Vigilant-Demur — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

840

lifetime

Volume

$24.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$229

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 06-11 17:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

44% 0% $-1

Politics

32% — —

Sports

16% 0% $-0

Crypto

8% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	+174	$170	99¢	$173	+$4	06-04 16:41
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+55	$51	94¢	$52	+$0	06-01 13:09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+55	$4	6¢	$3	$-0	06-01 13:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	+174	$5	1¢	$1	$-4	06-04 16:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	54	$2.6K	5,060	80	+4,980	open	—	03-11 09:34
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	34	$1.3K	2,725	85	+2,640	open	—	03-04 04:27
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	32	$1.1K	2,170	30	+2,140	open	—	03-15 14:15
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	36	$1.1K	2,120	60	+2,060	open	—	03-18 03:08
GTA VI released before June 2026?	22	$994	1,670	110	+1,560	open	—	03-17 16:55
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	20	$831	1,660	0	+1,660	open	—	03-08 23:10
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	18	$759	1,140	260	+880	open	—	03-17 10:04
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	18	$621	845	245	+600	open	—	03-18 01:32
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$540	1,040	40	+1,000	open	—	03-02 04:42
netanyahu out by march 31 854	14	$518	890	50	+840	open	—	03-19 10:57
trump out as president by march 31	14	$513	1,090	70	+1,020	open	—	03-09 10:16
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$500	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-07 23:59
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	12	$497	1,120	140	+980	open	—	02-18 12:10
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	8	$486	650	110	+540	open	—	03-09 16:27
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	20	$431	790	30	+760	open	—	03-24 07:50
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	14	$428	670	130	+540	open	—	03-13 08:59
will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	6	$393	280	180	+100	open	—	03-19 00:01
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	12	$380	610	210	+400	open	—	03-17 02:25
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$364	800	80	+720	No	$-0	04-07 23:34
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$349	420	240	+180	open	—	03-15 08:28
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	16	$303	520	140	+380	open	—	03-22 21:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	32	$299	1,005	764	+241	open	—	04-12 05:31
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	19	$282	840	320	+520	No	$-0	04-08 11:40
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	10	$280	560	0	+560	open	—	02-19 02:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	10	$272	570	30	+540	open	—	03-04 00:53
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$238	530	70	+460	Yes	$-0	04-11 11:10
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$230	460	0	+460	open	—	03-07 10:00
will robert macintyre win the 2026 masters tournament	6	$223	520	80	+440	open	—	03-10 05:07
Iran leadership change by March 13?	4	$200	400	0	+400	open	—	03-13 07:42
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$200	200	200	+0	open	—	03-11 11:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 17:29:16	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	SELL	85	52¢	$44	0x8a8ab9…
06-11 17:29:07	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	Yes	BUY	85	57¢	$48	0x7e3fe0…
06-11 11:02:43	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0xde90cb…
06-11 11:02:42	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x0f2b55…
06-11 11:02:39	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x8820f5…
06-11 11:02:30	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xbdb116…
06-11 11:02:22	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	SELL	86	22¢	$19	0x429783…
06-11 11:02:06	will iran close its airspace by june 12 20260609184136050	Yes	BUY	86	24¢	$21	0x793a68…
06-04 16:42:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	33	2¢	$1	0x09d916…
06-04 16:41:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	3¢	$3	0xc6dd8b…
06-04 16:41:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0x1e156a…
06-04 16:41:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x7a96e2…
06-04 16:41:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0xb91ad1…
06-04 16:41:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0x094d95…
06-04 16:41:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xf93a6a…
06-03 23:54:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x5e335f…
06-03 23:53:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xbc65ac…
06-03 23:53:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	45	97¢	$44	0xc92ab9…
06-03 18:23:25	Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5	Over	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0xefa10b…
06-03 18:23:04	Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	61	7¢	$4	0xc3139f…
06-03 18:22:58	Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	58	94¢	$55	0xa7ff01…
06-02 21:43:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xa3549a…
06-02 21:43:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	44	98¢	$43	0x9e0632…
06-01 13:09:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	55	93¢	$51	0x873e71…
06-01 13:09:44	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0x560265…
05-11 22:29:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	3¢	$1	0xf31a00…
05-11 22:28:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$2	0x84bd94…
05-11 22:28:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	60	97¢	$58	0x622f6b…
05-11 04:02:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin	Alexei Popyrin	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x5e9c0c…
