Thorny-Packaging — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$7

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

204

lifetime

Volume

$6.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-20

last 07-08 08:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

39% 0% $-0

Other

36% — —

Tech

20% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes		-200	$-11	5¢	$-9	+$2	06-20 22:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	6	$979	500	500	+0	open	—	04-15 05:12
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	4	$785	400	400	+0	open	—	04-15 07:42
will the dravida munnetra kazhagam dmk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	3	$302	200	200	+0	open	—	04-24 05:05
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	9	$240	194	194	+0	open	—	06-16 10:54
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	2	$236	200	200	+0	open	—	05-06 16:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$221	1,180	1,180	+0	open	—	05-17 08:18
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	5	$217	210	210	+0	Yes	$-0	04-24 05:28
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	2	$198	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-04 07:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$197	100	100	+0	open	—	04-03 11:41
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	5	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-04 11:51
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$187	100	100	+0	open	—	04-03 23:56
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	8	$183	177	177	+0	open	—	04-24 05:25
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	2	$111	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 08:23
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?	2	$92	100	100	+0	open	—	05-15 07:47
will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	5	$80	80	80	+0	open	—	06-04 07:54
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	2	$78	50	50	+0	open	—	06-16 11:08
grok 4pt4 released by july 10	4	$77	40	40	+0	open	—	07-08 08:14
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	2	$76	126	126	+0	open	—	05-15 08:38
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$72	0	100	-100	open	—	05-23 06:18
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	4	$72	83	83	+0	open	—	05-28 12:32
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	6	$72	171	200	-29	open	—	03-20 20:59
will mrbeasts next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 432	7	$70	95	95	+0	open	—	03-20 21:16
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	3	$65	271	271	+0	open	—	06-16 10:36
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$63	40	40	+0	open	—	06-01 07:17
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?	3	$63	100	100	+0	open	—	05-06 15:46
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31?	2	$62	40	40	+0	open	—	06-01 07:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	05-12 09:22
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?	3	$60	40	40	+0	open	—	06-01 07:33
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	3	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-15 07:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	05-12 16:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 08:21:08	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xd3ce21…
07-08 08:20:31	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	19	16¢	$3	0x73f652…
07-08 08:16:40	spy closes above 750 on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0x905341…
07-08 08:16:38	spy closes above 750 on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x34ed44…
07-08 08:14:04	grok 4pt4 released by july 10	Yes	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xfb2421…
07-08 08:13:26	grok 4pt4 released by july 10	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x8c36b3…
07-08 08:05:11	grok 4pt4 released by july 10	Yes	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x10497f…
07-08 08:03:37	grok 4pt4 released by july 10	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x1d8ffb…
07-08 08:00:10	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260707223722047	Yes	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0xcf2626…
07-08 07:58:41	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260707223722047	Yes	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0x5cd0ce…
07-08 07:53:49	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x909c06…
07-08 07:52:07	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 12 20260707201153015	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x08f903…
07-08 07:42:01	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x581768…
07-02 06:17:13	will the announcers say tempo during the portugal vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260701163644156	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x50be90…
07-02 06:04:28	will the announcers say tempo during the portugal vs croatia fifa world cup match 20260701163644156	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xcbda63…
06-20 22:36:53	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$7	0xd05b54…
06-20 22:36:29	ebola pandemic in 2026	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x5fd4dd…
06-20 22:36:22	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$11	0xcb0c0c…
06-16 11:08:54	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x24f57e…
06-16 11:08:37	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$2	0x97c8b6…
06-16 11:08:24	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x3b492c…
06-16 11:07:12	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0xb22bf6…
06-16 11:07:09	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xa565de…
06-16 10:54:06	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	SELL	44	25¢	$11	0x420851…
06-16 10:53:31	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	3	25¢	$1	0xa84b1a…
06-16 10:53:27	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	No	BUY	41	25¢	$10	0x157099…
06-16 10:51:24	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	SELL	50	69¢	$34	0xbf9387…
06-16 10:50:58	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x677158…
06-16 10:48:39	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	SELL	50	70¢	$35	0x0c189d…
