Realized P&L
+$1.84K
Unrealized P&L
+$86
Hit rate
57.8%
Resolved
7,754
Trades
10,697
lifetime
Volume
$59.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$1.11K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 15:24
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 293 days
Categories
Sports
43% 53% +$854
Other
32% 46% -$592
Politics
24% 46% +$1,617
Tech
2% 32% -$40
Crypto
0% 60% +$3
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 101 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +166 $131 64¢ $105 -$25 09-15 03:22
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +106 $72 98¢ $104 +$33 09-13 23:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +143 $95 59¢ $84 -$11 10-19 06:14
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -214 -$94 38¢ $-81 +$13 10-24 15:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +55 $35 97¢ $53 +$18 08-31 20:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +77 $47 62¢ $47 +$0 10-28 11:35
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +122 $66 34¢ $41 -$25 09-21 17:05
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +55 $30 74¢ $41 +$10 07-16 08:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? No +55 $37 74¢ $40 +$4 10-09 20:03
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? Yes +132 $34 29¢ $38 +$3 09-07 03:17
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +82 $26 44¢ $36 +$11 10-27 13:26
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? No +55 $39 64¢ $35 -$4 10-14 16:43
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +33 $10 98¢ $32 +$22 09-18 08:23
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +44 -$21 69¢ $30 +$51 10-21 07:16
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes +40 $23 72¢ $29 +$6 10-18 07:25
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +33 $20 80¢ $26 +$6 10-05 04:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +55 $27 46¢ $26 -$2 10-23 22:16
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +55 $16 44¢ $24 +$8 10-21 07:18
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +33 $18 72¢ $24 +$6 10-04 21:08
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +167 $25 14¢ $22 -$2 09-07 03:23
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? Yes +55 $31 40¢ $22 -$9 10-21 02:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +55 $33 40¢ $22 -$11 09-14 00:03
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +22 $5 95¢ $21 +$16 10-09 23:18
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 Yes +143 $37 15¢ $21 -$16 08-09 09:27
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +33 $22 53¢ $17 -$5 09-15 14:20
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +50 $25 32¢ $16 -$9 08-30 09:12
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +50 $25 32¢ $16 -$9 08-30 10:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +33 $10 49¢ $16 +$7 09-21 19:34
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +61 $20 26¢ $16 -$4 09-21 17:06
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +33 $11 47¢ $16 +$4 08-30 09:13