Sophisticated-Hat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7.24K

Unrealized P&L

-$274

Hit rate

70.9%

Resolved

540

Trades

2,981

lifetime

Volume

$191.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$64

Open exposure

$228

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-25 14:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 185 days

Categories

Other

70% 43% -$4,589

Politics

24% 76% -$2,072

Crypto

6% 56% -$449

Sports

0% 43% -$126

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+5,000	$480	4¢	$188	-$292	06-28 08:46
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+390	$22	10¢	$41	+$19	09-09 16:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 340 359	27	$15.4K	8,226	7,947	+279	No	-$118	03-13 12:49
will mrbeasts next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 734	53	$14.1K	7,907	8,097	-189	Yes	+$519	03-22 15:17
elon musk of tweets march 14 march 16 40 64	29	$12.1K	7,013	7,013	+0	Yes	+$550	03-16 12:04
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 240 259	13	$11.3K	5,767	5,849	-82	No	+$239	03-17 11:51
will mrbeast hit 474 million subscribers by march 31 977 964	110	$11.1K	8,332	7,629	+704	Yes	-$2,682	03-31 12:32
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 0 99	14	$9.4K	4,711	4,751	-40	No	+$78	03-13 06:39
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	16	$6.6K	6,600	0	+6,600	No	+$13	08-18 12:00
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 0 39	8	$5.8K	3,059	3,083	-24	No	+$364	04-15 07:41
donald trump of truth social posts march 13 march 20 100 119	11	$5.0K	2,518	2,517	+1	Yes	+$69	03-20 15:24
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	9	$4.0K	3,977	0	+3,977	No	+$19	08-04 15:59
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	21	$3.2K	2,060	2,060	+0	No	-$371	10-23 20:01
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	18	$2.8K	1,446	1,446	+0	No	+$111	06-26 14:09
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	22	$2.6K	1,360	1,360	+0	No	+$73	07-28 13:57
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	5	$2.6K	1,338	1,338	+0	No	+$52	08-31 15:31
will mrbeasts next video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4	3	$2.5K	1,281	1,281	+0	Yes	+$64	03-25 15:55
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 65 89	3	$2.5K	1,352	1,352	+0	No	+$242	03-21 10:21
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 363	43	$2.3K	2,005	2,005	+0	Yes	+$230	03-13 20:01
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 432	21	$2.2K	1,630	1,630	+0	No	-$572	03-22 10:42
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	4	$1.9K	1,948	0	+1,948	Yes	+$5	10-24 19:32
will mrbeasts next video get 67 million or more views on day 5	28	$1.9K	990	990	+0	Yes	+$107	03-11 23:55
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	13	$1.7K	1,254	1,254	+0	Yes	-$350	06-30 13:25
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	17	$1.6K	839	839	+0	No	+$15	06-22 19:10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	19	$1.5K	847	847	+0	No	+$131	07-24 08:17
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?	6	$1.5K	792	792	+0	No	+$36	07-18 06:47
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	4	$1.5K	911	911	+0	No	-$158	02-06 16:23
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	23	$1.5K	942	942	+0	Yes	+$274	02-06 16:24
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	6	$1.4K	1,414	0	+1,414	No	+$7	08-19 18:01
andrew tate of tweets march 10 march 17 2026 0 99	50	$1.4K	5,451	5,451	+0	Yes	-$565	03-17 15:40
will ansem reach 0pt4 before 2027	14	$1.4K	785	785	+0	Yes	+$176	07-06 16:31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	17	$1.3K	766	766	+0	Yes	-$91	06-13 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 14:00:06	Will US gas hit $4.30 (High) the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	27	2¢	$1	0xd50724…
10-25 14:00:06	Will US gas hit $4.30 (High) the week of October 19?	Yes	BUY	273	2¢	$5	0x2859c9…
10-24 19:32:05	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x4a30bf…
10-24 18:42:50	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	750	100¢	$748	0xc16f0a…
10-24 18:20:41	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	819	100¢	$817	0x1feb50…
10-24 18:20:33	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	100¢	$347	0xd0b20a…
10-24 10:52:32	Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x3224b2…
10-24 02:33:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x79b532…
10-23 20:01:29	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	184	100¢	$184	0x408ffe…
10-23 20:00:03	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $145 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x79278e…
10-23 19:47:32	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $145 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xcd21bd…
10-23 19:45:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x97ff20…
10-23 18:42:44	will mu dip to 870 by october 19 2026 from october 23	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3b94dc…
10-23 17:01:42	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xfff30f…
10-23 12:46:56	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6b7edb…
10-23 12:28:27	Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	99	100¢	$98	0x5a87dc…
10-23 11:47:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	1¢	$4	0x63325b…
10-23 11:20:26	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,485	2¢	$52	0xfba768…
10-23 06:00:09	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	84	82¢	$69	0x41e993…
10-22 12:11:27	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0x68d86b…
10-22 11:53:17	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0x00ca60…
10-22 11:52:53	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	93¢	$85	0x7c1fef…
10-22 08:45:29	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0x2ed419…
10-20 18:49:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	11¢	$22	0x910102…
10-19 15:46:06	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	68¢	$11	0xc7e0c8…
10-19 05:39:23	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xf9eb76…
10-19 05:37:21	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0x61f664…
10-19 03:59:24	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	83¢	$27	0x5bb0c9…
10-19 03:29:18	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	83¢	$3	0xf2e15b…