06-16 10:48:18	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xd3f2d0…
06-16 10:44:42	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x541201…
06-16 10:44:00	will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 19 20260615191216217	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x8609a8…
06-16 10:36:06	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	171	26¢	$45	0x4cd566…
06-13 14:56:09	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x81e99e…
06-05 16:13:49	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	271	4¢	$10	0x3dc6bc…
06-05 10:54:15	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	7¢	$22	0xc1edc9…
06-05 10:53:42	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	700	2¢	$14	0xf60be9…
06-04 07:54:24	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0xc690e8…
06-01 18:06:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	2¢	$8	0x812fcf…
06-01 17:10:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5ed714…
06-01 14:12:49	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xc69cda…
06-01 14:10:45	Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0x8d0ff7…
06-01 14:02:00	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	700	2¢	$14	0x13cb1d…
06-01 14:00:25	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	8¢	$22	0xf2d670…
06-01 13:45:54	Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	317	2¢	$5	0x24df66…
06-01 13:36:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	35¢	$28	0x894c91…
06-01 13:13:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	29¢	$23	0x8f8ccd…
06-01 12:06:28	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?	No	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x41dae8…
06-01 07:33:49	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?	No	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0x4db659…
06-01 07:32:32	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x0fb1de…
06-01 07:32:30	Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?	No	BUY	37	75¢	$28	0x7e4fcf…
06-01 07:32:09	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	27¢	$0	0x11aae7…
06-01 07:29:54	Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0x1ee072…
06-01 07:17:38	Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xeaa4a1…
06-01 07:17:24	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x737b68…
06-01 07:17:06	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x557f02…
06-01 07:14:53	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0x997615…
06-01 07:04:20	Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31?	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x2fa570…
06-01 06:55:45	Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31?	No	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xb255da…
06-01 06:30:52	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xfd89dc…
06-01 06:29:13	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xe04285…
06-01 06:28:45	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x95a730…
06-01 06:26:19	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xfae04f…
06-01 06:25:37	Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x878405…
06-01 06:19:23	Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	No	BUY	40	84¢	$34	0x07d74b…
05-28 12:32:20	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0x065bec…
05-28 10:59:52	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	No	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0xa28ccf…
05-28 09:15:01	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	No	SELL	33	30¢	$10	0x26b92f…
05-28 08:15:31	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0xac7e34…
05-28 08:14:52	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x73de58…
05-28 08:12:03	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	46¢	$23	0x3dfc81…
05-28 08:11:19	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0xf65316…
05-28 08:02:23	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	SELL	48	21¢	$10	0xc87232…
05-28 08:00:24	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x390792…
05-28 08:00:03	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x6a52a6…
05-28 08:00:03	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x005592…
05-28 07:34:53	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	SELL	33	64¢	$21	0xcdf0cb…
05-28 07:34:13	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	No	BUY	33	64¢	$21	0xe028ab…
05-28 07:24:06	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	No	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xfba708…
05-28 07:20:48	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May?	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x281508…
05-28 07:19:01	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0x6e9f0a…
05-28 07:18:40	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x856c24…
05-28 07:18:37	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0xe67d48…
05-28 07:17:21	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0xc35dea…
05-28 07:17:04	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x62e186…
05-23 06:41:35	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	SELL	25	74¢	$18	0xa64794…
05-23 06:25:42	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0xe6f51f…
05-23 06:18:47	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x9710c6…
05-23 06:18:31	Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x3b2a18…
05-22 13:22:58	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x518c14…
05-22 13:22:09	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x3429dd…
05-18 15:15:10	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xf2329f…
05-18 00:20:41	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x3baece…
05-17 08:18:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x451764…
05-17 07:53:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x68806b…
05-17 06:06:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0x19f907…
05-17 06:04:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x330d20…
05-15 08:38:00	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Nigma Galaxy	SELL	126	30¢	$38	0x1acc02…
05-15 08:35:56	Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B	Nigma Galaxy	BUY	126	30¢	$38	0x66a2cd…
05-15 08:23:25	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x2b45b5…