Happy-Go-Lucky-Letter — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$22

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

37.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

14 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$105

$105 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$21

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-09 09:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 55% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	No		-50	$-9	24¢	$-12	$-3	05-09 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up		+10	$3	92¢	$9	+$6	05-09 09:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$22	0	30	-30	Down	$-8	05-09 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	1	$20	0	20	-20	Up	$-0	05-08 11:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$18	0	50	-50	Up	+$18	05-07 05:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$9	0	10	-10	Down	$-1	05-07 10:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	1	$9	0	50	-50	open	—	05-09 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$8	0	30	-30	Up	+$8	05-07 06:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	1	$7	0	40	-40	Up	+$7	05-08 04:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$6	0	10	-10	Up	$-4	05-08 08:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	2	$2	0	30	-30	Down	+$2	05-09 03:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	1	$1	10	0	+10	Up	$-1	05-09 06:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	1	$0	0	10	-10	Down	+$0	05-08 10:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$0	0	10	-10	Up	+$0	05-08 03:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 09:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x5d8f5d…
05-09 08:04:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?	No	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x66005a…
05-09 06:29:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x0571a0…
05-09 03:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x09fbaa…
05-09 03:39:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	15	6¢	$1	0xa70a8a…
05-09 03:24:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xd1d8b5…
05-08 11:04:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x891a07…
05-08 10:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xbc7531…
05-08 08:54:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xe87b5a…
05-08 04:29:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x464c79…
05-08 03:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xdd91b6…
05-07 10:10:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x49f31c…
05-07 06:43:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	30	26¢	$8	0xef577b…
05-07 05:44:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	50	37¢	$18	0x277ec1…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	13	$4.72K	190	05-09 09:54
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	11	$7.05K	94	05-09 09:50
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	10	$1.83K	147	05-09 09:50
Mad-Plot 0x2709…20f5	10	$1.09K	107	05-09 09:50
Aromatic-Freedom 0xc547…7b30	10	$1.05K	15	05-09 09:50
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	10	$890	74	05-09 09:50
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	9	$1.82K	22	05-09 09:50
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	8	$715	11	05-09 09:50