Capital-Aardvark — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

45.6%

Resolved

19,552

Trades

57,987

lifetime

Volume

$44.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-24

last 10-27 04:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 245 days

Categories

Other

99% 6% +$236

Crypto

1% 7% -$183

Politics

0% 0% -$60

Sports

0% 0% -$15

Tech

0% 0% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 816 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes		+1,000	$5	0¢	$1	-$4	09-24 21:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 5?	7	$488	700	500	+200	Yes	+$462	09-05 09:23
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 15?	12	$483	800	500	+300	No	+$767	09-15 07:10
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?	7	$468	500	500	+0	Yes	+$426	08-23 17:26
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 18?	6	$466	548	448	+100	Yes	+$421	08-18 07:16
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 1?	17	$445	647	447	+200	Yes	+$431	09-01 08:13
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 8?	17	$417	1,119	419	+700	Yes	+$407	09-08 07:33
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 30°C on September 7?	5	$413	421	421	+0	No	+$404	09-07 12:43
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on September 6?	24	$382	348	348	+0	Yes	+$279	09-06 11:57
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 18?	9	$356	304	304	+0	Yes	+$240	09-18 14:23
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on September 4?	22	$287	987	300	+687	Yes	+$238	09-04 12:53
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 12?	11	$275	443	243	+200	Yes	+$197	09-12 14:48
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 12?	7	$252	250	250	+0	Yes	+$246	09-12 08:07
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 13?	18	$228	233	233	+0	Yes	+$215	09-13 09:45
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 20?	15	$227	380	196	+184	Yes	+$144	08-20 13:30
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 18?	6	$211	646	200	+446	Yes	+$185	09-18 07:36
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 29?	10	$211	207	207	+0	Yes	+$183	08-29 13:05
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 15?	5	$209	200	200	+0	Yes	+$187	09-15 08:20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?	3	$208	200	200	+0	Yes	+$152	09-13 17:19
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 15?	26	$208	200	200	+0	Yes	+$192	09-15 10:16
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 14?	30	$207	1,200	200	+1,000	Yes	+$152	09-14 15:45
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?	9	$204	200	200	+0	Yes	+$176	09-06 14:55
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 30?	16	$198	474	188	+286	Yes	+$175	08-30 15:01
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 14?	8	$189	557	200	+357	Yes	+$171	09-14 08:35
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 16?	28	$181	882	200	+682	Yes	+$147	08-16 14:18
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 10?	14	$168	195	195	+0	Yes	+$166	08-10 06:50
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 14?	15	$164	205	155	+50	Yes	+$139	08-14 08:10
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 28?	4	$158	150	150	+0	Yes	+$139	08-28 07:48
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on September 17?	16	$158	150	150	+0	Yes	+$142	09-17 15:08
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 13?	7	$157	150	150	+0	Yes	+$141	09-13 03:04
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 29?	4	$155	151	151	+0	Yes	+$140	08-29 14:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x766882…
10-27 03:08:26	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x56ee5c…
10-27 02:57:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x082923…
10-27 01:58:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd8512a…
10-26 18:09:59	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or higher on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x105e7c…
10-26 17:28:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x457bc6…
10-26 15:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x4d826f…
10-26 15:07:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xaa6f40…
10-26 14:37:56	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 26?	No	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0xe27874…
10-26 14:37:54	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xd712c5…
10-26 14:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xbdcff4…
10-26 13:19:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x26213b…
10-26 13:04:38	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x83c146…
10-26 13:02:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xbadb16…
10-26 12:53:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4ea7d1…
10-26 11:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd8371e…
10-26 09:29:18	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x5bc55e…
10-26 07:59:59	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x3bbfa1…
10-26 07:43:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xf28e81…
10-26 07:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7d2de1…
10-26 07:07:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x3be2ba…
10-26 06:51:53	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x295a27…
10-26 06:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xa5b61d…
10-26 06:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4efa9a…
10-26 06:04:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x86d08b…
10-26 06:01:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa23752…
10-26 05:59:41	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	No	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x373bfe…
10-26 05:55:33	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc1b300…
10-26 05:47:11	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x73539f…
10-26 05:47:11	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x4aac9a…
10-26 05:32:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xbd2529…
10-26 05:27:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x4b6b43…
10-26 05:12:17	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xc19001…
10-26 04:49:45	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x345a6c…
10-26 04:38:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x062503…
10-26 04:30:20	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x28387e…
10-26 04:15:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x7455b9…
10-26 03:32:27	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xae6ffe…
10-26 02:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xb77a8c…
10-26 02:57:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe6dbea…
10-26 02:57:03	Will CF América win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0081c4…
10-26 02:48:39	Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x39b6f6…
10-26 02:42:36	Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xeeed50…
10-26 02:31:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on October 26?	Yes	BUY	74	0¢	$0	0x6162b8…
10-26 02:07:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x919e30…
10-26 02:07:56	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x82287b…
10-26 01:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5eb198…
10-26 00:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x8cf66c…
10-26 00:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 26?	Yes	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x357b08…
10-25 22:09:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x788900…
10-25 19:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xfb6be8…
10-25 19:04:35	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0xb30340…
10-25 19:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf9a46e…
10-25 19:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	69	0¢	$0	0xeeeefb…
10-25 19:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xdd71ce…
10-25 19:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd30867…
10-25 16:40:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd05328…
10-25 16:28:12	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x6f1228…
10-25 16:11:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd9e14c…
10-25 16:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xc69c1c…
10-25 16:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xbd456f…
10-25 15:54:24	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x748ca9…
10-25 15:52:18	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xb8c750…
10-25 15:39:54	Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x94d830…
10-25 15:38:45	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x8aeb60…
10-25 15:38:42	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xdf56c5…
10-25 15:29:33	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xfb91c3…
10-25 15:29:03	Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x79feaf…
10-25 15:27:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc6931b…
10-25 15:16:20	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xbc2b26…
10-25 15:12:15	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x581847…
10-25 14:53:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xbb0d2d…
10-25 14:51:47	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3daf81…
10-25 14:46:59	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 25?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x214c1c…
10-25 14:35:24	Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-25?	No	BUY	170	0¢	$0	0x599b89…
10-25 13:02:42	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 25?	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x9e67ad…
10-25 13:02:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xf88405…
10-25 12:57:14	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x3e075c…
10-25 12:54:59	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x697f70…
10-25 12:54:57	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x80a72c…
10-25 12:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	19	0¢	$0	0xea6704…
10-25 12:52:17	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x68da2b…
10-25 12:50:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x082a16…
10-25 12:46:23	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 25?	No	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xaa5cb5…
10-25 12:30:39	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0x0293c3…
10-25 12:08:56	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x21415a…
10-25 11:46:59	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 25?	No	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0x1fb1fd…
10-25 11:02:30	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xfae716…
10-25 11:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb5d768…
10-25 10:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0xde9a0b…
10-25 10:16:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0xf65fdb…
10-25 09:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xda77b0…
10-25 09:40:12	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	7	5¢	$0	0x99427a…
10-25 09:39:45	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 25?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0xc33e07…
10-25 09:31:21	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 25?	No	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x86ade6…
10-25 09:20:32	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on October 25?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xbeb2df…
10-25 09:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xbd17ec…
10-25 09:10:11	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x918358…
10-25 09:09:44	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf97101…
10-25 09:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xe7020a…