Frequent-Failure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$962

Unrealized P&L

+$11

Hit rate

87.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$45

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 11-07 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Politics

69% 61% +$1,046

Other

22% 64% -$35

Pop-Culture

5% 50% -$55

Sports

3% 67% +$7

Tech

1% 67% -$1

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+23	$20	93¢	$21	+$1	07-21 06:05
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+11	$10	96¢	$10	+$0	05-07 17:20
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	57¢	$4	-$1	11-05 11:03
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November?	No	+3	$3	96¢	$3	+$0	11-05 11:08
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+7	$3	45¢	$3	+$0	11-05 11:05
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	-83	-$12	2¢	$-2	+$10	07-14 09:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?	No	+2	$1	40¢	$1	$0	10-24 11:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by february 28	2	$767	838	838	+0	Yes	+$667	02-28 18:10
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$450	493	0	+493	Yes	+$43	02-28 21:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$200	218	0	+218	No	+$18	03-10 06:37
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$150	210	0	+210	Yes	+$60	03-16 16:09
will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	2	$150	201	0	+201	Yes	+$51	03-09 06:34
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$115	67	67	+0	Yes	+$15	03-10 06:35
will kanye release bully by april 3	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	03-28 10:17
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$96	60	60	+0	Yes	-$4	03-08 20:23
will kanye release bully by march 27	2	$55	75	0	+75	No	-$55	03-27 02:56
will iran strike israel on march 9	1	$50	52	0	+52	Yes	+$2	03-09 00:16
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	1	$50	100	0	+100	No	-$50	03-09 00:45
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	1	$50	51	0	+51	Yes	+$1	10-24 11:30
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$50	333	0	+333	Yes	+$283	02-27 19:32
will gas hit high 4pt25 by march 31	1	$50	63	0	+63	No	-$50	03-09 06:35
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	1	$50	64	0	+64	No	+$14	03-18 06:31
khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	1	$50	54	0	+54	No	+$4	02-28 21:40
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 20	1	$50	56	0	+56	No	+$6	03-18 06:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	1	$50	63	0	+63	No	+$13	03-09 00:17
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 20	1	$50	52	0	+52	No	+$2	03-18 06:33
will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	2	$31	32	0	+32	Yes	+$1	03-27 19:15
meta above 600 on march 6 2026	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	03-04 06:08
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	2	$20	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	03-12 08:26
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	07-21 06:05
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	10-24 11:26
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	1	$17	20	0	+20	No	-$17	03-28 11:00
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$12	0	83	-83	open	—	07-14 09:46
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$12	21	0	+21	Yes	+$9	07-16 11:49
khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 0 19	1	$10	12	0	+12	No	-$10	03-16 15:56
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	1	$10	17	0	+17	Bibi	-$10	10-24 11:23
Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	10-24 11:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 15:13:57	Will George Russell finish third in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x75601b…
11-05 11:08:37	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0xa9db3d…
11-05 11:05:33	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x9ebaea…
11-05 11:03:06	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x17b788…
10-24 11:36:17	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x805440…
10-24 11:33:42	Will Charles Leclerc finish third in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?	Yes	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x202ffc…
10-24 11:33:27	Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x801d98…
10-24 11:30:32	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x875687…
10-24 11:29:41	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd74cc7…
10-24 11:26:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xc3ef86…
10-24 11:26:00	Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0xbfe103…
10-24 11:23:29	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Opp.	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xcf9645…
07-21 06:05:46	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x24381d…
07-16 11:56:58	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners second half total 4pt5	Under	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x220185…
07-16 11:56:46	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 corners first half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xf1ead1…
07-16 11:53:08	Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xee539d…
07-16 11:49:55	Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xba0d31…
07-16 11:49:05	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x37f0b9…
07-14 09:46:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	15¢	$12	0x868dd7…
07-06 20:55:25	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd734ad…
07-06 20:23:22	Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?	No	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x987762…
07-06 20:08:13	Will United States win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb2c789…
06-08 07:36:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x10e3c1…
05-30 16:16:02	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x30e8c4…
05-16 20:36:24	Will "Europe" be said 10+ times during Eurovision?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc009f1…
05-16 20:22:06	Will "Points" be said 25+ times during Eurovision?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2676df…
05-16 20:19:32	Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0xcd7f0a…
05-16 20:18:57	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x33f7be…
05-07 17:25:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x9c5b2f…
