Charming-Ribbon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8.24K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

2,153

Trades

4,734

lifetime

Volume

$171.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 10-20 11:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 142 days

Categories

Other

34% 80% +$2,791

Crypto

28% 54% +$199

Politics

26% 61% +$2,528

Tech

8% 82% +$2,967

Pop-Culture

4% 55% -$243

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	14	$9.6K	6,157	6,157	+0	Yes	+$1,451	05-29 15:10
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	11	$9.3K	5,993	5,993	+0	Yes	-$686	06-14 21:36
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$7.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	No	-$929	05-23 21:00
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	6	$5.6K	2,939	2,939	+0	Yes	-$167	05-05 19:02
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	1	$4.8K	4,980	0	+4,980	Yes	+$199	06-10 23:54
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	5	$4.2K	2,189	2,185	+4	No	-$73	05-05 19:03
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	2	$4.0K	4,054	0	+4,054	Yes	+$84	07-01 19:02
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	22	$3.1K	3,205	0	+3,205	Yes	+$139	05-27 12:36
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	1	$3.0K	3,896	0	+3,896	Yes	+$896	06-14 22:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	2	$3.0K	6,084	0	+6,084	Yes	+$3,084	05-08 18:41
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	3	$3.0K	4,374	0	+4,374	No	+$1,379	04-27 15:49
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	11	$2.9K	3,064	0	+3,064	Yes	+$150	06-08 22:42
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	41	$2.8K	3,017	0	+3,017	Yes	+$237	05-22 18:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	3	$2.4K	27,144	27,144	-0	No	-$1,870	05-03 21:06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,001	2,001	+0	No	+$20	04-23 00:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	2	$2.0K	2,356	0	+2,356	Yes	+$356	06-14 21:29
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	4	$2.0K	2,046	0	+2,046	Yes	+$77	06-16 16:53
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	15	$1.2K	1,271	0	+1,271	Yes	+$51	06-07 23:57
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k?	10	$1.1K	1,479	0	+1,479	Yes	+$345	05-29 21:01
will trump praise allah again by june 30	7	$1.1K	1,202	0	+1,202	Yes	+$133	06-10 11:33
another critical cloudflare incident by august 31 2026 12	4	$1.0K	1,339	1,339	+0	No	-$727	08-12 15:07
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	2	$1.0K	1,754	0	+1,754	No	+$746	07-18 08:24
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?	4	$1.0K	1,047	0	+1,047	Yes	+$46	08-04 15:51
will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1460 by december 31 2026	1	$1000	1,828	0	+1,828	No	+$828	07-10 18:58
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	1	$1000	1,169	0	+1,169	No	+$169	06-24 22:22
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary	4	$1000	1,079	0	+1,079	Yes	+$79	06-29 22:51
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	3	$1000	1,053	0	+1,053	No	+$53	09-11 21:34
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	52	$974	3,797	3,797	+0	No	-$527	06-14 21:35
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	1	$935	980	0	+980	No	+$45	08-07 12:30
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?	11	$785	3,138	0	+3,138	No	-$519	07-01 16:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 11:08:50	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xff1bca…
10-20 11:08:50	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	48	97¢	$47	0xf7294e…
10-20 10:58:54	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x1f8005…
10-20 10:58:38	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xee8eba…
10-20 10:58:36	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x888ee1…
10-20 10:58:36	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x454270…
10-20 10:58:36	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x42ed43…
10-20 10:58:35	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0xf10700…
10-20 10:48:56	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	1,139	61¢	$695	0xbb70bd…
10-20 10:48:54	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	360	85¢	$305	0x131d9e…
10-20 10:48:48	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xc1c6a1…
10-20 10:48:48	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	209	95¢	$198	0x59b59f…
10-20 10:48:47	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	88	97¢	$86	0x6e0e2d…
10-20 10:48:47	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	Yes	BUY	409	71¢	$292	0x198188…
10-20 10:48:47	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	126	87¢	$109	0x02b7d9…
10-20 06:32:56	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	88¢	$62	0xe3a822…
10-20 06:32:56	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	72¢	$11	0xe1eba5…
10-20 06:32:56	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xde4aa7…
10-20 06:32:56	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$13	0x813bb6…
10-14 12:37:53	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	411	85¢	$349	0xe0661b…
10-14 12:37:53	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xcbcf65…
10-14 12:37:53	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0x340572…
10-14 12:37:50	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	66	75¢	$49	0xf8ffed…
10-14 12:37:50	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x43d16f…
10-14 12:37:50	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x407d71…
10-14 12:37:50	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x0a1f09…
10-14 12:37:48	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	145	89¢	$129	0x6d5f5c…
10-14 12:37:48	Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	130	97¢	$126	0x34d6fc…
10-13 14:32:55	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	128	89¢	$114	0xf6d03e…
10-13 14:27:35	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x6b5a59…
10-13 14:27:19	Will SI.gov launch by October 15?	Yes	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0xa3eaab…
