Bubbly-Mug — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$802

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.6%

Resolved

Trades

920

lifetime

Volume

$33.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$37

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 08-11 22:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$112

Politics

45% 67% +$349

Tech

6% — —

Sports

3% 60% +$335

Crypto

2% 100% +$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kash Patel out by April 30?	25	$2.5K	1,449	1,447	+2	open	—	04-30 15:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	19	$1.4K	1,151	1,151	+0	open	—	05-28 05:55
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	10	$1.4K	2,255	2,255	+0	open	—	04-09 17:26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	16	$1.0K	752	720	+32	open	—	05-01 02:16
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	15	$932	816	800	+16	open	—	04-27 17:40
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	10	$800	481	470	+11	open	—	04-28 00:21
Kash Patel out by May 31?	14	$708	464	459	+6	open	—	05-25 11:45
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	7	$678	453	447	+6	open	—	04-25 22:08
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	9	$678	458	458	+0	open	—	05-28 05:55
chatgpt outage by april 17 183	12	$617	536	493	+42	open	—	04-18 01:19
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	6	$552	394	362	+32	open	—	04-22 11:24
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 300 319	7	$528	1,810	1,726	+84	open	—	04-12 21:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	10	$526	391	391	+0	open	—	04-27 18:44
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	9	$495	907	907	+0	open	—	04-15 21:21
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	11	$449	528	393	+135	Yes	+$112	05-11 19:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	14	$434	713	711	+2	open	—	04-21 20:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	13	$419	568	418	+150	open	—	06-20 13:39
will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	7	$409	414	414	+0	open	—	06-28 18:19
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by April 30, 2026?	15	$373	1,039	1,010	+29	open	—	04-25 22:43
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	20	$360	1,062	1,062	+0	open	—	05-20 12:02
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	6	$343	271	201	+70	open	—	06-29 22:35
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	6	$342	293	293	+0	open	—	07-02 23:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	6	$322	230	208	+22	open	—	05-16 21:12
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	6	$305	710	350	+361	open	—	04-12 22:15
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	7	$291	2,553	2,435	+118	open	—	04-09 23:10
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	8	$279	230	230	+0	open	—	05-28 05:56
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	11	$278	368	368	+0	open	—	06-20 21:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	7	$271	317	299	+17	open	—	06-14 13:07
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	7	$270	913	873	+41	open	—	04-12 21:12
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	8	$258	247	246	+1	open	—	04-25 22:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 22:36:52	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	98	59¢	$58	0xcf7bd6…
08-11 22:36:52	grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	No	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0xc69afa…
08-11 22:32:54	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xd32e0b…
08-11 21:25:45	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0xf65595…
08-11 19:34:16	grok 4pt6 released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x24d84c…
08-11 19:34:04	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	16	27¢	$4	0x90826d…
08-11 18:26:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	110	18¢	$20	0x8020ef…
08-11 18:24:48	grok 4pt6 released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	73	7¢	$5	0x91abc9…
08-11 18:24:31	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	SELL	70	91¢	$63	0x1173a8…
08-11 17:31:46	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	BUY	42	63¢	$26	0x9c36dc…
08-11 17:31:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	146	18¢	$27	0x4aec49…
08-11 17:31:15	grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	No	BUY	28	64¢	$18	0x1651e8…
08-11 17:18:34	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	No	BUY	19	29¢	$5	0x918cb7…
08-11 17:18:27	grok 4pt6 released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	363	10¢	$36	0x85be61…
08-11 16:58:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	30	85¢	$25	0x9e9f8a…
08-11 11:44:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	SELL	40	85¢	$34	0x5ababe…
08-11 11:44:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	SELL	195	18¢	$34	0xd0d438…
08-06 18:54:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x7b5aba…
08-06 18:10:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x78b9b0…
08-06 00:34:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	91	5¢	$4	0x10faa7…
08-06 00:34:41	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	91	5¢	$4	0x94c2ec…
08-06 00:34:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	209	5¢	$10	0x060451…
08-06 00:34:29	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489	No	BUY	366	5¢	$17	0x309632…
08-06 00:34:09	will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy in august 20260731154203515	Yes	SELL	58	62¢	$36	0x461293…
08-05 16:51:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	53	33¢	$17	0x661e71…
08-05 00:33:00	will trump say six seven during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421459	Yes	BUY	104	14¢	$14	0xd19007…
08-05 00:13:08	will trump speak to volodymyr zelenskyy in august 20260731154203515	Yes	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0xe3124e…
08-05 00:06:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	No	BUY	105	38¢	$40	0x9f7847…
07-03 15:44:47	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x4d68e1…
07-03 15:44:40	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	42	42¢	$18	0x88a87d…
07-02 23:38:01	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	163	63¢	$103	0x50ea9c…
