Austere-Nudge — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

—

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,237 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$18.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-22 07:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Other

55% 39% -$389

Politics

25% 28% -$273

Crypto

17% 45% -$7

Sports

3% 29% -$91

Tech

0% 17% -$54

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes		+45	$5	3¢	$1	-$4	05-16 11:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	11	$878	2,643	2,643	+0	No	+$108	01-25 06:33
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	11	$872	2,256	2,256	+0	No	+$214	01-25 06:33
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	8	$460	1,052	1,052	+0	No	+$60	01-30 06:26
gc hit 5500 high jan 2026	11	$447	4,109	4,109	+0	No	-$78	01-28 21:07
si hit 110 high jan 2026 293 432 128	4	$351	581	581	+0	Yes	+$151	01-24 10:20
gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	3	$329	312	312	+0	Yes	+$221	01-23 17:39
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	6	$307	202	202	+0	Yes	+$69	01-23 17:37
will silver si hit high 130 by end of january 314 277 552 989	5	$269	2,360	2,360	+0	No	-$246	01-30 06:26
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	8	$237	355	355	+0	No	-$45	03-21 11:09
will novak djokovic win the 2026 australian open	4	$232	900	900	+0	No	+$104	01-30 18:14
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	3	$224	189	189	+0	Silver	+$87	01-20 18:07
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	6	$216	260	260	+0	Yes	+$6	02-09 10:42
epl sun cry 2026 01 17 sun	2	$172	122	122	+0	Yes	+$72	01-17 18:04
epl cry che 2026 01 25 che	2	$161	111	111	+0	Yes	+$61	01-25 17:32
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$156	4,339	805	+3,534	Yes	-$44	02-02 10:19
ucl nap1 cfc 2026 01 28 nap1	3	$147	335	168	+168	No	-$53	01-27 18:00
will mrbeasts next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1 867	2	$146	417	417	+0	No	+$46	01-25 14:29
epl bou ars 2026 01 03 ars	2	$144	94	94	+0	Yes	+$44	01-03 19:39
epl ast not 2026 01 03 ast	2	$141	91	91	+0	Yes	+$41	01-03 17:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$138	197	197	+0	Yes	+$48	01-29 21:04
will trump talk to ali khamenei in february	10	$137	3,150	3,150	+0	No	-$93	02-24 17:30
epl tot mac 2026 02 01 mac	4	$137	116	116	+0	No	+$35	02-01 18:16
epl new cry 2026 01 04 new	2	$135	85	85	+0	Yes	+$35	01-04 17:23
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$132	271	271	+0	Yes	+$31	01-04 22:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 09:00 UTC	4	$129	182	68	+114	Up	+$8	02-15 09:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$129	481	481	+0	No	-$71	01-19 18:32
epl bou tot 2026 01 07 bou	4	$126	114	114	+0	Yes	+$26	01-07 21:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	10	$121	661	661	+0	No	+$1	03-28 06:10
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	6	$121	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$20	03-21 11:09
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	2	$121	227	227	+0	No	+$21	01-03 09:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 07:21:41	Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	310	3¢	$10	0x2d4d75…
06-16 07:45:09	Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	67	7¢	$5	0xcc4d10…
06-16 07:44:54	Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	323	3¢	$10	0xc61d26…
05-18 19:48:48	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xedf3bc…
05-18 19:48:36	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x677ccb…
05-16 11:51:27	Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xda423c…
05-16 11:50:14	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	Yes	SELL	48	59¢	$28	0x07db00…
05-16 11:49:51	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xf5c7ed…
05-05 09:11:54	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x5237df…
05-05 09:11:40	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x76c396…
05-05 09:11:36	Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x89a4c6…
05-05 09:11:12	Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x5b2d46…
05-04 10:22:26	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	10¢	$5	0x6a6a74…
05-03 06:23:14	Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x616efd…
05-03 06:22:34	Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x79fa85…
05-03 06:22:24	Casemiro: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x88a452…
05-03 06:21:44	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xba9cb3…
05-03 06:21:30	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x509d14…
05-01 08:16:38	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xf2c845…
04-30 19:16:00	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xfe106f…
04-30 07:40:34	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x3322cd…
04-29 18:10:44	Will Powell say "Simulation" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb79973…
04-29 18:10:30	Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xfb9aef…
04-29 17:59:54	Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x123044…
04-29 17:59:38	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?	Yes	SELL	342	0¢	$1	0x1bd80d…
04-29 13:28:24	Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xd88a4e…
04-29 13:25:54	Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x2734f1…
04-29 13:25:32	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x339b8a…
04-28 08:18:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	30	1¢	$0	0xfcf1ea…
04-28 08:18:06	Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x5e952d…
04-28 08:18:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	67	0¢	$0	0xd53ba2…
04-28 08:18:00	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	0¢	$0	0xa7864a…
04-28 08:17:56	Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0xe5e0a7…
04-28 08:17:50	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0x7802ea…
04-28 08:17:46	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	SELL	38	2¢	$1	0xf1525b…