10-08 17:27:20	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	59	89¢	$52	0xd0719b…
10-08 17:27:20	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	497	90¢	$448	0x2737ed…
10-07 16:25:20	GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xe5c2df…
10-06 12:08:54	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	240	69¢	$166	0x76f34f…
10-06 12:08:54	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	45	75¢	$34	0x6ba086…
09-28 22:08:53	Will "Bass Persuades" - Miley Cyrus first week album sales be between 60k and 70k?	Yes	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x53531b…
09-26 06:47:17	Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	417	96¢	$400	0x5144a6…
09-26 05:53:29	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	551	90¢	$496	0xa8a05d…
09-26 02:40:33	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0xe671e4…
09-26 02:16:29	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x6a2625…
09-26 01:56:38	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	95¢	$137	0xf4bb30…
09-26 01:56:02	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xa1625e…
09-26 01:56:02	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x3436fe…
09-26 01:56:02	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x05a813…
09-26 01:55:56	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x030d26…
09-26 01:55:47	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0x794711…
09-26 01:54:57	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	90¢	$36	0x07de52…
09-26 01:54:56	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xf60324…
09-26 01:54:51	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb0641d…
09-26 01:54:42	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	334	95¢	$318	0xaed17b…
09-26 01:54:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0xab3e47…
09-26 01:54:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x61a51f…
09-26 01:54:41	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x5a7f93…
09-26 01:54:41	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	363	94¢	$342	0x10ee5f…
09-26 01:44:03	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x88ef36…
09-26 01:42:44	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xa36212…
09-26 01:39:47	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x1fde58…
09-26 01:39:45	Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xa5ccb5…
09-26 01:39:45	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	60	95¢	$57	0x99a4ef…
09-26 01:39:45	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	113	94¢	$107	0x8db1f0…
09-26 01:39:45	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x514c0d…
09-23 18:15:50	Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xdec4c6…
09-23 04:01:37	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xee75b9…
09-22 22:32:13	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x9a4f75…
09-22 15:03:24	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	46	97¢	$45	0xed291a…
09-22 14:06:04	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x748ecc…
09-22 14:01:19	Will 210-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	24	95¢	$23	0x95d275…
09-15 13:18:33	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x722e9e…
09-15 13:18:01	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xf13b98…
09-15 12:26:03	Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x215341…
09-13 11:10:04	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0xcfa12e…
09-13 10:46:18	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be less than 1 hour?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x34959a…
09-11 21:34:18	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	1,013	95¢	$962	0x7686a3…
09-11 21:18:12	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	34	95¢	$32	0xdc578c…
09-11 21:18:12	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x8fed99…
09-07 03:38:42	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?	Yes	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x0fbbd4…
09-07 03:35:52	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?	Yes	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0xe53ca5…
09-07 03:35:52	Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x9b90d3…
09-03 11:24:01	Will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur in United States this month?	Yes	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x432727…
09-03 01:05:09	Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	617	97¢	$598	0x094e03…
09-03 00:37:42	Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x51fec2…
09-02 23:25:48	Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0ffe65…
09-02 23:25:18	Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x7d2ae2…
09-02 23:25:18	Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	96¢	$55	0x191254…
09-02 15:05:52	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xc4210b…
09-02 15:05:43	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x6691f2…
09-02 14:58:03	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	82¢	$86	0x299fdb…
09-02 14:58:01	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x6a838b…
09-02 14:58:00	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	81¢	$70	0x58b6b5…
09-02 14:57:58	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xed2158…
09-02 14:57:57	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0x164b76…
09-02 14:57:57	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	79¢	$341	0x14396a…
09-02 14:57:55	Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	644	66¢	$424	0xdebc00…
09-01 11:50:42	Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xba606e…
09-01 01:15:09	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in August?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xf7ef4a…
09-01 01:05:01	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?	No	BUY	36	97¢	$35	0x9cdda2…
08-31 15:06:09	ChatGPT Outage by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0xdf3d16…
08-31 15:05:55	ChatGPT Outage by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	96¢	$43	0x324966…
08-31 15:05:45	ChatGPT Outage by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xafb37c…