Harmless-Detective — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$913

Unrealized P&L

-$306

Hit rate

76.9%

Resolved

Trades

116

lifetime

Volume

$8.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$70

Open exposure

$286

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Politics

86% 53% +$735

Other

14% 50% +$178

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	+200	$49	35¢	$70	+$21	09-17 00:13
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+1,805	$303	4¢	$67	-$236	06-28 01:20
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+450	$94	14¢	$61	-$34	06-17 17:01
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+2,151	-$31	3¢	$55	+$86	10-27 19:08
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+562	$129	5¢	$28	-$101	10-27 11:55
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Yes	+45	$6	7¢	$3	-$3	06-16 19:45
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+2,154	$41	0¢	$2	-$39	09-03 08:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	+$110	04-03 14:14
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$732	2,119	1,119	+1,000	Yes	-$114	04-05 11:16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$580	526	526	+0	Yes	+$380	02-28 19:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$420	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-23 12:34
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	2	$362	267	267	+0	open	—	10-28 12:29
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	5	$354	327	327	+0	Yes	+$58	05-08 11:31
will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	3	$337	315	315	+0	Yes	+$104	06-17 14:41
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	8	$303	1,805	0	+1,805	open	—	06-28 01:20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$290	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$50	05-25 00:24
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	4	$278	247	247	+0	Yes	+$104	04-14 14:32
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	3	$268	206	206	+0	Yes	+$108	03-01 23:27
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$261	1,562	1,000	+562	open	—	10-27 11:55
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	7	$249	1,001	1,001	+0	No	+$152	04-08 22:23
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$228	130	130	+0	open	—	10-28 08:10
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	2	$221	213	213	+0	No	+$121	04-08 22:43
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$192	4,640	2,489	+2,151	open	—	10-27 19:08
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	3	$181	3,818	0	+3,818	No	-$181	04-25 18:33
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	2	$138	200	200	+0	Yes	+$78	06-17 14:38
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$125	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 08:10
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	1	$100	353	0	+353	Yes	+$253	01-01 16:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$96	141	141	+0	open	—	08-01 21:15
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$94	450	0	+450	open	—	06-17 17:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$94	218	218	+0	No	-$6	04-12 08:24
will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	2	$78	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$78	06-17 17:41
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$72	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$4	04-12 08:23
Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?	3	$57	247	247	+0	Yes	-$53	04-15 13:50
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	2	$56	303	0	+303	No	-$56	01-12 02:12
will another country recognize somaliland by march 31	1	$50	252	0	+252	No	-$50	01-01 16:52
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	1	$49	200	0	+200	open	—	09-17 00:13
will iran recognize israel by december 31	1	$45	500	0	+500	open	—	06-05 09:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 12:29:26	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	267	98¢	$262	0x4b7d44…
10-28 08:10:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0x409660…
10-28 08:10:05	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	130	98¢	$128	0x5498fe…
10-27 20:04:11	Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0xa43f4c…
10-27 20:01:39	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x1bb315…
10-27 20:01:02	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	267	37¢	$100	0x2547c5…
10-27 19:08:24	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	441	2¢	$7	0x2561d7…
10-27 19:07:44	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$3	0xfbbd13…
10-27 19:04:24	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	556	2¢	$10	0x623113…
10-27 11:55:27	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	312	8¢	$25	0x3af986…
10-27 11:55:12	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,394	2¢	$25	0xf0b6e5…
10-26 21:57:45	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0xac5018…
10-26 21:57:29	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	1,092	2¢	$25	0x8acdee…
09-17 00:13:45	Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	BUY	200	25¢	$49	0xc70648…
09-03 08:22:27	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x04f1bc…
09-03 08:20:01	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	85	3¢	$2	0xd18b3f…
09-02 18:11:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0x599d4f…
09-02 18:11:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x2f7b87…
08-01 21:22:08	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	1,000	7¢	$66	0x86f819…
08-01 21:20:11	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	1,948	1¢	$10	0xa984e3…
08-01 21:15:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	141	36¢	$51	0x39a2c5…
07-23 12:34:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	29¢	$290	0x0d9ed3…
06-28 01:20:22	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	420	11¢	$46	0x79e3d0…
06-25 23:37:08	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9e1832…
06-25 23:36:46	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xfa7210…
06-17 17:41:17	will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$43	0x119d55…
06-17 17:40:28	will mojtaba khamenei sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950074	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$35	0x5e7deb…
