Gleaming-Caramel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$125

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

93.3%

Resolved

Trades

278

lifetime

Volume

$23.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$85

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-03

last 07-19 19:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

67% 33% +$22

Other

32% 82% +$104

Sports

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes		+52	$14	0¢	$0	$-14	05-16 20:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	8	$1.5K	839	839	+0	open	—	04-22 06:06
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	5	$1.5K	833	833	+0	open	—	04-16 06:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$1.1K	583	583	+0	open	—	07-03 08:36
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	8	$1.1K	1,045	355	+690	open	—	04-12 20:46
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	4	$1.0K	571	571	+0	open	—	06-13 21:22
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	2	$958	500	500	+0	open	—	06-17 06:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	9	$892	504	504	+0	open	—	04-27 10:15
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$836	569	507	+63	open	—	03-27 13:41
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	4	$703	322	451	-129	open	—	06-01 06:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$656	346	346	+0	open	—	07-15 09:07
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	3	$650	1,415	0	+1,415	open	—	04-15 17:55
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	2	$547	300	300	+0	open	—	05-02 02:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	7	$527	511	158	+353	open	—	05-25 17:25
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	5	$475	429	429	+0	open	—	03-08 14:35
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$458	270	270	+0	open	—	06-01 06:48
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	3	$454	351	231	+119	open	—	04-25 19:51
will tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	4	$440	260	260	+0	open	—	04-13 06:33
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$421	222	222	+0	open	—	07-02 11:47
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$415	215	215	+0	open	—	03-14 13:44
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	2	$400	505	0	+505	open	—	03-09 14:28
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$387	207	207	+0	open	—	06-29 23:41
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$335	419	0	+419	open	—	05-16 14:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$306	188	188	+0	open	—	04-12 20:45
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$300	176	176	+0	open	—	03-27 13:40
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$300	343	0	+343	open	—	05-10 10:34
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	2	$299	235	117	+117	open	—	03-03 16:05
will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$289	241	241	+0	open	—	06-26 12:48
us forces enter iran by march 7	2	$263	147	147	+0	open	—	03-08 05:54
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	3	$251	182	90	+92	open	—	03-08 18:29
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	2	$235	147	147	+0	open	—	03-16 10:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 19:44:00	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 0pt5	Under	BUY	22	18¢	$4	0x828315…
07-18 10:58:07	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x31648b…
07-18 09:54:49	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	SELL	37	66¢	$25	0xcae672…
07-18 09:49:46	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 team to advance	France	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x4b7936…
07-17 18:19:43	Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	167	90¢	$150	0x85d507…
07-15 19:35:47	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0x7f4c6d…
07-15 11:21:52	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2bfcd8…
07-15 11:21:11	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0x102d7a…
07-15 11:20:10	wta grabher perelyg 2026 07 15	Julia Grabher	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x3d8b55…
07-15 09:10:59	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	174	69¢	$120	0x11f8d3…
07-15 09:08:32	wta grabher perelyg 2026 07 15	Julia Grabher	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x98c207…
07-15 09:07:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	346	100¢	$345	0x1a4e02…
07-13 10:12:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	98	100¢	$98	0xe88b61…
07-12 19:40:53	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	No	BUY	114	79¢	$90	0xc1117f…
07-12 19:40:26	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xe19125…
07-12 19:40:14	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	Yes	BUY	64	5¢	$3	0x3663d2…
07-12 19:39:26	will ferran torres score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x0156f3…
07-12 17:16:55	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xdb8d4d…
07-12 17:16:02	atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	Jannik Sinner	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x19ba87…
07-11 23:28:05	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	67	89¢	$60	0xd41145…
07-10 21:23:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	27	56¢	$15	0x5deac8…
07-10 21:23:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0x182065…
07-08 18:03:43	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	Yes	BUY	48	6¢	$3	0x464dc8…
07-08 18:03:23	will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x7d3b1f…
07-08 08:58:07	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	224	89¢	$200	0x848db4…
07-05 19:00:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	81	74¢	$60	0xf5e83a…
07-05 19:00:50	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	31	39¢	$12	0xad7b01…
07-03 08:36:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	583	100¢	$581	0xbe5a0d…
07-03 08:35:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0xe9027b…
07-02 11:47:04	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	222	100¢	$221	0xa4d84e…
07-01 14:44:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	129	86¢	$111	0x3e54f4…
06-29 23:41:38	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	207	100¢	$207	0xc25f45…
06-29 12:20:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	98	92¢	$90	0x064546…