04-28 08:17:42	Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0x41c344…
04-28 08:17:38	Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x77bc4f…
04-28 08:17:30	Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xeff0b2…
04-28 08:17:20	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	SELL	112	6¢	$7	0x3fb80d…
04-25 10:37:20	Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x764aaa…
04-25 10:37:14	Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x9bd63f…
04-24 20:04:02	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5efc4e…
04-24 20:03:50	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xfb153f…
04-24 20:03:48	Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	1¢	$1	0xd32395…
04-24 20:03:44	Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	0¢	$0	0x55a301…
04-24 20:03:44	Will Iran strike France by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	0¢	$1	0x0a87d6…
04-23 17:53:28	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xb30167…
04-23 17:33:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x138d46…
04-23 13:28:34	Will Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7ebb7f…
04-23 13:28:18	pg quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 24 2026 1pt56	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x51f2ea…
04-23 13:28:04	gd quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 22 2026 3pt67	No	BUY	36	11¢	$4	0xbf8aed…
04-23 13:27:44	tmus quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt01	No	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xb59584…
04-23 13:27:40	tmus quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt01	Yes	SELL	4	65¢	$3	0x65f7dc…
04-23 13:27:32	tmus quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt01	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x186a17…
04-23 13:27:20	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xe05bb5…
04-23 12:57:52	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x854d19…
04-23 12:57:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xc80c2d…
04-23 12:52:04	intc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 0	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xab4070…
04-23 12:51:14	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x729c8b…
04-23 11:07:36	Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xde9589…
04-23 07:57:08	aal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 neg0pt46	No	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x62be5e…
04-23 07:56:52	intc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 0	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x856f5c…
04-22 19:13:22	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x963dbe…
04-22 19:13:12	txn quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 22 2026 1pt36	Yes	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x8a6eb7…
04-22 12:56:18	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xc26635…
04-22 12:56:14	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in April 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	3¢	$3	0x6322cf…
04-21 20:17:26	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x0c0148…
04-21 20:17:16	intc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 0	No	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x9c7f89…
04-21 20:16:46	Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?	Yes	SELL	43	10¢	$4	0xafa093…
04-21 20:16:38	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	38¢	$10	0xac5c05…
04-21 18:07:24	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x0bf6a2…
04-21 17:50:48	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	18	19¢	$3	0x3f5944…
04-21 17:50:42	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	33	23¢	$8	0x13b304…
04-21 17:13:00	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xc4931c…
04-21 17:12:56	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x8f0522…
04-21 14:41:54	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0xed405e…
04-21 11:40:18	Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0xc1d9ba…
04-21 11:39:26	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0xbf4165…
04-21 08:23:36	Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x4350e8…
04-20 05:37:52	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	51	31¢	$16	0xd66c32…
04-20 05:36:56	Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	2¢	$2	0xbbdb4d…
04-19 22:21:54	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x9eaf2d…
04-19 22:21:36	Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8740ef…
04-19 22:21:32	Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x70d419…
04-19 22:20:24	intc quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 0	No	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xf30aee…
04-19 22:10:44	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x4c3ed9…
04-19 22:10:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x1c479f…
04-19 22:09:46	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x64306e…
04-19 22:08:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xeec9f9…
04-19 22:08:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x952105…
04-19 22:07:00	Will Iran strike Ukraine by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x5a71f5…
04-19 22:06:50	Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x0fc13c…
04-19 22:06:28	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	Yes	BUY	102	5¢	$5	0x597bba…
04-19 22:06:00	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	21	43¢	$9	0xf952c2…
04-19 22:05:38	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	72	45¢	$32	0xdf7ea1…
04-19 15:06:14	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0xab3d19…
04-19 15:05:58	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	107	14¢	$15	0xb75530…
04-19 15:01:44	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7889aa…
04-19 15:00:56	Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xcfec3b…
04-19 15:00:40	Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?	Yes	SELL	13	12¢	$2	0x7c3b9e…