Stupendous-Rowboat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

82.0%

Resolved

304

Trades

903

lifetime

Volume

$17.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 13:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Other

70% 67% +$126

Politics

17% 52% +$157

Sports

7% 69% -$261

Crypto

6% 62% -$35

Tech

0% 50% +$10

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes		+428	$7	0¢	$1	-$7	09-17 13:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	75	$939	714	704	+9	Yes	+$24	03-25 13:28
elon musk of tweets march 2026 1280 1319	3	$467	265	265	+0	No	+$1	03-31 12:36
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	7	$434	262	179	+83	Yes	+$6	03-29 10:28
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	2	$405	405	0	+405	No	+$0	05-31 12:42
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	6	$383	411	20	+391	Yes	+$46	06-12 15:47
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	9	$370	190	190	+0	No	+$4	04-02 18:29
donald trump of truth social posts april 3 april 10 60 79	1	$321	321	0	+321	No	+$0	04-07 22:37
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	2	$308	428	0	+428	No	+$120	09-17 13:34
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	3	$305	305	0	+305	No	+$0	05-29 23:17
donald trump of truth social posts february 27 march 6 160 179	1	$296	296	0	+296	No	+$0	03-05 17:41
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	14	$283	171	151	+20	Yes	+$5	04-17 14:50
donald trump of truth social posts march 31 april 7 40 59	5	$277	279	0	+279	No	+$2	04-06 00:08
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	16	$254	120	150	-30	Yes	+$1	04-08 15:03
elon musk of tweets march 10 0 9	1	$243	243	0	+243	No	+$0	03-10 21:53
elon musk of tweets february 7 february 9 140 164	74	$241	2,325	1,715	+610	No	-$35	02-09 13:55
andrew tate of tweets march 6 march 13 2026 100 129	1	$240	270	0	+270	Yes	+$30	03-11 19:48
nba nyk sac 2026 01 14	1	$231	285	0	+285	Kings	-$231	01-14 11:58
donald trump of truth social posts april 3 april 10 80 99	2	$226	228	0	+228	No	+$2	04-09 21:31
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	3	$214	125	125	+0	Yes	+$14	01-13 19:59
andrew tate of tweets february 24 march 3 2026 0 99	2	$206	207	0	+207	No	+$1	03-02 13:03
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in May 2026?	3	$205	205	0	+205	No	+$0	05-18 02:21
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets in April 2026?	4	$200	200	94	+106	No	+$0	04-17 13:40
epl ast not 2026 01 03 total 2pt5	3	$198	309	0	+309	Over	-$102	01-03 13:49
donald trump of truth social posts march 10 march 17 100 119	1	$195	300	0	+300	Yes	+$105	03-16 10:31
donald trump of truth social posts march 24 march 31 40 59	3	$187	187	0	+187	No	+$0	03-29 10:30
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 0 39	1	$182	182	0	+182	No	+$0	04-10 19:56
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	3	$177	90	90	+0	No	$0	03-27 09:12
nba phi nyk 2026 01 03	1	$176	303	0	+303	76ers	-$176	01-03 21:32
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$175	147	147	+0	No	-$39	02-09 14:17
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	1	$169	169	0	+169	No	+$0	04-24 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:49:34	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	428	0¢	$2	0x0530df…
10-25 15:26:50	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x8ae576…
10-25 15:26:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x613a72…
10-25 15:26:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	153	1¢	$1	0xdb44ce…
10-25 15:16:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xd357cc…
10-25 14:50:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	17	62¢	$11	0xfa52ec…
10-25 14:46:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xf69321…
10-25 14:46:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x6045c7…
10-25 14:43:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x5a181d…
10-25 14:41:27	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x13b4bb…
10-25 14:40:23	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x547f08…
10-25 14:37:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb8dcde…
10-25 14:37:02	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xdceafa…
10-25 14:36:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xa49b06…
10-25 14:36:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xa484e4…
10-25 14:32:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	3¢	$2	0x1a50a5…
10-25 14:32:29	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xfff6cb…
10-25 14:31:03	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x21fd48…
10-09 14:20:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	84¢	$14	0x4a4a9a…
09-30 16:53:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xffc4c7…
09-25 15:10:41	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x8b905e…
09-25 15:07:47	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x34ad44…
09-18 14:45:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x2b8db1…
09-18 14:43:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x88599c…
09-18 14:39:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x60dcee…
09-18 14:34:57	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x84ef8d…
09-17 13:34:46	Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xb79f73…
09-17 13:34:39	Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0xcec891…
09-17 13:34:34	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	17¢	$25	0x851814…
09-17 13:34:24	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	150	75¢	$112	0x037923…
09-17 13:08:52	Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	0¢	$1	0x6555d0…
09-17 13:08:42	Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	2¢	$5	0xc1ab66…
