Finished-Thorn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$235

Unrealized P&L

-$72

Hit rate

57.8%

Resolved

161

Trades

469

lifetime

Volume

$5.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$56

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 09-22 10:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

61% 55% -$240

Politics

16% 44% -$89

Sports

11% 52% +$111

Crypto

10% 27% +$0

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$8

Tech

1% 50% -$25

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	No	+25	$17	88¢	$22	+$5	06-06 23:36
will indonesia recognize israel by december 31	No	+15	$13	98¢	$15	+$2	06-05 09:54
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	+44	$20	24¢	$11	-$9	06-07 15:14
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+212	$48	2¢	$3	-$45	06-08 00:46
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	+30	$9	10¢	$3	-$6	06-05 11:04
hyperbeat fdv above 25m one day after launch	Yes	+35	$20	7¢	$2	-$18	06-09 10:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07?	2	$232	133	133	+0	Yes	+$32	06-07 21:32
will trump or biden be said during the first episode of the joe rogan experience this week february 1	1	$155	181	0	+181	Yes	+$26	01-25 12:17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	3	$131	72	72	+0	No	+$9	06-14 12:19
will trump say biden during fed chair announcement	2	$126	200	0	+200	No	-$126	01-30 11:57
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$111	73	73	+0	Yes	+$33	07-20 05:49
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	1	$100	1,050	0	+1,050	No	-$100	01-14 09:58
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	1	$100	208	0	+208	No	-$100	06-14 13:33
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	1	$100	169	0	+169	No	-$100	06-13 20:48
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5	3	$95	56	56	+0	Under	+$15	06-07 21:32
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15?	2	$93	53	53	+0	No	+$13	06-15 21:25
will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	17	$92	77	77	+0	Yes	+$0	06-13 20:46
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	4	$89	51	51	+0	No	+$9	07-19 08:58
Spread: Italy (-1.5)	3	$86	47	46	+0	Greece	+$6	06-07 21:32
tread fdv above 40m one day after launch	20	$78	152	152	+0	Yes	-$8	06-04 22:14
will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	2	$75	41	41	+0	No	+$5	06-15 21:23
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	2	$74	62	62	+0	Yes	-$2	06-13 20:48
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11?	3	$72	39	39	+0	No	+$6	06-17 15:36
will russia enter novooleksandrivka by june 30 2026	18	$65	55	55	+0	No	-$5	06-13 20:46
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	4	$64	39	39	+0	Egypt	+$14	06-15 21:25
will ethereum dip to 1700 on june 4	15	$63	112	112	+0	No	-$56	06-04 22:13
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	3	$61	188	0	+188	No	-$61	06-17 09:28
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	1	$60	98	0	+98	Norway	+$38	06-15 21:29
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	1	$60	72	0	+72	No	-$60	06-13 19:00
Will Flavio Cobolli Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	2	$57	34	34	+0	Yes	+$8	09-07 08:12
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5	3	$56	74	0	+74	Under	+$18	06-06 13:47
Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?	2	$54	40	40	+0	open	—	07-20 05:48
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?	2	$51	28	28	+0	No	+$2	06-14 12:19
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	2	$51	98	0	+98	No	-$51	06-07 10:25
will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	9	$51	64	64	+0	No	+$2	06-04 22:14
will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	3	$49	41	41	+0	Yes	-$1	08-12 07:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 10:30:57	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xbeb487…
09-07 08:12:52	Will Flavio Cobolli Qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x73f50f…
09-04 06:43:34	Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	1¢	$1	0xa2410f…
09-04 06:43:19	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?	No	SELL	49	2¢	$1	0xf64360…
09-04 06:43:09	Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0xccd00e…
08-25 13:29:16	Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	40	74¢	$30	0x1894ab…
08-20 06:02:48	will russia target kyiv on august 25 2026 20260810162903060	Yes	BUY	81	49¢	$40	0x4dcb22…
08-20 04:18:34	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x76a303…
08-19 14:14:13	will nvda reach 240 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	79	24¢	$19	0xd126ed…
