Thirsty-Adjustment — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.16K

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

87.0%

Resolved (90d)

1,259

Trades (90d)

5,574

93,020 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$89.1K

$894.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$104

1 position

First seen

2026-04-30

last 10-26 09:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 90% +$9,944

Other

1% 88% -$1,427

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 359 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No		+149	$100	70¢	$104	+$4	10-26 09:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 13:00 UTC	207	$1.8K	960	870	+90	Down	+$31	06-11 13:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 13:55 UTC	174	$1.5K	990	590	+400	Down	+$30	06-11 14:00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$1.5K	1,949	1,949	+0	Yes	-$726	09-11 17:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 15:05 UTC	173	$1.5K	870	610	+260	Up	-$2	06-19 15:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 15:55 UTC	146	$1.3K	1,040	340	+700	Down	+$46	06-10 15:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 17:45 UTC	123	$1.2K	610	580	+30	Up	+$16	06-10 17:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 04:45 UTC	125	$1.2K	707	480	+227	Down	+$14	06-20 04:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 20:05 UTC	121	$1.1K	750	400	+350	Down	+$12	06-18 20:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 06:05 UTC	146	$1.1K	796	390	+406	Down	-$8	06-19 06:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 03:05 UTC	113	$1.0K	540	530	+10	Down	+$13	06-11 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	213	$1.0K	520	520	+0	Down	+$13	05-27 22:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 02:35 UTC	109	$985	790	230	+560	Up	+$14	06-11 02:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 14:35 UTC	122	$947	680	290	+390	Up	+$13	06-19 14:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 05:00 UTC	105	$945	580	390	+190	Down	+$15	06-11 05:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 15:35 UTC	110	$919	850	100	+750	Down	-$8	06-10 15:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 16:55 UTC	105	$914	670	310	+360	Down	-$11	06-19 17:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 16:15 UTC	99	$909	670	270	+400	Down	+$12	06-19 16:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 05:10 UTC	99	$860	750	140	+610	Up	+$16	06-20 05:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-08 09:35 UTC	105	$857	490	400	+90	Up	+$11	06-08 09:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 16:35 UTC	88	$856	870	0	+870	Down	+$14	06-10 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	100	$856	970	0	+970	Up	+$84	06-11 01:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 20:00 UTC	100	$849	490	370	+120	Up	+$3	06-18 20:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 11:35 UTC	96	$848	710	170	+540	Down	+$24	06-11 11:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 22:45 UTC	98	$805	630	210	+420	Down	+$14	06-10 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 20:45 UTC	82	$780	530	260	+270	Up	+$5	06-19 20:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 17:25 UTC	83	$762	460	320	+140	Down	+$8	06-19 17:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 19:10 UTC	78	$738	430	340	+90	Up	+$11	06-11 19:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-11 19:25 UTC	78	$724	440	320	+120	Down	+$14	06-11 19:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 17:30 UTC	76	$724	590	150	+440	Up	+$10	06-18 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	70	$709	724	0	+724	Up	+$15	06-20 13:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 09:08:29	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x500fef…
10-13 13:59:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0x890319…
10-13 13:32:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 13:30 UTC	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x13f252…
10-13 12:54:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	13	70¢	$9	0xd221a1…
10-13 12:47:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x73599b…
10-13 12:47:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:45 UTC	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x83baf9…
10-13 12:39:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:35 UTC	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd4cbf3…
10-13 11:34:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:30 UTC	Up	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0x94dd03…
10-13 11:08:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:05 UTC	Up	BUY	13	28¢	$4	0x5d34b4…
10-13 10:57:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:55 UTC	Down	BUY	13	57¢	$7	0xeef4f5…
10-13 10:39:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:35 UTC	Up	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0xfcb0ea…
10-13 10:03:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x72277d…
10-13 09:57:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:55 UTC	Down	BUY	13	66¢	$9	0xe531f3…
10-13 09:34:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:30 UTC	Down	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0xf39080…
10-13 09:23:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 09:20 UTC	Down	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x4d024e…
10-13 08:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0x475605…
10-13 08:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x2fc642…
10-13 08:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0xa20c31…
10-13 07:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x028f0e…
10-13 06:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xc92088…
10-13 06:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xafb284…
10-13 06:08:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x273166…
10-13 05:57:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	68¢	$9	0xc08857…
10-13 05:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xb7fbd8…
10-13 05:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1696bb…
10-13 05:27:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0x548f9e…
10-13 04:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x35569e…
10-13 04:48:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x07573c…
10-13 04:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x5d4333…
10-13 04:19:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xd8dd78…
10-13 04:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	32¢	$0	0x9d9050…
10-13 04:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0x1723fd…
10-13 04:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0x0133de…
10-13 04:02:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0x801bcf…
10-13 03:43:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x383a9b…
10-13 03:38:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0xf546c8…
10-13 03:28:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x519713…
10-13 03:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0x98a62d…
10-13 02:52:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x96bbfc…
10-13 02:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	13	34¢	$4	0x5af6de…
10-13 02:07:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x286437…
10-13 01:47:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0xf8e499…
10-13 01:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x475e21…
10-13 00:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	13	42¢	$5	0xd6bc99…
10-13 00:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	53¢	$7	0x9eecaf…
10-12 23:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x7ecbbb…
10-12 23:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x6a1e8a…
10-12 23:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	0	55¢	$0	0x8d7846…
10-12 23:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xb62f5d…
10-12 23:09:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0x79b039…
10-12 22:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xb51003…
10-12 21:12:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x06c809…
10-12 20:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	27¢	$4	0x70947d…
10-12 20:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0x68599b…
10-12 19:49:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x71fd32…
10-12 19:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0x2229cd…
10-12 18:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	29¢	$4	0x3c0ab8…
10-12 18:32:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0xf55ee8…
10-12 18:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	37¢	$5	0x4baded…
10-12 18:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	36¢	$5	0x786640…
10-12 18:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x287029…
10-12 17:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	4	21¢	$1	0x6550a3…
10-12 17:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x1539aa…
10-12 17:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0xc7f060…
10-12 17:47:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x633246…
10-12 17:18:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	13	71¢	$9	0xd9691c…
10-12 17:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0xc75282…
10-12 17:07:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x67ce98…
10-12 17:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xaa62d4…
10-12 16:18:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0x870747…
10-12 15:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0x8b93e9…
10-12 15:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0xa5e227…
10-12 15:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x8364e0…
10-12 14:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x7e38af…
10-12 14:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xd3ba70…
10-12 13:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0xf7855d…
10-12 13:48:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x2e408c…
10-12 13:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xe3dbdd…
10-12 13:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	21¢	$3	0xf07ba6…
10-12 13:09:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	49¢	$6	0x745bf8…
10-12 12:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	10¢	$1	0x276b67…
10-12 12:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	43¢	$6	0x9646dc…
10-12 11:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x64223d…
10-12 11:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2f8e09…
10-12 11:43:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0xdc7ea3…
10-12 11:09:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	11¢	$1	0xa34e3b…
10-12 10:59:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x899ea8…
10-12 10:38:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0a41d2…
10-12 10:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x6f4c2b…
10-12 10:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0x8e1e6b…
10-12 09:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x0356d7…
10-12 09:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x2e393b…
10-12 08:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xbc8dc8…
10-12 08:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0x9c89a7…
10-12 08:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x95f931…
10-12 08:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x384e13…
10-12 08:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x3c860a…
10-12 08:24:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x162a3b…
10-12 08:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x900e11…
10-12 08:08:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x1c601a…