09-17 13:08:34	Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	17¢	$47	0xb4d674…
09-17 13:08:00	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	278	70¢	$195	0xc0309c…
08-20 11:30:48	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb01fcd…
08-18 22:50:27	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x507cbe…
08-05 20:45:59	Will "Beef" win 10 or more awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0x85bc4d…
08-05 20:45:48	Will "Beef" win 8 or 9 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x8d4a26…
08-05 20:45:41	Will "Beef" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	2¢	$2	0xb38dbd…
08-05 20:45:30	Will "Beef" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0x75464e…
08-05 20:45:21	Will "Beef" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	42¢	$39	0xd124a2…
08-05 20:45:12	Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	92	42¢	$38	0x60ee24…
08-02 17:46:47	Will The Grammys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb8f5a2…
08-02 17:46:35	Will The Golden Globes win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x5d0872…
08-02 17:46:27	Will The Tonys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xbea5d9…
08-02 17:46:14	Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x9f7082…
08-02 17:45:59	Will The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x06118a…
08-01 11:58:50	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$11	0x316991…
08-01 11:58:38	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x8e6172…
07-29 17:28:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x868b46…
07-29 17:05:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x3e9f4f…
07-29 17:04:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc31c8c…
07-29 17:04:21	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0x2f3043…
07-27 05:22:52	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xf49ce6…
07-25 03:37:19	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xc0dcf4…
07-24 18:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x12e44d…
07-19 15:15:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0xb6c7fe…
07-19 15:14:57	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x230656…
07-18 22:46:24	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x49f94a…
07-18 21:07:01	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0xed57a5…
07-18 13:28:07	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	No	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0xd919a9…
07-11 14:44:25	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	130	19¢	$24	0x7ad197…
07-11 13:34:20	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	150	41¢	$61	0xcf2515…
07-11 13:34:10	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	150	35¢	$52	0xe346ad…
07-11 13:34:04	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xaf9822…
07-11 13:13:01	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	60	38¢	$23	0x3282d1…
07-11 13:12:53	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	60	34¢	$20	0x0392cb…
07-11 13:12:46	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0xe42d88…
06-27 20:59:17	Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x587db9…
06-26 19:54:04	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x4fb916…
06-23 14:14:07	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x712fdc…
06-23 14:08:55	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x0d66df…
06-23 14:07:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x2a68b0…
06-23 13:56:52	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	65¢	$3	0xca1b3c…
06-23 13:43:17	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x3dec51…
06-23 13:26:35	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x363651…
06-19 15:24:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	94¢	$9	0xee6c24…
06-19 15:23:40	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	92¢	$9	0x1d7f5b…
06-19 11:10:50	Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8ce768…
06-19 11:10:34	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x9ef1ca…
06-16 14:12:41	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xad79ae…
06-16 13:49:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8eaa5e…
06-16 13:44:01	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x86f249…
06-15 11:43:52	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026?	No	BUY	103	100¢	$103	0x4933b0…
06-12 15:47:46	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xdc64d2…
06-12 15:34:37	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	84¢	$18	0x417ce9…
06-12 15:34:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	85¢	$76	0x66433d…
06-12 15:33:04	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xb1288e…
06-12 15:33:01	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	280	90¢	$252	0x0daf14…
06-12 15:32:54	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xf8a157…
06-11 18:15:28	Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x05a889…
06-11 18:14:58	Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8d44d1…
06-09 14:49:22	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x9d69ea…
06-09 14:49:13	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xb4f651…
05-31 12:42:23	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	375	100¢	$375	0x411ac6…
05-31 12:41:53	Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xe1195a…
05-29 23:17:25	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xce75d1…
05-29 23:02:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xdc46b7…
05-29 12:36:27	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x6eb23d…
05-29 11:39:58	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x84cbde…