08-19 14:14:13	will nvda reach 240 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb5362c…
08-18 05:19:16	will russia target kyiv on august 25 2026 20260810162903060	Yes	BUY	0	49¢	$0	0xb4d8bf…
08-17 17:59:46	will flavio cobolli qualify for the nitto atp finals 2026 20260728191143797	Yes	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x4061fb…
08-17 17:48:57	skc zul riy 2026 08 17 spread away 1pt5	Al Zulfi Saudi Club	BUY	1	55¢	$1	0xa9f278…
08-17 17:48:52	skc zul riy 2026 08 17 spread away 1pt5	Al Zulfi Saudi Club	BUY	39	55¢	$22	0xeee0b5…
08-17 17:48:52	skc zul riy 2026 08 17 spread away 1pt5	Al Zulfi Saudi Club	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x62531b…
08-17 17:45:10	skc anw ahl 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	78	40¢	$31	0x311869…
08-17 17:44:04	skc anw ahl 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x32be53…
08-17 17:44:01	skc anw ahl 2026 08 17 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	18	40¢	$7	0x94ef39…
08-17 17:40:15	will meta dip to 520 in august 2026	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xe6b3a4…
08-14 07:53:49	will coin reach 160 in august 2026	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x324940…
08-14 05:06:01	chi sha hai 2026 08 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	22	70¢	$15	0xb63199…
08-14 04:03:09	chi sha hai 2026 08 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x0c9033…
08-14 03:44:48	chi sha hai 2026 08 14 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x4e6614…
08-13 22:03:30	will coin reach 160 in august 2026	No	BUY	91	29¢	$26	0xaafb8f…
08-13 19:55:07	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 in August?	No	BUY	1	29¢	$0	0xd66d25…
08-13 19:55:04	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $160 in August?	No	BUY	29	29¢	$8	0x6788e5…
08-13 09:13:57	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xde0c5f…
08-12 14:28:36	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x4eb2a1…
08-12 07:57:24	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	47	72¢	$34	0xbb43bf…
08-12 07:56:24	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	SELL	41	58¢	$24	0xadd6db…
08-11 22:38:24	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x03f96a…
08-11 17:53:13	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	11	61¢	$7	0xd64c4a…
08-11 09:17:16	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0x562802…
08-10 15:05:03	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x82d364…
08-10 13:39:00	Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?	No	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x342ff7…
08-10 09:20:36	swe sir bro 2026 08 10 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0xf2fa36…
08-10 09:14:25	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	No	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0xaafb7f…
07-20 05:49:10	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	73	99¢	$72	0xcd7a66…
07-20 05:48:54	Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x1b597e…
07-20 05:48:16	Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0xd7d626…
07-19 08:58:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	SELL	51	97¢	$49	0xa803d8…
07-18 21:25:30	Exact Score: France 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xaa4615…
07-09 20:07:35	Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x69aa96…
06-30 20:27:22	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x57ee42…
06-30 17:07:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xc4b55a…
06-30 16:17:16	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 goals erling haaland gte2	Yes	BUY	105	19¢	$20	0xc512fd…
06-26 14:19:43	Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France?	Yes	BUY	119	6¢	$7	0x814aa8…
06-26 11:21:43	Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0x312e42…
06-21 17:36:13	will fallen win a s tier event before june 30	Yes	BUY	137	13¢	$18	0x5eef5b…
06-21 15:22:04	will fallen win a s tier event before june 30	Yes	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0x780e0e…
06-21 07:34:47	will nicolas pp score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	84	26¢	$22	0x731c6c…
06-20 22:34:16	will nicolas pp score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x3db185…
06-19 22:02:59	will morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 fifa world cup group stage 20260612152622436	No	BUY	91	22¢	$20	0xe5c628…
06-19 21:26:46	will florian wirtz score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145452359	Yes	BUY	51	68¢	$35	0x4378d2…
06-19 17:41:01	fifwc nor sen 2026 06 22 btts first half	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x59424a…
