Smooth-Influence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$539

Hit rate

91.1%

Resolved

442

Trades

1,655

lifetime

Volume

$475.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$287

Open exposure

$7.22K

17 positions

First seen

2026-03-17

last 11-12 22:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

50% 75% +$6,107

Crypto

31% 91% +$10,134

Politics

17% 80% +$4,667

Tech

2% 92% +$1,249

Sports

0% 100% +$73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 71 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	+1,750	$1,500	88¢	$1.5K	+$49	11-12 22:50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+1,205	$1,000	84¢	$1.0K	+$18	11-12 17:47
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?	No	+800	$690	92¢	$740	+$50	11-05 15:04
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+688	$530	96¢	$661	+$131	11-06 15:48
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?	No	+881	$740	56¢	$489	-$251	11-03 12:41
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $136 in November?	No	+602	$500	78¢	$470	-$30	11-12 19:46
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 in November?	No	+608	$527	73¢	$444	-$83	11-09 18:19
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $250 in November?	No	+366	$300	90¢	$329	+$29	11-02 20:55
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November?	No	+349	$300	76¢	$263	-$37	11-02 18:35
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	+244	$200	86¢	$210	+$10	10-31 16:47
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November?	No	+359	$300	56¢	$201	-$99	11-02 15:00
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in November?	No	+244	$229	76¢	$184	-$45	11-04 21:50
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	+426	$300	43¢	$183	-$117	10-31 17:29
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $110 in November?	No	+300	$240	44¢	$132	-$108	11-05 14:30
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	No	+147	$100	84¢	$123	+$23	10-31 16:49
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+131	$100	86¢	$113	+$13	10-31 17:25
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	+237	$200	45¢	$108	-$92	11-03 14:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$19.4K	10,037	10,037	+0	No	+$657	07-06 15:35
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	4	$15.8K	8,204	8,204	+0	Yes	+$592	05-23 17:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$11.9K	6,339	6,339	+0	No	+$719	05-27 20:54
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	15	$10.1K	5,439	5,439	+0	No	+$632	05-21 12:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	8	$8.8K	11,324	0	+11,324	Yes	+$2,482	07-25 19:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$8.5K	4,468	4,468	+0	No	+$361	05-29 12:52
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	3	$7.9K	7,961	0	+7,961	No	+$61	11-04 02:19
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	8	$7.1K	7,813	0	+7,813	No	+$707	07-29 22:13
will bitcoin dip to 55k in august 2026	41	$7.0K	3,854	3,854	+0	No	+$576	08-19 23:39
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	9	$6.9K	5,546	2,000	+3,546	No	+$640	04-29 22:41
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	56	$6.4K	3,386	3,385	+0	No	+$352	08-24 16:41
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	13	$6.1K	3,430	3,430	+0	No	+$675	03-27 15:30
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	6	$6.1K	3,345	3,306	+39	No	+$508	04-17 16:07
israel closes its airspace by july 24	3	$5.7K	6,402	0	+6,402	No	+$677	07-23 23:13
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	4	$5.2K	2,482	3,430	-948	No	+$706	04-30 11:41
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	10	$4.9K	2,892	2,892	+0	No	+$842	05-27 15:08
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	4	$4.6K	2,454	2,454	+0	No	+$285	07-22 13:32
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	2	$4.4K	2,381	2,381	+0	No	+$367	06-19 01:35
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	7	$4.3K	2,258	2,258	+0	No	+$111	04-11 00:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$4.2K	2,483	2,483	+0	No	+$770	04-27 00:47
elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 140 164	4	$4.1K	2,124	2,124	+0	No	+$142	03-21 15:04
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	19	$4.0K	3,235	3,235	+0	Yes	-$937	03-29 13:11
will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	3	$3.7K	2,036	2,036	+0	No	+$321	07-22 16:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?	5	$3.6K	1,941	1,941	+0	No	+$282	09-23 03:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$3.6K	3,775	0	+3,775	Yes	+$221	10-28 17:03
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	6	$3.4K	1,916	1,916	+0	No	+$355	06-18 22:28
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	9	$3.1K	1,702	1,702	+0	No	+$222	10-23 00:53
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	5	$3.1K	1,785	1,785	+0	No	+$427	03-24 22:30
will ethereum dip to 1600 in august 2026	5	$3.0K	1,623	1,623	+0	No	+$225	08-20 16:25
will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026 from july 14	6	$3.0K	2,676	2,676	+0	Yes	-$2,098	07-31 14:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 22:50:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	587	85¢	$500	0x4b72c2…
11-12 19:46:57	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $136 in November?	No	BUY	602	83¢	$500	0xe4ebc8…
11-12 17:47:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	1,205	83¢	$1,000	0xd271a0…
11-09 19:13:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x950e08…
11-09 18:51:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	68	100¢	$68	0x73aa77…
11-09 18:28:46	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x2265aa…
11-09 18:19:57	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 in November?	No	BUY	358	84¢	$300	0xb9f34b…
11-09 18:17:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x2d1bf2…
11-09 18:17:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	Yes	BUY	1,163	86¢	$1,000	0x508a0c…
11-09 18:15:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	250	11¢	$28	0xbf7001…
11-06 18:41:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $144 in November?	No	BUY	249	91¢	$227	0x6b9f68…
11-06 18:24:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xf3cc6e…
11-06 15:48:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	688	77¢	$530	0x1f78e7…
11-06 15:21:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	181	100¢	$181	0xabd01d…
11-06 15:00:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0x949a56…
11-06 14:50:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x121169…
11-06 14:49:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	101	100¢	$101	0x60344d…
11-06 14:34:28	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	SELL	102	100¢	$102	0xfae66f…
11-05 15:04:42	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?	No	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x3febe8…
11-05 14:30:25	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $110 in November?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x2c0b8f…
11-05 12:27:43	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in November?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0x34a419…
