Flawed-Mantle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$88

Unrealized P&L

-$133

Hit rate

47.6%

Resolved

209

Trades

454

lifetime

Volume

$4.32K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$114

9 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 11-02 18:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Other

80% 29% +$195

Politics

14% 21% -$212

Sports

6% 18% -$65

Crypto

1% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+300	$69	17¢	$51	-$18	11-01 16:12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+380	$145	8¢	$32	-$113	09-22 20:45
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Yes	+200	$16	6¢	$13	-$3	07-21 21:55
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?	Yes	+720	$4	2¢	$11	+$7	08-26 19:55
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	+107	$8	2¢	$2	-$5	09-09 18:51
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Yes	+108	$1	1¢	$2	+$1	09-23 09:21
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?	Yes	+900	$2	0¢	$1	$0	09-23 09:20
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	+400	$2	0¢	$1	-$1	10-27 16:26
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	+140	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-23 01:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by december 31 2026 20260716215104508	4	$208	160	160	+0	Yes	+$106	07-21 21:39
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	7	$159	183	183	+0	Yes	+$112	10-31 05:07
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	8	$145	380	0	+380	open	—	09-22 20:45
fifwc bra mar 2026 06 13 btts	3	$119	80	80	+0	Yes	+$41	06-13 22:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	9	$103	895	455	+440	No	-$30	10-11 14:51
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	2	$95	84	84	+0	No	-$32	06-14 21:18
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	2	$94	290	0	+290	No	-$94	10-07 13:28
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	2	$85	100	100	+0	No	+$51	06-18 20:47
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$75	50	50	+0	Yes	+$25	05-30 21:18
fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	2	$73	50	50	+0	No	+$27	06-17 20:13
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	1	$69	300	0	+300	open	—	11-01 16:12
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	2	$67	80	80	+0	Yes	+$0	06-19 21:31
fifwc fra sen 2026 06 16 btts	2	$67	50	50	+0	Yes	+$21	06-16 20:52
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	6	$62	57	57	+0	Yes	+$49	09-21 19:32
fifwc che bih 2026 06 18 btts	3	$58	160	70	+90	Yes	+$79	06-18 20:48
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score	5	$56	40	40	+0	Yes	+$17	06-07 17:14
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	2	$54	50	50	+0	No	+$17	06-15 20:01
fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	2	$49	30	30	+0	Argentina	+$11	07-07 18:16
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 30, 2026?	10	$48	89	89	+0	Yes	+$3	08-29 21:48
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	7	$48	220	220	+0	No	-$42	09-19 21:06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$42	236	0	+236	No	-$42	04-07 21:16
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07?	4	$41	290	0	+290	Yes	-$41	06-07 18:28
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	2	$39	30	30	+0	Yes	+$21	06-15 21:29
Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-25?	3	$38	60	60	+0	Yes	-$2	09-25 19:15
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	4	$38	109	0	+109	No	-$38	09-20 17:54
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	1	$38	60	0	+60	Yes	+$22	06-14 00:12
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	3	$37	257	0	+257	Yes	-$37	09-20 19:01
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	2	$36	50	18	+32	England	+$15	07-06 00:58
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$35	200	200	+0	No	-$8	07-04 17:01
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	3	$35	187	80	+107	open	—	09-09 18:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 18:06:25	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	8¢	$7	0xb276a1…
11-02 15:03:28	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	8¢	$4	0x832e48…
11-02 08:01:46	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xff3798…
11-02 01:00:57	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x999e64…
11-01 16:12:27	Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	23¢	$69	0x1187ac…
11-01 15:22:58	Will voter turnout be 77% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	140	3¢	$4	0xf7febc…
10-31 05:07:49	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	39	98¢	$38	0x7b672f…
10-31 04:01:25	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x03b9d8…
10-31 04:00:45	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x8d5af0…
10-30 23:01:34	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0x15a134…
10-30 22:41:30	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4a9c96…
10-30 22:39:06	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xeb5858…
10-30 22:38:33	Nawrocki out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x93c9bb…
10-30 22:38:25	Nawrocki out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0xbfe4bd…
10-30 22:38:16	Tusk out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0xb3d720…
10-29 23:13:18	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	SELL	92	50¢	$46	0x31a0ba…
10-28 19:44:14	Will voter turnout be 77% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	31	50¢	$16	0xe2cb36…
10-27 18:58:21	Will voter turnout be 77% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	31	25¢	$8	0xc57b4f…
10-27 16:26:11	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x27c2d8…
10-27 15:15:03	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x9c11ac…
10-27 02:54:27	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	68	0¢	$0	0xeb6b92…
10-27 02:54:27	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x4e10a8…
10-26 18:04:50	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf16ded…
10-26 18:04:50	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	91	0¢	$0	0xa861ad…
10-26 18:04:50	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x487a44…
10-25 18:15:03	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x65aade…