07-02 11:51:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	57	70¢	$40	0xe2e81b…
07-02 10:06:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	73	69¢	$51	0x2e8fc9…
06-29 22:35:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	126	82¢	$103	0xed19a8…
06-29 16:42:16	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xa6a5d6…
06-29 13:52:01	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	150	52¢	$78	0x5b02b1…
06-29 11:52:07	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	133	49¢	$65	0xbf3ed5…
06-28 23:48:04	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	SELL	115	25¢	$29	0x56ddb6…
06-28 23:12:28	will trump speak to ahmed al sharaa in june	Yes	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0xeeac86…
06-28 23:12:17	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	186	15¢	$28	0x757dc4…
06-28 18:19:40	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	11¢	$9	0xda88b8…
06-28 18:19:37	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	23	81¢	$19	0x43f7fb…
06-28 14:21:05	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	69	81¢	$56	0x859e42…
06-28 11:52:26	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	96	82¢	$78	0xbc584c…
06-27 10:07:17	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	62	87¢	$54	0xd93f64…
06-26 23:11:14	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	57	78¢	$44	0xa46254…
06-26 17:08:46	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871 165	No	SELL	108	77¢	$83	0xd46a36…
06-26 16:06:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	285	12¢	$34	0xb8283a…
06-26 16:00:50	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	57	71¢	$40	0x800437…
06-25 18:34:02	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	57	80¢	$45	0xc6a690…
06-25 13:01:26	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	115	57¢	$65	0x8f0129…
06-24 18:35:20	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	42	66¢	$28	0xaa6eb1…
06-24 15:09:25	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260609011545513	No	BUY	280	24¢	$67	0xb3de72…
06-24 12:04:19	will the next uk prime minister be appointed by july 19 20260622183223871	No	BUY	414	18¢	$75	0xb6a21c…
06-23 08:05:05	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	207	52¢	$108	0x99cf97…
06-22 12:02:34	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	15	59¢	$9	0xd87682…
06-22 11:54:32	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	81	59¢	$48	0x5414e6…
06-22 11:52:28	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	73	59¢	$43	0x7ed402…
06-22 11:52:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,104	9¢	$99	0x8cfaf4…
06-22 11:52:07	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	39	59¢	$23	0xecb7b0…
06-22 08:47:40	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	55	42¢	$23	0x0960b7…
06-21 11:18:16	starmer out by june 26 2026 959 792 935	No	BUY	459	10¢	$46	0x7f533c…
06-21 09:04:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	131	37¢	$49	0xd6c063…
06-20 21:01:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	926	7¢	$65	0xd889a4…
06-20 21:00:59	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	64	46¢	$29	0xf84dae…
06-20 21:00:46	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	51	73¢	$38	0x45e1bd…
06-20 18:15:58	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xee9b0e…
06-20 18:14:40	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	18¢	$2	0xf79d9f…
06-20 18:14:20	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	18¢	$2	0x0a58f5…
06-20 18:11:47	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	18¢	$0	0x119ad8…
06-20 18:09:01	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x32a8ba…
06-20 18:08:58	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xe1a46b…
06-20 17:23:26	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	21	70¢	$15	0x075940…
06-20 13:39:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	142	32¢	$46	0x661069…
06-20 13:39:08	will vance shake hands with an iranian official by june 20 20260615195642306	No	SELL	45	99¢	$44	0x960458…
06-20 09:31:46	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x06e99c…
06-20 08:39:44	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0xb26597…
06-20 08:37:16	starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871	No	BUY	500	8¢	$40	0x124efa…
06-20 08:24:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	23	69¢	$16	0xae52ce…
06-20 01:45:41	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	34¢	$24	0xa0ba49…
06-19 17:09:10	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	113	39¢	$44	0xf15c14…
06-19 17:08:58	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	Yes	SELL	77	61¢	$47	0x61198f…
06-19 17:08:02	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	Yes	BUY	77	64¢	$49	0xfd6a3d…
06-19 17:07:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	114	38¢	$43	0xe5295b…
06-19 11:53:40	will vance shake hands with an iranian official by june 20 20260615195642306	No	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0x053322…
06-19 11:44:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	SELL	16	77¢	$12	0x6d8be4…
06-19 11:44:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	27	69¢	$19	0x0e1103…
06-19 11:44:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	89	86¢	$77	0x3f423d…
06-19 08:34:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	40	83¢	$33	0xa1c35b…
06-19 06:45:37	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	180	27¢	$49	0x6bb5a0…
06-19 05:44:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	133	27¢	$36	0x19a96c…
06-19 05:37:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	102	56¢	$57	0x90f211…
06-19 05:27:32	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	165	26¢	$43	0x6d87ea…
06-19 05:13:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	160	73¢	$117	0x289a74…
06-18 17:00:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	44	52¢	$23	0x992a8b…
06-18 17:00:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	No	BUY	68	59¢	$40	0xda4697…
06-18 16:38:02	starmer out by october 31 2026	No	BUY	207	19¢	$39	0xf150cb…
06-18 16:37:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	SELL	107	40¢	$43	0x8de329…
06-18 15:20:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	SELL	34	72¢	$25	0x4abe48…
06-18 13:29:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xc690db…