06-18 23:56:13	will drake have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xc4c6cc…
06-18 22:14:07	will vinicius jrpt score 3 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145257759	No	BUY	74	34¢	$25	0x7609af…
06-18 21:49:10	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 corners first half total 3pt5	Over	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0x1af469…
06-18 21:40:10	will amzn dip to 232 in june 2026	No	SELL	37	63¢	$23	0x9bedc5…
06-18 21:37:05	will 7 matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260610210228792	Yes	BUY	121	33¢	$40	0x738034…
06-18 01:05:14	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 team total away 1pt5	Under	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x2e0f86…
06-17 22:27:44	makerfield by election restore britain receives 10 20260609002937160	No	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0x2c6585…
06-17 22:04:01	fifwc uzb col 2026 06 17 team total home 1pt5	Under	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xeda1a7…
06-17 15:36:14	joao felix 20260609175357523	No	SELL	39	98¢	$39	0x192277…
06-17 12:05:50	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x83838e…
06-17 12:02:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	17	79¢	$14	0xb710d3…
06-17 12:01:49	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 corners team away 2pt5	Under	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0x16dd2d…
06-17 10:53:50	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0xaa93bc…
06-17 10:52:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x1ce3da…
06-17 10:52:05	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xf4df94…
06-17 10:33:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x859ca4…
06-17 10:32:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0x5f4514…
06-17 09:57:25	will netherlands reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149729	Yes	BUY	104	22¢	$23	0x864cd9…
06-17 09:29:02	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	73	54¢	$39	0xea0888…
06-17 09:28:22	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	49	22¢	$11	0xe911d4…
06-17 09:16:28	mlb det cle 2026 06 14 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x8ab3f5…
06-16 21:56:08	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 goals antonio nusa gte1	Yes	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x8f77f8…
06-15 21:29:27	Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Norway	BUY	98	61¢	$60	0xfedba0…
06-15 21:25:30	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0xb34983…
06-15 21:25:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15?	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xbd7a8b…
06-15 21:24:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xde5c8c…
06-15 21:23:58	will ethereum dip to 1300 in june 2026	No	SELL	41	97¢	$40	0x5a477a…
06-15 18:07:09	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	No	BUY	61	66¢	$40	0x29c2f1…
06-15 13:32:31	will googl reach 400 in june 2026	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x5f1503…
06-15 12:25:27	wti closes above 82 on june 15 2026	No	BUY	53	76¢	$40	0xe696e2…
06-15 11:43:13	fifwc rsa kr 2026 06 24 team total home 1pt5	Under	BUY	32	81¢	$26	0x9406c3…
06-15 10:59:37	South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x99c61a…
06-15 09:29:52	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	64	37¢	$24	0x15c55c…
06-15 09:28:33	fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	61	32¢	$19	0xe854e7…
06-15 09:09:09	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	Yes	BUY	74	35¢	$26	0x36803c…
06-15 08:39:55	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x38ebe4…
06-15 07:03:55	joao felix 20260609175357523	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xaeed11…
06-15 06:59:54	Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Egypt	BUY	11	64¢	$7	0xd654d0…
06-15 06:59:04	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x026d8f…
06-15 06:54:16	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 spread home 1pt5	Egypt	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x9afe31…
06-15 05:59:40	Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x566641…
06-15 01:21:12	will ecuador reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120752	Yes	BUY	66	38¢	$25	0x4a5865…
06-14 22:15:42	atp rublev hurkacz 2026 06 15	Hubert Hurkacz	BUY	44	45¢	$20	0x5be2d3…
06-14 22:10:28	will belgium reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134491	Yes	BUY	69	36¢	$25	0x4f9162…
06-14 21:25:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	BUY	49	82¢	$40	0x1db829…