Inferior-Grain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$415

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,114

lifetime

Volume

$340.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$306

Open exposure

$61

1 position

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-21 20:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

79% 100% +$2,000

Politics

19% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No		-79	$-476	78¢	$-61	+$415	07-01 13:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
dal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 13 2026 1pt57	4	$7.9K	4,318	4,318	+0	open	—	01-13 13:48
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	47	$7.5K	5,213	5,213	+0	open	—	07-02 13:05
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	1	$6.9K	10,345	0	+10,345	open	—	04-21 13:04
will us gdp growth in 2025 be between 2pt0 and 2pt5	1	$6.3K	6,319	0	+6,319	open	—	02-20 13:49
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	8	$6.2K	3,199	3,399	-200	open	—	05-25 12:43
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	1	$5.9K	7,177	0	+7,177	open	—	03-31 12:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	25	$5.2K	3,061	3,141	-79	open	—	07-01 13:06
will the march 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt3	1	$4.9K	5,175	0	+5,175	open	—	04-03 12:30
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	1	$4.9K	5,570	0	+5,570	open	—	04-21 13:04
will us gdp growth in 2025 be greater than 2pt5	1	$4.6K	4,627	0	+4,627	open	—	02-20 13:47
cvx quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 30 2026 1pt48	2	$4.5K	4,947	0	+4,947	open	—	01-30 11:15
bk quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 13 2026 1pt99	5	$4.3K	2,238	2,238	+0	open	—	01-13 13:47
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on april 19 2026	1	$3.9K	5,258	0	+5,258	open	—	04-21 13:04
will the february 2026 unemployment rate be 4pt4	1	$3.9K	4,651	0	+4,651	open	—	03-06 13:30
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	1	$3.9K	4,482	0	+4,482	open	—	03-31 12:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	19	$3.6K	1,918	1,918	+0	open	—	07-01 13:08
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	39	$3.5K	2,575	2,216	+359	open	—	05-05 20:58
cof quarterly earnings nongaap eps 01 22 2026 4pt17	2	$3.5K	6,348	0	+6,348	open	—	01-22 21:05
will vertiv holdings vrt be added to the sp 500 by march 31 2026	4	$3.4K	3,614	0	+3,614	open	—	03-06 22:44
will the us add more than 125k jobs in january	1	$3.4K	3,946	0	+3,946	open	—	02-11 13:30
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt8 or more in march 692	1	$3.4K	3,549	0	+3,549	open	—	04-10 12:30
jpm quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 13 2026 4pt94	17	$3.4K	1,976	1,976	+0	open	—	01-13 13:17
cvs quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 10 2026 0pt99	2	$3.3K	3,551	0	+3,551	open	—	02-10 11:30
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	19	$3.3K	3,600	200	+3,400	open	—	04-12 14:09
will annual inflation increase by 2pt4 in february 763 544 382 181	1	$3.1K	3,510	0	+3,510	open	—	03-11 12:30
will japans january 2026 unemployment rate be 2pt7	18	$3.0K	4,003	0	+4,003	open	—	03-03 02:55
yum quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 1pt76	2	$3.0K	3,301	0	+3,301	open	—	02-04 12:00
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	1	$2.9K	4,593	0	+4,593	open	—	04-14 12:45
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in december	1	$2.9K	3,025	0	+3,025	open	—	01-13 13:30
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-25 12:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 20:05:03	cof quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 21 2026 4pt75	Yes	BUY	140	70¢	$98	0x891542…
07-21 20:01:03	ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 21 2026 0pt62	Yes	BUY	26	90¢	$23	0x2df26d…
07-21 11:21:07	ally quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 21 2026 1pt23	No	BUY	250	25¢	$64	0x2d68be…
07-21 10:45:03	msci quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 21 2026 4pt90	Yes	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0xeb69b5…
07-20 20:15:04	wtfc quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 20 2026 3pt16	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x89cd54…
07-18 22:10:37	will kylian mbappe score 9 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup copy	Yes	BUY	290	58¢	$168	0x7bdea8…
07-16 11:31:16	stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 16 2026 3pt23	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xc2f264…
07-16 09:55:02	unh quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 16 2026 4pt85	Yes	BUY	237	88¢	$208	0xb1177e…
07-15 12:30:02	ctas quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 15 2026 1pt23	Yes	BUY	1,041	93¢	$973	0xce3734…
07-15 11:25:17	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 2pt125b	Yes	BUY	81	95¢	$77	0xc9e836…
07-15 11:25:17	will morgan stanley ms q2 investment banking revenue be above 2pt0b	Yes	BUY	516	93¢	$480	0x15b6be…
07-14 10:00:02	unty quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 14 2026 1pt44	No	BUY	127	57¢	$73	0xa1a3e8…
07-07 13:26:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	143	71¢	$101	0x7bd154…
07-07 13:25:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	SELL	26	87¢	$22	0x6684bb…
07-07 12:58:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	Yes	SELL	646	99¢	$641	0x148e33…
07-07 12:42:29	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 743	Yes	BUY	646	80¢	$516	0x076a8b…
07-07 02:32:26	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x666f38…
07-07 02:31:38	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	98¢	$96	0xea5330…
07-07 00:49:53	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x33db02…
07-05 14:17:25	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$11	0x019cd6…
07-05 14:17:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x54b472…
07-04 14:16:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	SELL	200	38¢	$76	0xb65505…
07-03 23:36:58	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0xd40e19…
07-03 23:33:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	97	16¢	$16	0x240373…
07-03 23:33:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	43	48¢	$21	0x71c35c…
07-03 18:03:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	Yes	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x073972…
07-03 18:00:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x77cb28…