06-29 08:40:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$39	0x52d92d…
06-26 12:48:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	241	37¢	$89	0x31873f…
06-25 10:55:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x6313e7…
06-24 11:00:08	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	241	83¢	$200	0x5a8dfd…
06-22 11:10:11	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	207	87¢	$180	0x8c1d7a…
06-21 22:25:58	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0xedaeb8…
06-21 11:33:37	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x2d6132…
06-19 09:46:59	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x4c8829…
06-18 08:54:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0xa3ac20…
06-17 11:52:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x959aa8…
06-17 10:35:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x78b575…
06-17 06:52:02	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0x0efb3e…
06-14 22:06:55	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	18	75¢	$13	0xa10ee3…
06-14 22:00:46	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	19	75¢	$14	0x6403c2…
06-14 21:56:19	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0x2daa73…
06-14 21:53:16	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	37	75¢	$28	0x294fb9…
06-14 21:47:42	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0xa9059a…
06-14 21:41:09	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xd8cad8…
06-13 21:23:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x733da9…
06-13 21:22:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	SELL	571	100¢	$569	0xdaeee3…
06-13 12:18:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x3e66f9…
06-13 12:18:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x06b7ab…
06-13 07:52:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x04d02f…
06-12 14:04:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xea37eb…
06-12 13:41:58	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	Yes	BUY	32	19¢	$6	0x37363d…
06-12 09:02:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	62	48¢	$30	0x6f2699…
06-09 17:54:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0xfa2b7d…
06-08 13:35:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	198	81¢	$160	0x0e0edb…
06-08 13:27:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	148	81¢	$120	0xe94dca…
06-08 09:58:21	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xb11859…
06-07 19:42:13	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x3b00fe…
06-07 19:41:57	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0x709380…
06-07 05:39:22	atp cobolli zverev 2026 06 07	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xd8ee47…
06-07 05:38:46	atp shimabu rodiono 2026 06 07	Jurij Rodionov	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x4d227f…
06-06 13:17:06	wta chwalin andreev 2026 06 06	Mirra Andreeva	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0xaeb66c…
06-04 16:05:54	atp arnaldi cobolli 2026 06 05	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	38	69¢	$26	0x6dbd3d…
06-04 16:05:03	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Jakub Mensik	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xef7bad…
06-04 16:04:09	wta shnaide chwalin 2026 06 04	Maja Chwalinska	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x225a09…
06-04 14:18:10	wta kostyuk andreev 2026 06 04	Marta Kostyuk	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x083207…
06-04 05:22:16	atp arnaldi cobolli 2026 06 05	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0xeb3f61…
06-02 09:29:39	Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska	Anna Kalinskaya	BUY	24	51¢	$12	0x2366f4…
06-02 09:28:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x71b431…
06-01 06:57:56	Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev	Rafael Jodar	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x6c43cb…
06-01 06:57:06	Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry	Diane Parry	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x18369d…
06-01 06:48:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	270	100¢	$269	0x30b2ec…
06-01 06:48:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	451	100¢	$450	0xf3eccf…
05-30 19:54:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	35¢	$12	0x089b78…
05-30 19:54:00	Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova	Anastasia Potapova	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x40e74b…
05-30 12:56:15	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x686629…
05-30 11:23:05	Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova	Amanda Anisimova	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x43690c…
05-29 21:41:23	Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova	Anastasia Potapova	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0xf8d6c4…
05-28 19:12:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	150	79¢	$119	0xdff07b…
05-28 17:55:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$119	0x0f54b1…
05-28 17:47:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	180	74¢	$134	0xad75d9…
05-28 10:05:07	Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova	Anastasia Potapova	BUY	38	80¢	$30	0x1bcc6d…
05-27 14:43:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0x370368…
05-27 09:32:32	Roland Garros WTA: Caty McNally vs Belinda Bencic	Belinda Bencic	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xf0c6b6…
05-27 09:28:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	34¢	$36	0x24d927…
05-27 08:18:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	151	79¢	$119	0x98e388…
05-25 17:25:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	158	99¢	$157	0x6b1585…
05-24 14:19:16	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	Yes	BUY	16	48¢	$8	0x95a9b8…
05-24 14:16:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0x6f568a…
05-24 09:04:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x88aec7…
05-23 21:00:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$14	0x1c40d9…
05-23 11:20:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x0e3615…
05-22 21:45:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0xbaa207…
05-22 21:43:14	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x9a4387…