10-19 03:29:09	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xbbe346…
10-19 03:29:09	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	85¢	$19	0x419d94…
10-19 02:24:18	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x48517c…
10-19 00:32:05	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	85¢	$58	0x73afd8…
10-18 22:03:08	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xed11d1…
10-18 21:52:35	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$13	0x144f84…
10-18 20:10:23	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	500	97¢	$487	0xb06349…
10-18 19:58:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	252	98¢	$247	0xe9085a…
10-18 19:58:39	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0xe3441e…
10-18 18:23:59	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0xf6c38c…
10-18 18:16:54	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0x8e7940…
10-18 18:09:15	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x1a84cd…
10-18 14:51:29	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0xae5288…
10-18 10:53:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2d4a55…
10-18 10:12:12	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	82¢	$14	0xe8aa99…
10-18 07:09:59	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	82¢	$32	0xcfd5db…
10-18 07:03:59	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	82¢	$14	0x679b38…
10-17 19:12:51	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,676	72¢	$1,207	0x573409…
10-17 18:46:42	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0xb1ddc3…
10-17 18:37:00	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	97¢	$67	0xdc7d91…
10-17 18:36:41	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x31f2ac…
10-17 18:36:33	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xeb9728…
10-17 18:36:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	99¢	$76	0x0a00e9…
10-17 18:35:02	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xecf460…
10-17 18:33:42	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe1da8c…
10-17 18:33:24	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb75a69…
10-17 18:30:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	98¢	$296	0x2b5405…
10-17 18:29:53	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x3e2d70…
10-17 18:29:36	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	97¢	$118	0xd80b6e…
10-17 16:18:15	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x111967…
10-17 09:10:50	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x5a4241…
10-16 20:00:08	will spcx dip to 142 50 by october 12 2026 from october 15	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x000d9d…
10-16 19:55:03	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $140-$145 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xaceba3…
10-16 19:09:38	will russia target kyiv on october 17 2026	Yes	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x5f4c41…
10-16 18:54:05	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of October 12 above $215?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xf70c60…
10-16 18:52:50	will mu dip to 870 by october 12 2026 from october 15	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xe726ec…
10-16 07:09:28	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x7ce6ff…
10-16 03:51:18	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	96¢	$65	0x49c47d…
10-15 16:18:53	will ukraine target moscow on october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0xaa61e6…
10-15 14:47:59	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xa04ef0…
10-15 14:47:59	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x73df85…
10-15 14:47:59	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x343eb8…
10-15 13:30:14	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $150-$155 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xedcae9…
10-15 08:17:22	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xdfa4f8…
10-14 16:00:54	will spcx reach 165 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xdc650b…
10-14 06:32:19	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x9ac171…
10-14 06:32:14	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xb0434e…
10-14 06:31:28	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xf24596…
10-14 06:26:10	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x0b6cec…
10-14 05:15:13	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x964f5b…
10-14 05:15:10	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x1bc4b4…
10-13 16:59:16	Will SpaceX (SPCX) finish week of October 12 above $135?	Yes	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x07b246…
10-13 15:56:40	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	SELL	249	93¢	$231	0x4d099d…
10-13 14:19:44	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $160-$165 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0xdd5a5d…
10-13 13:30:37	Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xc049d4…
10-13 13:01:26	will spcx dip to 162 50 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x4c50cf…
10-13 11:24:16	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0x793164…
10-13 11:24:13	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	195	89¢	$173	0xdda9b6…
10-12 17:51:12	will spcx dip to 162 50 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x12b6f2…
10-12 17:41:35	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xfa89c6…
10-12 17:41:11	will spcx reach 165 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xb95268…
10-12 17:40:48	will spcx dip to 162 50 by october 12 2026 from october 12	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0xb1eed1…
10-12 08:33:46	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x0b22dc…
10-12 05:07:50	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	96¢	$89	0xfe1c68…
10-12 04:56:44	Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xf49b3b…
10-10 08:29:19	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$20	0x605e48…
10-08 01:32:28	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x199d31…
09-28 04:29:47	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	370	100¢	$370	0x622be5…
09-28 04:29:42	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x430db8…
09-28 04:29:33	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x6bc1aa…
09-28 04:28:45	Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xeb4995…