Inferior-Grain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$670

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,077

lifetime

Volume

$325.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$302

Open exposure

$4.98K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-30 16:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

80% 100% +$2,000

Politics

19% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	+3,061	$2,350	90¢	$2.8K	+$420	06-12 15:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	+1,918	$1,700	100¢	$1.9K	+$210	06-11 02:34
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	+300	$260	100¢	$300	+$40	06-27 22:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
dal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 13 2026 1pt57	4	$7.9K	4,318	4,318	+0	open	—	01-13 13:48
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	1	$6.9K	10,345	0	+10,345	open	—	04-21 13:04
will us gdp growth in 2025 be between 2pt0 and 2pt5	1	$6.3K	6,319	0	+6,319	open	—	02-20 13:49
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	8	$6.2K	3,199	3,399	-200	open	—	05-25 12:43
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	1	$5.9K	7,177	0	+7,177	open	—	03-31 12:46
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	1	$4.9K	5,175	0	+5,175	open	—	04-03 12:30
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	1	$4.9K	5,570	0	+5,570	open	—	04-21 13:04
will us gdp growth in 2025 be greater than 2pt5	1	$4.6K	4,627	0	+4,627	open	—	02-20 13:47
cvx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 30 2026 1pt48	2	$4.5K	4,947	0	+4,947	open	—	01-30 11:15
bk quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 13 2026 1pt99	5	$4.3K	2,238	2,238	+0	open	—	01-13 13:47
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on april 19 2026	1	$3.9K	5,258	0	+5,258	open	—	04-21 13:04
will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt4	1	$3.9K	4,651	0	+4,651	open	—	03-06 13:30
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	1	$3.9K	4,482	0	+4,482	open	—	03-31 12:46
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	39	$3.5K	2,575	2,216	+359	open	—	05-05 20:58
cof quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 22 2026 4pt17	2	$3.5K	6,348	0	+6,348	open	—	01-22 21:05
will vertiv holdings vrt be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	4	$3.4K	3,614	0	+3,614	open	—	03-06 22:44
will the us add more than 125k jobs in january	1	$3.4K	3,946	0	+3,946	open	—	02-11 13:30
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	1	$3.4K	3,549	0	+3,549	open	—	04-10 12:30
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	17	$3.4K	1,976	1,976	+0	open	—	01-13 13:17
cvs quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt99	2	$3.3K	3,551	0	+3,551	open	—	02-10 11:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	19	$3.3K	3,600	200	+3,400	open	—	04-12 14:09
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in february 763 544 382 181	1	$3.1K	3,510	0	+3,510	open	—	03-11 12:30
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt7	18	$3.0K	4,003	0	+4,003	open	—	03-03 02:55
yum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 1pt76	2	$3.0K	3,301	0	+3,301	open	—	02-04 12:00
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	1	$2.9K	4,593	0	+4,593	open	—	04-14 12:45
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in december	1	$2.9K	3,025	0	+3,025	open	—	01-13 13:30
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-25 12:43
will the us add at least 100k jobs in march	1	$2.6K	2,856	0	+2,856	open	—	04-03 12:30
will the reserve bank of australia increase the target for the cash rate after the february meeting	1	$2.4K	2,550	0	+2,550	open	—	02-03 03:30
will trump visit china by march 31	4	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	open	—	03-27 12:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 16:50:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	72	11¢	$8	0x0bc34d…
06-30 16:49:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	220	11¢	$25	0x85c4b2…
06-30 16:48:32	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	231	11¢	$26	0x765f97…
06-30 16:47:25	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	197	11¢	$22	0x2cde58…
06-30 16:46:32	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	201	11¢	$23	0xd2c54b…
06-30 15:14:17	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	79	11¢	$9	0xccf3dd…
06-30 12:24:01	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$65	0x256c40…
06-30 10:30:10	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x89a691…
06-30 09:59:46	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	39	16¢	$6	0x62da29…
06-30 09:48:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	119	16¢	$19	0xc66ada…
06-30 09:45:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0x3b3f9d…
06-30 09:33:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xf42103…
06-29 04:31:55	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	107	34¢	$36	0x79a267…
06-29 04:14:14	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	93	34¢	$32	0x173fac…
06-29 04:05:52	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x311443…
06-29 04:01:38	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	93	35¢	$33	0xf74d6f…
06-29 03:40:11	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1797a0…
06-29 03:02:07	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x11b8a4…
06-29 01:19:47	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xc6aaf1…
06-28 23:57:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	34	52¢	$18	0xcd128a…
06-28 23:37:59	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x3ed3a4…
06-28 21:55:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xaf5519…
06-28 21:21:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x8d7b35…
06-28 21:14:26	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9c5a82…
06-28 20:43:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x5233a1…
06-28 14:02:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	95	75¢	$71	0xd8ff79…
06-28 13:25:53	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x1fbc24…
06-28 13:10:41	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x9f9fe3…
06-28 01:07:13	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xa0a779…
06-28 00:30:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x46a6f2…