10-25 08:12:42	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x422464…
10-25 05:49:14	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x7bb5df…
10-25 05:49:03	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	1¢	$0	0xb53584…
10-25 05:48:47	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x34e7fd…
10-24 11:10:27	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x9d2953…
10-19 21:13:49	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x1fa7c7…
10-17 20:24:57	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x5d8585…
10-14 16:49:48	Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	Yes	BUY	183	13¢	$24	0x536df3…
10-11 15:02:49	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	2¢	$2	0x95498f…
10-11 14:51:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	6¢	$14	0x43d9a6…
10-11 14:49:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x799f3a…
10-11 14:40:39	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	2¢	$14	0x6ea88f…
10-11 14:37:03	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7ac7df…
10-07 13:28:38	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	30¢	$75	0x1622bc…
10-07 13:01:16	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	5¢	$6	0x391b06…
10-03 20:53:34	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	139	11¢	$15	0x774abd…
10-01 19:15:45	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0xe91af7…
09-28 18:03:14	will russia announce a new forced mobilization by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xb370c5…
09-28 15:32:51	Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-28?	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x02e1e9…
09-25 19:15:38	Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xddf035…
09-25 19:07:21	Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	SELL	30	31¢	$9	0xc33947…
09-25 18:16:42	Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0xd7c400…
09-23 16:49:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	8¢	$7	0x89682b…
09-23 16:38:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x3ce1e1…
09-23 16:30:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x84b97e…
09-23 16:27:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	350	8¢	$28	0xfab222…
09-23 15:41:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x366162…
09-23 15:40:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc95e9d…
09-23 15:34:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x4f696d…
09-23 09:21:55	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027?	Yes	BUY	108	1¢	$1	0xaed534…
09-23 09:20:31	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?	Yes	BUY	900	0¢	$2	0x565a85…
09-23 01:24:53	Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0x9ad9b0…
09-22 20:45:51	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	28¢	$17	0x008dfe…
09-22 20:45:18	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	28¢	$11	0xdf3a84…
09-22 18:30:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x759b57…
09-22 18:10:33	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	4¢	$3	0x29a7a5…
09-21 19:32:40	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xba7a94…
09-21 19:32:19	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	57	97¢	$55	0x914dd9…
09-20 19:01:55	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	87	4¢	$3	0xce50ab…
09-20 18:14:40	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x7f1a0d…
09-20 18:10:34	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x119fa5…
09-20 18:00:48	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xcd4715…
09-20 17:56:40	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0xe87bf7…
09-20 17:55:22	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x17e2da…
09-20 17:54:40	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0xedac5a…
09-20 11:15:16	Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x4c1e5c…
09-20 09:54:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x5b1c16…
09-19 21:07:51	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	70	20¢	$14	0x1036e7…
09-19 21:07:06	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	24¢	$14	0x49e456…
09-19 21:06:48	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Yes	SELL	220	1¢	$3	0x15b201…
09-19 21:06:33	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	60	11¢	$7	0xef2e08…
09-18 00:43:48	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0x415905…
09-17 22:50:52	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0xf49b27…
09-17 22:50:52	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x15a6b7…
09-17 19:25:33	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xf1a840…
09-17 19:25:33	Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x270979…
09-16 19:48:19	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xfac200…
09-14 21:55:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xcbdd77…
09-14 19:29:55	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	26¢	$16	0xeebeef…
09-13 15:55:43	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	39¢	$17	0xd34b4b…
09-13 00:55:28	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	15	10¢	$2	0xdc5c82…
09-13 00:55:28	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x80ade4…
09-13 00:55:28	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x5ee935…
09-13 00:55:28	Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x473523…
09-12 22:33:04	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	39¢	$3	0xdd2328…
09-12 07:20:28	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	31	6¢	$2	0xe6ad0c…
09-11 19:11:43	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0x9dd2c5…
09-11 11:12:06	Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x150f19…
09-11 06:46:21	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x083fe7…
09-09 18:51:58	Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	BUY	107	10¢	$11	0xac3a15…
09-05 16:33:57	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Yes	BUY	95	18¢	$17	0xfa2487…
09-05 16:33:54	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0x95aec8…
09-05 16:33:48	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Yes	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x1a3cec…
09-05 15:22:12	Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30?	Yes	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x9d1dd4…