05-11 04:02:40	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin	Jannik Sinner	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x378b53…
05-09 18:01:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0x19e788…
05-09 18:01:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$1	0xc2e524…
05-09 18:01:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0xb9cefd…
05-09 13:40:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	70	3¢	$2	0xf9506e…
05-09 13:40:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xcb4558…
05-09 08:42:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	90	3¢	$2	0x1f9fe8…
05-09 08:42:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x433f5e…
04-14 13:33:25	atp alcaraz virtane 2026 04 14	Otto Virtanen	SELL	18	3¢	$0	0x3daf0b…
04-14 13:33:03	atp alcaraz virtane 2026 04 14	Otto Virtanen	BUY	112	3¢	$3	0xa6987a…
04-14 13:33:01	atp alcaraz virtane 2026 04 14	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	90	97¢	$88	0x270423…
04-12 19:47:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x09ec94…
04-12 19:47:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x5afe58…
04-12 19:35:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x478553…
04-12 19:22:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	2¢	$1	0x9ebfea…
04-12 19:22:53	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	2¢	$0	0xdb5f16…
04-12 19:22:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x3fcba8…
04-12 12:43:01	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0xe81b5c…
04-12 12:42:39	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	51	28¢	$14	0x3113ea…
04-12 12:42:37	will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x572b7c…
04-12 10:13:57	nba bkn tor 2026 04 12	Nets	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0xf564e6…
04-12 10:13:45	nba bkn tor 2026 04 12	Nets	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x07dcd0…
04-12 05:31:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	80	3¢	$2	0xd165b1…
04-12 05:31:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xf434cf…
04-12 05:31:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xfdcc9e…
04-11 16:09:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0x250aeb…
04-11 16:08:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x4e9f08…
04-11 11:10:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	70	5¢	$4	0x0ad702…
04-11 11:10:03	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	28	5¢	$1	0xece5de…
04-11 11:09:05	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xb928de…
04-11 11:08:57	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xa02218…
04-11 09:07:03	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xfba4fd…
04-11 09:07:01	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xf84be5…
04-11 02:35:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	90	3¢	$2	0x9097a8…
04-11 02:35:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0x8cc9f3…
04-11 02:35:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0x4a19e6…
04-10 19:52:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xde957e…
04-10 19:52:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x5b8e59…
04-10 17:10:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$3	0x27ee67…
04-10 17:09:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0xab0a84…
04-10 17:09:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x221042…
04-10 14:59:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x72f785…
04-10 14:59:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x68c2dc…
04-10 12:25:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x54ae7c…
04-10 12:25:37	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	40	36¢	$14	0x529aba…
04-09 21:25:53	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	90	3¢	$3	0x110a58…
04-09 21:25:47	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$1	0xf870c9…
04-09 21:25:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x2789bf…
04-09 20:56:15	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xbf3676…
04-09 12:09:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	60	2¢	$2	0xfba35a…
04-09 12:08:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$2	0x56ed41…
04-08 23:38:13	nba mem den 2026 04 08	Grizzlies	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xff144a…
04-08 23:37:59	nba mem den 2026 04 08	Grizzlies	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xcc1e8e…
04-08 20:50:09	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xc6420c…
04-08 20:49:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xf54a94…
04-08 16:05:05	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	70	4¢	$3	0xa9236d…
04-08 16:04:53	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x179c91…
04-08 16:04:45	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	57	4¢	$2	0xfa1af1…
04-08 11:40:49	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	90	3¢	$3	0x48d3db…
04-08 11:40:35	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0xad4393…
04-08 09:30:57	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0x428f69…
04-08 09:30:43	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	56	3¢	$2	0x74eba8…
04-08 09:30:41	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0x87a994…
04-08 05:04:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xe80b8f…
04-08 05:04:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf5f421…
04-07 23:34:17	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xec5307…
04-07 23:34:03	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$1	0x45f3ba…
04-07 23:33:49	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xd54776…
04-07 23:33:49	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x944879…
04-07 20:33:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x3a8098…
04-07 20:33:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	Yes	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x553761…