11-04 21:50:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in November?	No	BUY	244	94¢	$229	0xd2b719…
11-04 18:11:43	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x60cabb…
11-04 16:05:30	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in November?	No	BUY	300	86¢	$259	0xa3082b…
11-04 15:39:18	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	229	87¢	$200	0x4836fc…
11-04 15:02:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$25	0xeaa1ab…
11-04 15:02:30	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x76e99c…
11-04 14:31:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0xf9ede3…
11-04 14:10:25	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0x1b3745…
11-04 14:10:24	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	87	87¢	$76	0x61bfb3…
11-04 02:19:00	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	6,914	100¢	$6,900	0xeb1fb5…
11-04 02:17:49	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	228	90¢	$205	0x775e74…
11-04 00:24:37	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	422	92¢	$390	0x38124e…
11-03 21:55:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	521	96¢	$500	0x5dae41…
11-03 19:08:42	Blue wave in 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x85412d…
11-03 15:25:58	Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0xd57583…
11-03 15:24:25	Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	216	93¢	$200	0x24d249…
11-03 14:56:37	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	237	84¢	$200	0x87af24…
11-03 13:43:48	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	224	87¢	$195	0x6d2427…
11-03 13:16:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	526	95¢	$500	0xb9388d…
11-03 13:00:27	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	198	86¢	$170	0x9e7c8b…
11-03 12:41:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?	No	BUY	286	84¢	$240	0x5ae94f…
11-02 23:23:46	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0xac2fd9…
11-02 21:56:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x8e66a8…
11-02 20:55:03	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $250 in November?	No	BUY	360	82¢	$295	0xe46314…
11-02 20:50:54	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $250 in November?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xf7174f…
11-02 20:20:45	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in November?	No	BUY	345	87¢	$300	0x7e357d…
11-02 18:49:30	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?	No	BUY	98	87¢	$85	0xff7e75…
11-02 18:49:30	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in November?	No	BUY	402	87¢	$350	0x9e9661…
11-02 18:45:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Yes	BUY	532	94¢	$500	0x6418cb…
11-02 18:35:58	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November?	No	BUY	349	86¢	$300	0xd81a0e…
11-02 15:36:04	Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	88¢	$200	0x84755b…
11-02 15:00:04	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November?	No	BUY	359	84¢	$300	0x6cc72e…
11-02 14:58:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?	No	BUY	595	84¢	$500	0x468f3f…
11-01 13:18:49	1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	469	80¢	$375	0xfaf684…
10-31 21:25:13	Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	62	76¢	$48	0xa4cc9f…
10-31 19:26:03	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	163	86¢	$140	0x3a3870…
10-31 19:20:00	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0xea970e…
10-31 17:35:10	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xe35cfa…
10-31 17:29:54	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	No	BUY	426	70¢	$300	0x038834…
10-31 17:25:07	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x6d4028…
10-31 16:49:31	Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0x0cb106…
10-31 16:47:40	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0xc76645…
10-29 15:13:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?	No	BUY	364	87¢	$315	0xf271f3…
10-29 14:09:02	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	No	BUY	167	90¢	$150	0x6f1236…
10-29 14:04:35	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	No	BUY	914	88¢	$800	0x3efd68…
10-29 14:04:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x8d89d6…
10-29 14:01:07	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	No	BUY	575	87¢	$500	0x777973…
10-29 01:08:08	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x1ac575…
10-28 21:55:14	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	No	BUY	379	79¢	$300	0xa879e8…
10-28 20:45:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x583189…
10-28 20:44:34	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	99	83¢	$82	0xc3c8de…
10-28 20:44:23	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	148	81¢	$120	0x001a7b…
10-28 20:40:01	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	391	77¢	$300	0xf5324d…
10-28 20:38:35	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	568	88¢	$500	0xdd8d89…
10-28 17:03:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,339	95¢	$1,275	0xe90b83…
10-28 17:02:22	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0xca6c33…
10-27 22:27:56	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x6643c5…
10-27 18:46:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	271	74¢	$200	0x30d86e…
10-27 17:26:26	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	89¢	$100	0x5686f3…
10-27 17:23:33	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0x0547f3…
10-27 16:50:29	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	90¢	$270	0xce16f8…
10-27 16:39:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	93¢	$466	0x919b64…
10-27 16:36:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	321	93¢	$300	0x12af58…
10-27 16:29:45	Will Russia capture Bilytske by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x801afc…
10-27 08:56:11	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	SELL	43	99¢	$43	0x34a78b…
10-26 17:21:03	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x5f8e80…
10-26 14:42:53	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0xe6561b…
10-26 14:29:11	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	SELL	407	99¢	$403	0x66a5b0…
10-26 13:37:33	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	No	SELL	1,154	99¢	$1,142	0x557480…
10-25 22:51:54	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	212	92¢	$195	0xe10271…
10-25 18:08:15	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xc654e7…
10-25 17:58:00	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x65cc43…
10-25 17:57:51	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xc935ce…
10-25 17:57:06	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	24	92¢	$22	0xf6a328…
10-25 17:56:51	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0xf8e6d0…
10-25 17:56:51	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x714255…
10-25 17:54:42	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xab9003…
10-25 17:52:20	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x50ccf5…
10-25 17:41:50	Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x4cdbe2…