Threadbare-Ocelot — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

292

Trades

292

lifetime

Volume

$3.55K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-01 17:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 233 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-14 09:49
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 05:34
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:18
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-12 10:08
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:49
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 08:13
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-10 08:42
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C or higher on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 06:48
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-08 15:09
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 06:13
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 01:36
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 16:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 06:21
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 28°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 01:45
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 15:21
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-06 04:57
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-05 11:28
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:35
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-03 12:32
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 15:35
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 04:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:21
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:55
highest temperature in seoul on april 6 2026 14c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-06 09:45
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 21c	1	$22	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-05 08:55
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 3 2026 24c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 15:10
highest temperature in denver on april 2 2026 70 71f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 02:30
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 2 2026 27c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 14:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 17:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x40bca7…
10-31 15:53:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf44f32…
10-30 14:52:07	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa17c64…
10-29 17:50:37	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x15a187…
10-29 09:25:29	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on October 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x717d42…
10-28 07:52:40	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x41bfe5…
10-27 09:17:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x48ea89…
10-26 09:31:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf36376…
10-24 11:47:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2da319…
10-22 10:25:45	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc980e2…
10-20 07:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbfae3a…
10-19 09:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf2cd78…
10-18 10:12:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab20d9…
10-17 15:26:42	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x09b0b8…
10-16 10:02:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9f0750…
10-15 09:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40897d…
10-14 09:43:38	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x00071a…
10-13 09:23:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x124af3…
10-12 09:31:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0801f0…
10-11 09:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21be02…
10-08 12:26:51	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x358205…
10-07 15:28:23	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcdd0a3…
10-06 15:03:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3f68ae…
10-05 06:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or below on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x36db2b…
10-03 08:35:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd2cf34…
10-02 13:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x57d479…
10-01 08:31:12	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x79ca4c…
09-30 02:41:33	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C or below on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc80451…
09-28 09:56:39	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x57ff04…
09-27 08:55:56	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x50deab…
09-25 16:16:06	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3240ce…
09-24 08:41:50	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x27b4f4…
09-23 08:33:10	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3a6c5f…
09-22 08:33:28	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x608f3c…
09-21 09:32:12	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0425ca…
09-20 05:53:52	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1b5784…
09-19 08:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x218286…
09-18 07:42:34	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe59d2e…
09-17 04:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8ddf79…
09-16 08:54:18	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4fd69e…
09-15 10:19:00	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb9a063…
09-14 09:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f69e9…
09-13 02:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C or below on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb2a7ed…
09-11 07:25:03	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11972c…
09-10 08:40:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x27a8a3…
09-09 12:22:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xfb4c1a…
09-08 15:48:07	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x47b301…
09-08 06:13:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa8aa2b…
09-07 08:44:21	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc66aee…
09-06 16:02:33	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcd76de…
09-06 10:36:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x493899…
09-05 01:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xacfd3c…
09-03 17:01:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x550eec…
09-02 07:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x901dab…
08-30 09:19:40	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x289533…
08-29 09:42:13	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x179cf5…
08-28 08:49:39	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc38cfe…
08-27 09:01:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f92de…
08-26 08:40:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on August 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x44948e…
08-25 09:41:01	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x319802…
08-24 13:13:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa2706a…
08-23 15:04:39	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd7cf6f…
08-22 09:03:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4af73a…
08-21 07:47:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbaee79…
08-20 09:02:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x336a44…
08-18 08:29:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7e639c…
08-17 08:18:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x94d27e…
08-16 14:22:24	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x001a65…
08-15 10:03:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa0f10d…
08-14 06:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc6817f…
08-13 08:56:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4cb374…
08-12 08:57:43	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x992022…
08-11 07:00:51	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x04f7da…
08-10 08:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7407c0…
08-09 06:13:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf5bf2e…
08-08 07:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7898fb…
08-07 07:51:03	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 7?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x419b0d…
08-06 06:50:29	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbff816…
08-05 08:02:09	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7456af…
08-04 08:24:17	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcd6b69…
08-03 07:42:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1a3fdf…
08-02 06:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3951fc…
08-01 07:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19b752…
07-31 13:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8eee46…
07-30 07:02:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x40dcec…
07-29 07:13:26	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xde0705…
07-28 07:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x280507…
07-27 08:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7aba0d…
07-26 07:24:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdb744a…
07-25 08:20:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc61c26…
07-24 13:32:42	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6bc61e…
07-23 08:16:36	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0822f…
07-22 02:08:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a2122…
07-21 09:19:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa549f1…
07-21 00:20:34	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x50b47b…
07-20 08:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7d3193…
07-18 23:25:58	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd10486…
07-18 00:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc79ef6…
07-17 07:25:33	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6a418b…
07-15 22:14:02	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x74d416…