Messy-Simple — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

122

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$2.74K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$17

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-29 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

43% 96% +$4

Politics

36% 100% +$13

Crypto

13% 100% +$2

Tech

6% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$383	200	200	+0	open	—	10-29 13:19
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	8	$161	81	81	+0	No	+$1	09-01 06:30
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	3	$160	80	80	+0	No	+$0	09-07 13:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$146	73	73	+0	No	+$0	10-05 04:48
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$135	73	73	+0	No	+$3	10-21 12:04
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$122	84	84	+0	open	—	10-25 21:34
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	3	$119	61	61	+0	No	+$0	08-27 17:45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$118	59	59	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 13:41
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$89	97	0	+97	Yes	+$8	10-25 23:25
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	1	$81	81	0	+81	Yes	+$0	09-22 15:09
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$80	81	0	+81	No	+$0	09-10 19:34
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$75	76	0	+76	No	+$0	08-10 18:04
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$72	73	0	+73	No	+$1	08-15 12:45
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$71	72	0	+72	No	+$1	08-13 13:38
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$71	71	0	+71	No	+$1	08-12 14:15
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$64	64	0	+64	No	+$0	08-22 12:11
Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	2	$63	64	0	+64	Yes	+$1	08-20 18:58
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	1	$56	56	0	+56	No	+$0	07-31 19:42
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$0	06-30 01:48
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	05-30 12:49
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	06-26 15:30
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$45	45	0	+45	No	+$0	04-29 09:05
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	5	$40	69	69	+0	open	—	10-17 11:50
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	1	$39	39	0	+39	No	+$0	05-13 13:16
will dogecoin reach 0pt15 in march 2026	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	03-31 00:35
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	10-17 23:22
meta above 540 on january 30 2026	2	$15	15	0	+15	Yes	+$0	01-15 07:12
will chainlink hit 21 in january	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	01-23 20:09
will silver si hit high 80 by end of june	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	06-26 11:55
nflx above 20 on february 27 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	Yes	+$0	02-26 07:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:19:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	103	100¢	$103	0x80fd76…
10-29 03:18:04	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0xdac2d3…
10-28 03:55:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x12b365…
10-28 03:55:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x0a33c2…
10-28 03:55:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	31	94¢	$30	0x097a30…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	97	89¢	$86	0xcffda4…
10-25 23:25:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	97	92¢	$89	0xcf5276…
10-25 22:08:56	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	SELL	330	0¢	$1	0x708ba8…
10-25 21:34:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	78	75¢	$59	0x56ce26…
10-25 21:33:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x976521…
10-24 00:15:39	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	330	0¢	$0	0x910080…
10-22 11:12:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	84	70¢	$59	0x1a6c0c…
10-21 12:04:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	73	94¢	$69	0x45cd2e…
10-19 17:05:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	73	90¢	$66	0x3044d3…
10-17 23:22:47	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x0b3a52…
10-17 11:50:15	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	69	29¢	$20	0x0b6a49…
10-13 03:29:29	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	29	29¢	$8	0x4e8487…
10-13 03:18:48	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x41d95a…
10-13 02:54:08	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x5161b5…
10-13 01:37:23	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	30	29¢	$9	0x9d2866…
10-10 07:56:24	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x11eff3…
10-05 04:48:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	73	100¢	$73	0x531076…
10-03 20:57:07	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x74d334…
09-24 19:17:35	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	73	99¢	$73	0x96a2d6…
09-24 10:55:11	Will Solana dip to $50 in September?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ad16b…
09-22 15:09:21	Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?	Yes	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xea1aad…
09-10 19:34:06	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	81	99¢	$80	0xa4437f…
09-07 13:01:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x2ff7e5…
09-06 02:11:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xb8e6e4…
09-06 01:50:07	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0xa41147…
09-01 06:30:55	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x15420b…
09-01 06:27:06	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x229129…
09-01 06:22:49	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$39	0x478e77…
09-01 04:38:52	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0xc30942…
08-31 17:01:34	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x3c7eba…
08-31 16:57:18	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x291292…
08-31 16:40:15	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xdd48be…
08-31 16:20:57	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xb2eba2…
08-31 13:41:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	59	100¢	$59	0x362db1…
08-27 22:36:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x37d556…
08-27 17:45:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	61	97¢	$60	0xaa8208…
08-27 15:39:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in August?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x98a29a…
08-24 21:24:48	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x61be3d…
08-24 20:18:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xdff888…
08-24 19:54:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x1a2508…
08-24 02:24:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5089b1…
08-23 18:26:43	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x5e3f68…
08-23 18:24:34	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x64eeed…
08-22 12:11:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	64	100¢	$64	0xb39207…
08-21 16:35:30	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xaabad8…
08-20 18:58:30	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	45	99¢	$44	0x6f3381…
08-20 17:29:37	Aligned FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x9f90d9…
08-18 02:26:18	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x460546…
08-17 13:58:27	Will Microsoft be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x795bba…
08-17 04:22:25	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xbca84c…
08-16 07:58:09	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd8db3e…
08-15 12:45:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0xedfddd…
08-13 13:38:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	72	99¢	$71	0xc834b3…
08-12 14:15:13	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	71	99¢	$71	0x6da494…
08-11 18:40:39	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x8cdb0d…
08-11 17:28:39	Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcdccf0…
08-10 18:04:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	76	100¢	$75	0x3d916c…
08-04 17:24:39	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x174105…
07-31 21:27:23	will ethereum dip to 1600 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xfe3599…
07-31 19:42:39	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	56	100¢	$56	0x6f6dbe…
07-29 22:52:23	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0e7451…
07-28 06:04:25	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x55e0ee…
07-26 20:47:22	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbe7ba5…
07-26 02:53:10	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x601221…
07-25 08:11:00	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8a02c6…
07-23 14:03:12	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x42708f…
07-23 05:34:45	will xagusd dip to 50 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x6017af…
07-22 18:16:09	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf1c79d…
07-22 07:08:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8ef721…
07-17 13:24:07	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x114eb1…
06-30 01:48:23	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xc5387d…
06-27 20:57:28	Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2c5cbb…
06-27 13:16:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e746e…
06-27 07:37:46	Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3f63ac…
06-26 22:39:05	will saudi arabia reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120765	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc701c4…
06-26 15:30:07	Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xe08864…
06-26 11:55:28	will silver si hit high 80 by end of june	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x8ee28e…
06-26 11:27:50	Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x212ab0…
06-05 13:20:13	Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x9aec15…
05-30 12:49:32	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0xfbbf5d…
05-27 19:10:05	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe976ea…
05-25 01:38:23	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xdbfe46…
05-24 08:47:36	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xcc6ae6…
05-23 21:05:04	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x316578…
05-23 09:36:30	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xaf1192…
05-20 19:05:37	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $285 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf3b31b…
05-19 11:53:45	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5b9dd6…
05-13 13:16:10	Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xa00089…
05-13 08:01:59	Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x16664c…
05-09 02:03:13	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0bf738…
05-08 09:25:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x251a76…
05-08 04:33:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd9e2b6…
05-07 17:15:18	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x80fde1…
05-06 12:34:10	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa509a9…
05-06 09:56:48	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2be002…