Ill-Informed-Plunger — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

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Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

441 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$4.67K lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 08-05 13:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

60% 1% -$167

Politics

22% 11% -$39

Tech

7% 0% -$7

Pop-Culture

6% 0% -$5

Sports

5% 0% $0

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-05).

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National Intelligence?	2	$168	100	100	+0	No	+$2	05-24 12:26
iran full airspace closure by august 15	15	$167	200	200	+0	No	-$3	07-28 22:14
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?	8	$159	200	100	+100	No	-$2	05-17 11:18
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$145	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-17 04:37
will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	6	$133	80	80	+0	No	-$2	07-28 14:00
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	6	$132	80	80	+0	No	-$1	07-27 10:19
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	5	$102	60	60	+0	No	$0	07-27 17:08
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on May 18?	2	$83	50	100	-50	No	-$21	05-18 11:34
another nato article 4 invocation by august 31 2026 20260726214511852	7	$81	80	80	+0	No	-$2	07-27 09:21
will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	6	$80	80	80	+0	No	-$2	07-28 16:59
will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	10	$80	82	82	+0	No	-$2	07-28 18:54
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?	3	$78	50	50	+0	Yes	$0	05-17 10:27
will nflx dip to 70 by july 27 2026	7	$76	80	80	+0	Yes	-$2	07-27 04:56
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 18?	4	$72	54	104	-50	Up	-$32	05-18 11:48
will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	5	$70	49	49	+0	No	$0	07-27 13:33
Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	4	$69	40	40	+0	No	-$1	07-28 07:37
Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?	3	$69	40	40	+0	No	-$1	07-27 10:58
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	3	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 22:16
will rigged be in the headlines this week 20260724154704330	3	$69	40	40	+0	No	-$1	07-27 19:32
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 300m and 310m?	3	$67	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-27 13:17
will ewy reach 168 by july 27 2026	3	$67	40	40	+0	No	+$0	07-28 04:31
Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	3	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 09:43
Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	3	$67	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 04:53
will rklb dip to 64 by july 27 2026	3	$66	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	07-27 16:30
Will NRG Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?	3	$65	40	40	+0	No	$0	07-26 22:04
will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	3	$65	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-28 11:15
Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	6	$65	39	39	+0	Yes	-$2	07-28 00:53
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?	3	$64	40	40	+0	Yes	-$3	07-26 00:06
will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420401	3	$63	40	40	+0	No	-$2	07-28 07:44
Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?	3	$63	40	40	+0	open	—	07-28 08:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 13:45:05	Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio 92%-94%?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xeb00e2…
07-30 17:56:38	will eli lilly lly q2 zepbound sales be above 4pt5b 20260725020159990	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0x826a53…
07-30 17:56:35	will eli lilly lly q2 zepbound sales be above 4pt5b 20260725020159990	Yes	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xbc3e04…
07-29 02:06:48	Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xef132b…
07-29 02:06:32	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of July 27 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0xd5e4f9…
07-29 02:06:03	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xcb330c…
07-29 02:05:56	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	No	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xeb2074…
07-29 02:05:48	Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" during cabinet meeting?	No	SELL	21	74¢	$15	0xb65214…
07-29 01:24:03	Will Brennan O'Neill win the 2026 PLL MVP award?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8ce3ea…
07-28 22:33:14	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	Yes	SELL	19	18¢	$3	0xab25b3…
07-28 22:33:10	Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?	Yes	BUY	19	18¢	$3	0x9facf2…
07-28 22:19:19	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	40	14¢	$5	0x9e3096…
07-28 22:19:16	Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb9f96d…
07-28 22:16:29	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	40	86¢	$34	0xda4c83…
07-28 22:16:26	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xf1a8ad…
07-28 22:14:53	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x704520…
07-28 22:14:52	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xfeacec…
07-28 22:04:43	will xauusd reach 4150 by july 27 2026	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0xb803cf…
07-28 22:04:40	will xauusd reach 4150 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xeef705…
07-28 22:01:47	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x601919…
07-28 22:01:44	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1bfb76…
07-28 21:51:40	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 530m and 550m by August 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x574916…
07-28 21:51:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x9c2cbb…
07-28 21:51:31	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x2d1a1e…
07-28 20:15:17	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xa8463e…
07-28 20:15:13	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0xc6ee91…
07-28 19:46:40	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xe669b9…
07-28 19:46:38	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x3ce2d9…
07-28 18:54:04	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x7b7592…
07-28 18:54:01	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x728223…
07-28 17:20:08	Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x0258d7…
07-28 17:20:07	Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcaf1cd…
07-28 16:59:59	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	Yes	SELL	40	13¢	$5	0xa4ffd8…
07-28 16:59:55	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x552e5a…
07-28 16:20:13	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0xe93ef5…