06-17 17:01:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	17¢	$42	0x6b3cc3…
06-17 16:19:05	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x6bc9c9…
06-17 16:18:13	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	300	12¢	$36	0xb3820b…
06-17 14:41:29	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	SELL	299	70¢	$210	0x7f4251…
06-17 14:40:40	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	SELL	16	70¢	$11	0x5445f4…
06-17 14:38:19	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	SELL	200	54¢	$108	0xd4eae1…
06-17 00:22:55	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	83	14¢	$12	0x65e674…
06-16 23:28:08	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x12516a…
06-16 22:20:29	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xc55233…
06-16 20:00:37	Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x2d232d…
06-16 19:51:23	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	11	14¢	$1	0x8e0e0e…
06-16 19:46:11	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xb137d2…
06-16 19:45:05	Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Yes	BUY	45	13¢	$6	0x950077…
06-16 19:43:37	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xdf3cdd…
06-16 19:42:58	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8680c7…
06-16 19:41:55	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	94	14¢	$13	0x1a8361…
06-16 19:40:53	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x47ab2d…
06-16 19:36:53	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	500	16¢	$80	0x70f2f8…
06-16 19:34:11	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0xcf9ca3…
06-16 19:33:47	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	46	4¢	$2	0x51cf67…
06-16 19:32:58	will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	Yes	BUY	315	37¢	$116	0x6fecb8…
06-16 19:32:34	will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x930312…
06-16 19:31:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x366137…
06-16 19:30:28	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$14	0x839488…
06-16 19:30:17	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$14	0x3a26c6…
06-14 05:32:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	141	32¢	$45	0xa9666e…
06-05 09:20:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x14422e…
06-05 09:18:45	will iran recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	500	9¢	$45	0xefeadb…
06-04 04:13:28	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x3b0024…
06-04 04:13:15	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	90	11¢	$10	0xad7ad1…
05-29 11:25:09	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	17¢	$42	0x2fb9e0…
05-25 00:24:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	SELL	1,000	17¢	$170	0x93da71…
05-24 15:53:04	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	453	20¢	$91	0x779bfb…
05-24 15:52:30	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x835906…
05-24 15:52:20	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	350	20¢	$70	0xb05582…
05-24 15:46:37	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	177	20¢	$35	0xa285ed…
05-24 13:10:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x084e9c…
05-08 11:31:09	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	327	63¢	$206	0xfd755b…
05-04 18:45:06	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x549edb…
05-01 07:35:26	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	2,489	4¢	$111	0x0184e9…
04-28 20:30:28	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	981	1¢	$10	0xcaae54…
04-25 18:33:12	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x93ed63…
04-22 21:05:52	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,107	5¢	$100	0x4e0e22…
04-19 12:56:34	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x78ca56…
04-19 12:56:26	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	41¢	$17	0xa1d821…
04-19 12:54:36	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x22efbc…
04-19 12:33:50	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,678	5¢	$80	0x74868b…
04-15 13:50:32	Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?	No	SELL	247	1¢	$2	0xab1bc6…
04-14 14:32:57	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	239	77¢	$185	0xd4d8e2…
04-14 12:54:31	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	79¢	$6	0x82c5d8…
04-12 13:08:03	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	BUY	147	45¢	$66	0x1744e2…
04-12 13:06:55	Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?	No	BUY	148	9¢	$14	0x47efed…
04-12 08:24:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	218	20¢	$44	0x97c08a…
04-12 08:23:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$38	0xb3c32b…
04-08 22:43:53	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	213	80¢	$171	0xb72f1f…
04-08 22:23:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	245	20¢	$49	0xc5bef5…
04-08 22:22:57	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	176	20¢	$35	0x06bd2c…
04-08 21:45:03	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	198	20¢	$40	0x40b1ab…
04-08 21:20:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	228	20¢	$46	0x444a3b…
04-08 21:19:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	55	20¢	$11	0x36b500…
04-08 21:11:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	SELL	99	20¢	$20	0x77fd7d…
04-07 10:26:07	Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9d966a…
04-07 10:25:35	Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xaa4f2f…
04-07 10:15:39	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x49b40c…
04-07 10:15:33	Will MrBeast hit 479 million subscribers by April 30?	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x4a92d6…
04-07 09:55:21	Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	213	23¢	$50	0x81a653…
04-07 09:44:31	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	218	23¢	$50	0x45ae17…
04-06 18:14:59	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,001	5¢	$48	0x3b2f8f…
04-06 18:10:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	3¢	$34	0x3f16ec…
04-05 11:16:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x72b9a6…
04-05 11:15:01	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	119	100¢	$119	0x4d48f8…
04-03 14:14:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x4d04a8…
04-03 14:14:03	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	86¢	$860	0xbffe23…