05-07 17:20:28	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xd7c5cf…
04-19 17:15:46	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x21b0c0…
04-19 17:14:56	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x8c3c6c…
04-07 15:11:39	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x1b09f2…
04-07 15:10:55	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x692981…
04-05 18:41:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x8023ea…
03-29 10:04:00	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xa70a02…
03-28 14:38:03	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5675de…
03-28 14:32:33	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x95c2ab…
03-28 11:00:21	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x5a2622…
03-28 10:24:47	israel strike on yemen by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xec7274…
03-28 10:17:59	will kanye release bully by april 3	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x74ff1c…
03-27 19:15:07	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8885f2…
03-27 02:56:35	will kanye release bully by march 27	Yes	BUY	67	74¢	$50	0x2d50b6…
03-27 02:54:09	will kanye release bully by march 27	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9fe7bc…
03-26 07:15:35	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf7e2bf…
03-21 13:57:15	will gold gc hit low 4500 by end of march	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x59c7d0…
03-21 13:56:03	will the percentage change in the sp 500 in q1 2026 be less than 0	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfec2ad…
03-21 13:53:17	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa20b9e…
03-21 13:52:13	bun hei b04 2026 03 21 b04	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x90a13f…
03-21 13:52:07	bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2d3cbc…
03-21 13:51:45	epl bri liv 2026 03 21 liv	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x03bdac…
03-21 13:51:37	epl bri liv 2026 03 21 draw	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2cf096…
03-18 06:33:11	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by march 20	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x966e5e…
03-18 06:32:53	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by march 20	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x2ba4bd…
03-18 06:31:41	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 20	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x3d9a08…
03-18 06:23:25	will larry page be 2nd richest person on march 31	Yes	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x672a9c…
03-16 16:09:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0xe387c7…
03-16 15:56:47	khamenei of tweets march 17 march 24 2026 0 19	Yes	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xf35d58…
03-12 08:26:17	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	14	76¢	$10	0x3fc775…
03-10 21:14:15	will ai or artificial intelligence be said 5 times during the next episode of the all in podcast	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xd79eaf…
03-10 21:11:23	ucl new fcb1 2026 03 10 fcb1	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xe88b36…
03-10 06:38:27	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xba7a59…
03-10 06:37:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xd05905…
03-10 06:35:27	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	67	97¢	$65	0xab993c…
03-10 06:29:35	ucl gal liv1 2026 03 10 liv1	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xf0c330…
03-10 06:29:29	ucl gal liv1 2026 03 10 gal	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe7c791…
03-09 18:45:13	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x42404f…
03-09 11:40:55	next thai prime minister chosen by march 31	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc1d563…
03-09 11:38:39	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1d017f…
03-09 06:35:57	will gas hit high 4pt25 by march 31	Yes	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xb65fd1…
03-09 06:34:57	will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x41b91c…
03-09 00:46:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xe1d878…
03-09 00:45:57	usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x3bbc4e…
03-09 00:23:57	will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	Yes	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0x1896cd…
03-09 00:17:43	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0x2974d6…
03-09 00:16:49	will iran strike israel on march 9	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x15bb3a…
03-08 21:33:13	will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xe8e26a…
03-08 20:27:51	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x9494ca…
03-08 20:26:11	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 8 163	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x7735a0…
03-08 20:23:19	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	60	77¢	$46	0xe0bcfa…
03-04 20:59:29	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xfd93cb…
03-04 20:57:53	will nepal workers peasants party win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election 685 483	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x2f7729…
03-04 20:56:07	will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x62af3a…
03-04 20:51:11	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xb64603…
03-04 06:10:53	will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by march 15	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xbb671c…
03-04 06:09:25	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xaab8ce…
03-04 06:08:43	meta above 600 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x3f6fad…
03-04 06:05:33	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x7f6f25…
03-03 20:53:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x115b71…
02-28 21:40:05	khamenei seen in public by march 14 884 469 913	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x3d5940…
02-28 21:38:09	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	424	94¢	$400	0xe72b2b…
02-28 18:11:05	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xecc873…
02-28 18:10:15	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	SELL	838	85¢	$717	0xed1836…
02-27 19:33:23	Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x79e11c…
02-27 19:32:25	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x57891a…
02-27 19:24:59	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	838	6¢	$50	0xb8c40b…