 22:39
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$308	400	110	+290	open	—	04-21 04:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$305	425	285	+140	open	—	04-21 04:10
will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	7	$296	400	0	+400	open	—	07-12 00:49
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 23c	6	$283	257	257	+0	open	—	04-14 04:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$282	166	166	+0	open	—	04-23 19:07
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	2	$264	200	200	+0	open	—	06-14 03:08
will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	9	$262	250	250	+0	open	—	04-12 19:18
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	5	$241	405	5	+400	open	—	04-21 19:18
will team spirit win iem rio 2026	3	$182	250	0	+250	open	—	04-19 17:46
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	3	$164	193	193	+0	open	—	06-06 03:23
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	11	$151	143	141	+2	open	—	04-13 00:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	5	$144	100	85	+15	open	—	06-20 00:27
will kanye release bully by march 27	2	$140	177	177	+0	open	—	03-27 12:49
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	4	$134	210	0	+210	open	—	05-07 18:23
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 24corhigher	3	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	04-14 04:06
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	6	$107	100	100	+0	open	—	06-20 00:04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	8	$107	60	60	+0	open	—	05-01 01:24
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	14	$95	59	59	+0	open	—	04-21 04:27
gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	2	$94	56	56	+0	open	—	07-07 02:21
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?	1	$94	96	0	+96	open	—	04-16 05:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	14	$93	97	97	+0	open	—	04-19 00:11
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	20	$87	242	236	+6	open	—	04-12 22:48
grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	1	$72	79	0	+79	open	—	07-06 18:09
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	6	$72	125	50	+75	open	—	04-30 17:03
will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	1	$70	93	0	+93	open	—	06-27 00:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 17:47:17	will a new gemini flagship be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	63	69¢	$43	0xa61a3c…
07-12 00:49:05	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	163	74¢	$121	0x17216c…
07-12 00:36:23	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x177065…
07-12 00:35:31	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x2b626a…
07-12 00:17:29	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	96	74¢	$71	0x338930…
07-12 00:17:29	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	96	74¢	$71	0x0f613f…
07-12 00:17:26	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x0d31c2…
07-12 00:05:08	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	6	74¢	$5	0x5371b6…
07-10 18:04:08	will a new gemini flagship be released by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x514a06…
07-07 14:20:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	SELL	33	16¢	$5	0x498a14…
07-07 02:21:34	gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0xb1a9e9…
07-07 02:21:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	SELL	56	81¢	$45	0xc39360…
07-06 18:09:29	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	Yes	BUY	79	92¢	$72	0xb22f8e…
07-06 14:37:53	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	BUY	56	87¢	$49	0x5f9c9c…
06-30 22:54:14	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x5a14df…
06-27 00:21:34	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 17 2026 20260624195228148 249 148 455 443 813	Yes	BUY	93	75¢	$70	0x18e470…
06-27 00:20:46	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xbbc1dc…
06-27 00:20:28	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 1 2026	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xed753b…
06-26 22:39:50	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	No	SELL	246	53¢	$131	0xc5e317…
06-24 14:33:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	246	81¢	$199	0xa80bc1…
06-20 00:27:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	85	95¢	$81	0x025479…
06-20 00:04:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0xef4285…
06-19 19:05:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	68	63¢	$43	0x3bbd1c…
06-19 19:05:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$2	0x7eabc4…
06-19 19:05:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x67a75a…
06-19 19:05:32	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	29	63¢	$18	0xb3271a…
06-19 13:02:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	67	62¢	$42	0xd82282…
06-19 02:34:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x7563e7…
06-19 02:32:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x890544…
06-19 02:31:01	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0xeb37bb…
06-19 02:30:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x66f73d…
06-14 03:08:25	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0x4182a5…
06-14 02:11:24	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Spurs	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xcf53f9…
06-06 03:23:07	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	SELL	193	33¢	$64	0xec59e1…
06-06 03:19:51	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	114	44¢	$50	0xf9c1f4…
06-06 03:19:00	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	Spurs	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x6afe9c…
05-27 21:14:41	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	SELL	43	39¢	$17	0x60dd8d…
05-18 21:08:33	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	14¢	$11	0xcdb1fa…
05-17 19:24:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xb5d237…
05-17 19:13:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0x43a7f4…
05-17 19:13:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x14d567…
05-17 19:09:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	65	29¢	$19	0x9348fe…
05-17 18:48:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xdc2080…
05-17 03:37:34	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xe4a47b…
05-15 00:26:03	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	305	81¢	$247	0xb09b1a…
05-13 02:30:06	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xcd29e8…
05-13 02:13:40	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd24a2c…
05-13 02:06:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x42ce8f…
05-13 01:57:29	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0xaedfc9…
05-12 18:12:01	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0xdeaa26…
05-09 18:00:27	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	469	75¢	$352	0x9d6cd0…
05-08 19:13:40	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	423	80¢	$339	0xbe1639…
05-08 14:57:32	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	423	87¢	$370	0xc2f124…
05-08 14:57:00	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	SELL	100	13¢	$13	0xa59dea…
05-07 18:23:14	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x4e8757…
05-07 18:23:12	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xd7aa1c…
05-07 18:23:12	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x8e89c8…
05-07 18:23:00	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xa3dbba…
05-07 18:23:00	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x7ee0fc…
05-07 17:52:49	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xc978f9…
05-07 17:52:01	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8b7466…
05-07 17:45:12	Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x063d78…
05-07 14:35:12	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	97	40¢	$39	0xd75e97…
05-07 07:33:54	Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0x70afc2…
05-05 00:44:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x7b6816…
05-04 05:22:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	64¢	$19	0x062bdf…
05-04 04:58:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x8809b9…
05-04 04:12:52	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	64¢	$17	0x74f1c4…
05-04 04:12:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x10e8ca…
05-04 04:08:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x70e115…
05-04 04:04:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xce0847…
05-01 01:24:42	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	58	87¢	$51	0xd8f515…
05-01 01:20:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xa791c0…
05-01 01:18:16	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xa94d88…
05-01 01:18:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xa2ee33…
04-30 17:03:46	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$3	0x1e9e93…
04-30 17:03:28	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	80¢	$33	0x185e3d…
04-30 16:49:08	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x944648…
04-30 16:47:40	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xd56d97…
04-30 16:20:36	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3bab9a…
04-29 23:07:06	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xbafbf2…
04-29 20:17:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x133683…
04-29 20:16:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0xf74f06…
04-29 16:34:00	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x10627c…
04-29 15:22:34	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	SELL	30	15¢	$5	0x3e94c6…
04-29 14:52:16	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0xaef819…
04-29 14:45:40	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xbc3dc4…
04-29 14:42:32	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x85dd51…
04-29 14:42:26	James Comey arrested by April 29?	No	BUY	19	30¢	$6	0xbe23f6…
04-23 19:08:04	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xc9c015…
04-23 19:07:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	84¢	$139	0x387a9a…
04-23 18:53:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	86¢	$143	0x3dd235…
04-23 18:52:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0xfa49a6…
04-23 18:51:54	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xe343a9…
04-23 18:50:44	Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	41	13¢	$5	0x0271e6…
04-23 00:10:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	12	76¢	$9	0x1498a0…
04-22 19:34:24	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	No	BUY	36	81¢	$29	0x47592a…
04-22 19:32:30	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x62c8e9…
04-22 16:34:10	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x6f0351…
04-22 15:33:22	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	77¢	$23	0xd22769…