Wobbly-Pendulum — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$16

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

Trades

144

lifetime

Volume

$378

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 07-15 08:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

77% 40% -$24

Sports

18% 30% +$25

Politics

4% 50% +$15

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-15).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+31	$3	3¢	$1	-$2	05-17 16:33
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+16	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	05-17 16:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	3	$16	19	14	+5	Down	+$4	05-16 22:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	2	$16	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	05-16 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	2	$16	42	42	+0	Down	+$6	05-16 20:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	2	$15	16	16	+0	Up	+$5	05-16 21:33
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$14	49	49	+0	No	+$5	07-15 08:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$12	9	9	+0	Down	+$2	05-16 22:52
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$12	49	49	+0	No	+$1	07-11 22:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$11	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	05-16 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	-$10	05-16 16:35
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$8	49	0	+49	No	-$8	05-07 18:40
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$8	49	0	+49	Yes	+$41	05-07 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$8	25	25	+0	Up	+$6	05-17 17:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	2	$6	10	0	+10	Down	-$4	05-16 23:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$6	58	0	+58	Up	-$6	05-16 23:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$5	128	0	+128	Down	-$5	05-16 22:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	1	$5	31	0	+31	Down	-$5	05-16 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$5	83	0	+83	Up	-$5	05-16 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Up	+$9	05-16 21:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	Up	+$12	05-16 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	1	$5	56	0	+56	Down	-$5	05-16 17:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Down	-$5	05-16 22:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Down	-$5	05-16 22:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Down	-$5	05-16 22:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	1	$5	42	0	+42	Up	-$5	05-16 21:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	1	$5	45	0	+45	Up	-$5	05-16 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	1	$5	29	0	+29	Down	-$5	05-16 17:27
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	05-17 16:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	Down	+$9	05-16 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$5	32	0	+32	Down	-$5	05-16 19:09
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	1	$5	23	0	+23	Yes	+$18	05-17 16:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-15 08:36:31	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	49	19¢	$9	0x409662…
07-11 22:23:05	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	49	14¢	$7	0xf1e8cd…
06-30 20:08:58	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$1	0x0a113e…
06-30 20:05:52	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	59	3¢	$2	0xdd9c71…
06-30 20:03:04	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x756a3a…
06-30 20:01:59	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	91	2¢	$1	0x81c09b…
06-26 23:45:35	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0xb4d34e…
06-08 13:24:58	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xf50855…
05-30 15:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x77d24b…
05-30 14:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf06fb6…
05-30 14:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3179b0…
05-30 14:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0fe5ad…
05-30 14:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x87dc4b…
05-30 14:35:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xb9a46a…
05-30 14:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x7ff163…
05-30 14:12:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x55f05a…
05-30 13:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4ab9e9…
05-19 07:40:14	Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x9504c2…
05-19 07:37:59	Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xf61c38…
05-19 07:37:03	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x76d012…
05-19 07:36:55	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x99f90d…
05-19 07:36:11	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xe8787b…
05-19 07:35:24	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x7a4a72…
05-19 07:34:28	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x68a0e1…
05-19 07:32:18	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x104b11…
05-19 07:31:27	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xe723fa…
05-19 07:30:58	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x67e075…
05-17 22:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x91f367…
05-17 22:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x6216ef…
05-17 22:40:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa9e5fe…
05-17 22:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xe74565…
05-17 22:31:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x532293…
05-17 22:31:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd0b376…
05-17 22:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x4c803a…
05-17 22:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xcead9b…
05-17 22:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x8c83f1…
05-17 21:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb998ed…
05-17 21:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xbf5803…
05-17 21:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x563c51…
05-17 21:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x038afd…
05-17 21:10:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1f63a1…
05-17 21:01:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xf58ff9…
05-17 21:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xedc34a…
05-17 20:55:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xc7cc8d…
05-17 20:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x5b38bb…
05-17 20:51:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x1103bd…
05-17 20:48:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xca7303…
05-17 20:47:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x15ded4…
05-17 20:35:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x27f395…
05-17 20:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x3c48a3…
05-17 20:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xaa6752…
05-17 20:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x3f07bd…
05-17 20:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x02bf26…
05-17 19:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x94875a…
05-17 19:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x8b1237…
05-17 19:45:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9619ea…
05-17 19:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x848054…
05-17 19:07:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	4	52¢	$2	0x6f3740…
05-17 19:06:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc233e5…
05-17 19:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1bd946…
05-17 19:01:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4659d6…
05-17 18:26:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x5be83a…
05-17 18:07:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	41¢	$1	0xd740b6…
05-17 18:06:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd3440a…
05-17 18:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x3bb29b…
05-17 17:56:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x306f50…
05-17 17:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x1de837…
05-17 17:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	25	26¢	$6	0x706bdf…
05-17 17:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x57a2a2…
05-17 17:08:54	Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x90e159…
05-17 17:05:01	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xe894e8…
05-17 16:57:59	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xd3a7d2…
05-17 16:33:26	Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xaa7a2a…
05-17 16:33:12	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0x678ede…
05-17 16:32:51	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x9459ca…
05-16 23:33:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x302ff2…
05-16 23:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xda88f8…
05-16 23:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x07afdb…
05-16 23:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb8a838…
05-16 23:18:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xfaea57…
05-16 23:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xf7064b…
05-16 22:52:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	SELL	9	83¢	$7	0xe64986…
05-16 22:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x7a53cd…
05-16 22:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x648a45…
05-16 22:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1491ae…
05-16 22:36:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x590d76…
05-16 22:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcf365f…
05-16 22:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	SELL	14	77¢	$10	0x2d82ba…
05-16 22:32:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x084c2b…
05-16 22:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xcb4888…
05-16 22:09:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0xf56882…
05-16 21:57:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x769c77…
05-16 21:42:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x2f0873…
05-16 21:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	SELL	16	63¢	$10	0xdbcc80…
05-16 21:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x4d142f…
05-16 21:26:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x5b01c1…
05-16 21:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x229ac0…
05-16 21:21:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xb26ffa…
05-16 21:15:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x08b9ac…
05-16 21:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x09a840…