07-28 16:20:10	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x4cf71d…
07-28 16:06:04	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x47a33e…
07-28 16:05:58	Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xf1f86b…
07-28 15:27:05	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x0aaaa5…
07-28 15:27:01	will rklb dip to 54 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x5988a3…
07-28 15:18:13	will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x2571a0…
07-28 15:18:10	will spy dip to 720 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0dc7fe…
07-28 15:07:19	Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 AL Central title?	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0xcb794f…
07-28 14:46:52	Will Sal Stewart lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x2aa2c7…
07-28 14:46:46	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	8	17¢	$1	0x8a2a83…
07-28 14:46:44	Will Sal Stewart lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xbbac62…
07-28 14:46:38	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	32	18¢	$6	0x518ec4…
07-28 14:46:37	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0xb475cc…
07-28 14:46:35	Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xb337ed…
07-28 14:21:32	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	2	84¢	$1	0xf3441d…
07-28 14:21:29	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x7a78c8…
07-28 14:00:10	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x509436…
07-28 14:00:05	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x337a25…
07-28 13:40:44	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x0317d3…
07-28 13:38:38	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	No	SELL	40	84¢	$34	0x6f3644…
07-28 13:38:01	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	21	85¢	$18	0x674f2c…
07-28 13:38:01	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	18	85¢	$15	0x468574…
07-28 13:37:59	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x5d4df6…
07-28 13:36:11	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0xd2f6d9…
07-28 13:36:04	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	SELL	24	8¢	$2	0x3f3475…
07-28 13:36:02	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x110eae…
07-28 13:36:01	Will Junior Caminero lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?	Yes	BUY	4	8¢	$0	0x56d798…
07-28 13:33:23	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	23	7¢	$2	0xdeb1c1…
07-28 13:33:20	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xf1def6…
07-28 13:33:08	will rklb reach 76 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	21	10¢	$2	0xa4bf7c…
07-28 13:33:04	will rklb reach 76 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x5d335c…
07-28 13:02:59	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	13	76¢	$10	0x78d6d8…
07-28 13:02:35	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	14	75¢	$10	0x562a51…
07-28 13:02:04	will russia target kyiv by august 31 2026 20260727233830632	No	SELL	26	11¢	$3	0x42b9ef…
07-28 13:01:59	will russia target kyiv by august 31 2026 20260727233830632	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x5db14f…
07-28 13:01:50	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	SELL	13	75¢	$10	0x012a23…
07-28 12:52:14	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x51c80b…
07-28 12:52:11	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x63e83e…
07-28 12:43:02	Will Jim Stagnitta win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0xc46795…
07-28 12:42:56	Will Jim Stagnitta win the 2026 PLL Coach of the Year?	Yes	BUY	9	14¢	$1	0xb4b00c…
07-28 12:30:23	will trump say trump derangement syndrome during cabinet meeting 20260727172357447	No	SELL	19	76¢	$15	0x8d68ec…
07-28 12:30:20	will trump say trump derangement syndrome during cabinet meeting 20260727172357447	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xad405a…
07-28 11:36:59	will leavitt say illegal or illegals during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550017	Yes	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x2fc206…
07-28 11:32:40	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xba56f4…
07-28 11:32:37	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xc606ab…
07-28 11:15:08	will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	No	SELL	40	79¢	$32	0x3be310…
07-28 10:47:53	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xe461f5…
07-28 10:47:49	iran full airspace closure by august 15	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xd2f553…
07-28 10:36:59	will leavitt say madness during the next white house press briefing 20260723172550021	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xed9f5e…
07-28 09:43:52	Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0xaef166…
07-28 08:32:25	Will Buffalo Bills finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most offensive touchdowns?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x1813a4…
07-28 08:20:00	Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?	No	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x37b18f…
07-28 07:56:16	Will Max Holloway fight Justin Gaethje next?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc0108e…
07-28 07:44:03	will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420401	Yes	SELL	40	77¢	$31	0x9d346d…
07-28 07:40:22	will trump say nazi or hitler during cabinet meeting 20260727172357453	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xf77091…
07-28 07:37:01	Will Clayton McCullough win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	No	SELL	25	84¢	$21	0x2c6221…
07-28 07:35:43	will trump say six seven during cabinet meeting 20260727172357452	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xa9c0e6…
07-28 07:16:48	will leavitt say president 50 times during the next white house press briefing 20260723172420401	Yes	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xb471ab…
07-28 07:11:27	will spy dip to 735 by july 27 2026	Yes	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0xcd3d41…
07-28 07:11:25	will spy dip to 735 by july 27 2026	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x156f44…
07-28 06:39:01	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 26 2026 20260724221849657	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x185561…
07-28 06:38:58	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 26 2026 20260724221849657	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x7f22fe…
07-28 05:01:24	will ewy reach 169 by july 27 2026	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0xe1e157…
07-28 05:01:18	will ewy reach 169 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x3cf805…
07-28 04:53:01	Will Puka Nacua finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most receiving yards?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0xd00de7…