07-02 13:05:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	52	100¢	$52	0x948b8c…
07-02 12:35:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	5,161	100¢	$5,151	0xb466e8…
07-01 17:00:04	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt1t by june 30	Yes	BUY	25	87¢	$22	0x548000…
07-01 13:10:16	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138 872 385 636	Yes	SELL	400	99¢	$397	0x1b8214…
07-01 13:09:58	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138 771 819 232	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xf1f0cd…
07-01 13:08:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	SELL	1,918	99¢	$1,908	0x6084d0…
07-01 13:06:37	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	2,293	90¢	$2,063	0xf19c89…
07-01 13:05:49	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	848	90¢	$763	0xa4b83e…
07-01 13:04:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662 752 464 953	Yes	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0xf726d7…
07-01 13:04:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	100¢	$300	0x071e28…
06-30 16:50:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	72	11¢	$8	0x0bc34d…
06-30 16:49:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	220	11¢	$25	0x85c4b2…
06-30 16:48:32	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	231	11¢	$26	0x765f97…
06-30 16:47:25	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	197	11¢	$22	0x2cde58…
06-30 16:46:32	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	201	11¢	$23	0xd2c54b…
06-30 15:14:17	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	79	11¢	$9	0xccf3dd…
06-30 12:24:01	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$65	0x256c40…
06-30 10:30:10	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x89a691…
06-30 09:59:46	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	39	16¢	$6	0x62da29…
06-30 09:48:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	119	16¢	$19	0xc66ada…
06-30 09:45:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	42	16¢	$7	0x3b3f9d…
06-30 09:33:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0xf42103…
06-29 04:31:55	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	107	34¢	$36	0x79a267…
06-29 04:14:14	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	93	34¢	$32	0x173fac…
06-29 04:05:52	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x311443…
06-29 04:01:38	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	93	35¢	$33	0xf74d6f…
06-29 03:40:11	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1797a0…
06-29 03:02:07	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x11b8a4…
06-29 01:19:47	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0xc6aaf1…
06-28 23:57:44	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	34	52¢	$18	0xcd128a…
06-28 23:37:59	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x3ed3a4…
06-28 21:55:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0xaf5519…
06-28 21:21:37	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	0	70¢	$0	0x8d7b35…
06-28 21:14:26	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9c5a82…
06-28 20:43:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x5233a1…
06-28 14:02:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	95	75¢	$71	0xd8ff79…
06-28 13:25:53	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x1fbc24…
06-28 13:10:41	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x9f9fe3…
06-28 01:07:13	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xa0a779…
06-28 00:30:58	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x46a6f2…
06-27 22:03:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	81¢	$62	0xbe6843…
06-27 22:02:10	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x6a7989…
06-27 22:00:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x01528c…
06-27 21:27:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xbe6604…
06-27 21:24:35	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x248328…
06-27 20:49:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0xf11201…
06-27 18:02:23	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31 248 662	Yes	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0x061174…
06-27 15:50:46	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	68	81¢	$55	0xef3598…
06-27 15:47:20	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xd39487…
06-27 15:46:29	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	26	81¢	$21	0xaecf8b…
06-27 14:34:35	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x856775…
06-27 12:38:14	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xb7f2c1…
06-27 11:57:11	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xfac17d…
06-26 23:51:38	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	232	97¢	$225	0x2282f2…
06-26 23:43:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 31 495 138	Yes	BUY	400	87¢	$348	0x091b1b…
06-26 23:43:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x0073c2…
06-26 23:39:08	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	568	96¢	$545	0x168c27…
06-26 23:31:35	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xaac61b…
06-21 17:13:05	will openais valuation hit high 875b by june 30	Yes	SELL	30	60¢	$18	0xeddd4a…
06-21 17:12:37	will marco rubio have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xd9461c…
06-21 17:11:25	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	156	100¢	$156	0x935e57…
06-21 17:10:44	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x67b425…
06-21 15:26:11	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$3	0xd1e608…
06-21 15:25:41	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x8d7640…
06-21 15:25:23	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xe56c48…
06-21 15:21:07	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	28	5¢	$1	0x1556eb…
06-21 15:19:43	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x115394…
06-21 15:16:52	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	13	5¢	$1	0xdd475f…
06-20 15:29:37	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xa716cd…
06-20 15:03:16	will jared kushner have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	10	89¢	$9	0x2d5cd6…
06-20 14:26:46	will marco rubio have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xa9b586…
06-20 14:25:43	will steve witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with iran by june 30	Yes	BUY	156	86¢	$134	0x55e05f…
06-20 14:13:32	will saudi arabia be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522909	No	SELL	150	95¢	$143	0x681bed…