06-27 22:03:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	81¢	$62	0xbe6843…
06-27 22:02:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x6a7989…
06-27 22:00:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x01528c…
06-27 21:27:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xbe6604…
06-27 21:24:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x248328…
06-27 20:49:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xf11201…
06-27 18:02:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x061174…
06-27 15:50:46	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	68	81¢	$55	0xef3598…
06-27 15:47:20	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd39487…
06-27 15:46:29	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0xaecf8b…
06-27 14:34:35	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x856775…
06-27 12:38:14	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xb7f2c1…
06-27 11:57:11	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xfac17d…
06-26 23:51:38	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	232	97¢	$225	0x2282f2…
06-26 23:43:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x091b1b…
06-26 23:43:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x0073c2…
06-26 23:39:08	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	568	96¢	$545	0x168c27…
06-26 23:31:35	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xaac61b…
06-21 17:13:05	will openais valuation hit high 875b by june 30	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xeddd4a…
06-21 17:12:37	will marco rubio have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xd9461c…
06-21 17:11:25	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0x935e57…
06-21 17:10:44	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x67b425…
06-21 15:26:11	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$3	0xd1e608…
06-21 15:25:41	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x8d7640…
06-21 15:25:23	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xe56c48…
06-21 15:21:07	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	28	5¢	$1	0x1556eb…
06-21 15:19:43	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x115394…
06-21 15:16:52	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0xdd475f…
06-20 15:29:37	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xa716cd…
06-20 15:03:16	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x2d5cd6…
06-20 14:26:46	will marco rubio have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa9b586…
06-20 14:25:43	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	156	86¢	$134	0x55e05f…
06-20 14:13:32	will saudi arabia be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522909	No	SELL	150	95¢	$143	0x681bed…
06-20 14:13:16	will egypt be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522913	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x7976f8…
06-20 14:12:47	will lebanon be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522908	No	SELL	277	95¢	$263	0x0609aa…
06-20 01:12:17	will lebanon be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522908	No	BUY	277	92¢	$255	0xe0b261…
06-20 01:11:29	will saudi arabia be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522909	No	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0xbfa42a…
06-20 01:11:08	will egypt be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522913	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x2de3e0…
06-20 01:10:05	will israel be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522915	No	BUY	600	97¢	$584	0xe09a64…
06-20 00:21:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	312	91¢	$284	0x589323…
06-20 00:17:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x41bc98…
06-20 00:16:40	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x5c5724…
06-20 00:04:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	374	79¢	$297	0x9b231a…
06-20 00:03:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	798	50¢	$401	0x9386e5…
06-20 00:02:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	798	36¢	$290	0xd729e4…
06-20 00:02:13	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	374	78¢	$290	0x41f56c…
06-20 00:02:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	338	86¢	$290	0x2e36f3…
06-19 23:55:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	225	26¢	$59	0x9cf0c6…
06-19 23:55:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	SELL	403	26¢	$105	0x96684f…
06-19 23:55:17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	75¢	$155	0xbdd60b…
06-19 23:54:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	SELL	150	89¢	$133	0x0e75a8…
06-19 22:52:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	150	84¢	$125	0x9f3dbd…
06-19 22:52:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	627	20¢	$125	0x3ed728…
06-19 22:52:59	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	60¢	$125	0x248dd6…
06-19 17:59:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	187	67¢	$125	0x3d31ea…
06-19 17:45:14	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	185	53¢	$98	0x68d1a8…
06-19 17:19:35	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	192	42¢	$81	0xef33e6…
06-19 16:24:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	192	58¢	$111	0xe8229d…
06-19 16:24:52	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	185	60¢	$111	0x282738…
06-19 16:24:52	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	169	66¢	$111	0x10e2be…
06-19 15:47:31	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	39	58¢	$23	0x850856…
06-19 15:47:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	90	58¢	$52	0x392d9e…
06-19 15:46:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xdf333c…
06-19 15:46:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	4	58¢	$2	0x5fa1ef…
06-19 15:46:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0xcfd79e…
06-19 15:46:55	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	58¢	$0	0x57a46f…
06-19 15:46:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	324	58¢	$188	0x66b135…
06-19 15:46:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	1	58¢	$0	0xd7f854…
06-19 15:46:23	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0x836ef8…
06-19 15:46:22	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	0	58¢	$0	0xa29188…