Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$154

Unrealized P&L

+$657

Hit rate

97.0%

Resolved

557

Trades

2,048

lifetime

Volume

$467.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$228

Open exposure

$12.9K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 23:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Crypto

72% 95% +$372

Other

21% 92% -$496

Politics

7% 86% -$32

Tech

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+7,629	$7,282	96¢	$7.3K	+$39	10-23 00:59
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+5,556	$4,892	99¢	$5.5K	+$617	10-26 08:10
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	+106	$100	96¢	$101	+$1	10-26 23:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President before 2027?	14	$12.3K	10,236	2,607	+7,629	open	—	10-23 00:59
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	13	$8.4K	4,927	3,552	+1,375	Yes	+$67	01-28 21:55
no change in bank of japans interest rates after january 2026 meeting	8	$7.4K	5,500	1,975	+3,525	Yes	+$49	01-22 12:25
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	13	$6.8K	3,517	3,517	+0	No	+$118	03-27 08:45
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by march 31	10	$5.8K	2,925	2,925	+0	No	+$23	03-21 11:14
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	16	$5.1K	5,656	100	+5,556	open	—	10-26 08:10
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 15	18	$5.1K	4,115	1,029	+3,086	No	+$73	03-15 22:41
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 11:00 UTC	8	$4.6K	2,581	2,561	+20	Up	+$524	02-14 11:15
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	8	$3.8K	3,000	903	+2,096	No	+$61	03-01 23:38
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 1	7	$3.8K	1,934	1,934	+0	Yes	+$62	02-02 08:35
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	8	$3.8K	3,848	0	+3,848	No	+$88	03-20 23:02
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	15	$3.6K	1,874	1,874	+0	No	+$59	02-28 04:48
gc hit 6000 high jan 2026	13	$3.6K	1,809	1,809	+0	No	+$51	01-30 20:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 16:30 UTC	1	$3.3K	3,363	0	+3,363	Up	+$34	02-14 16:43
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 16:00 UTC	2	$3.2K	3,330	0	+3,330	Down	+$89	02-14 16:15
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 15:30 UTC	1	$3.2K	3,208	0	+3,208	Down	+$32	02-14 15:44
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by february 8	14	$3.1K	1,593	1,593	+0	No	+$28	02-08 05:48
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 15:45 UTC	1	$3.1K	3,148	0	+3,148	Up	+$31	02-14 15:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 15:00 UTC	1	$3.1K	3,160	0	+3,160	Down	+$62	02-14 15:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 14:30 UTC	1	$3.1K	3,099	0	+3,099	Up	+$31	02-14 14:44
ethereum up or down february 16 6am et	3	$3.0K	1,527	1,526	+0	Down	+$14	02-16 12:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 10:00 UTC	3	$3.0K	3,050	21	+3,029	Down	+$13	02-09 10:14
will any of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	8	$3.0K	1,496	1,496	+0	No	+$16	02-01 12:38
XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 13:45 UTC	1	$3.0K	3,023	0	+3,023	Up	+$53	02-14 14:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 22:00 UTC	2	$2.9K	3,121	0	+3,121	Up	+$187	02-09 22:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 13:30 UTC	1	$2.9K	2,969	0	+2,969	Up	+$59	02-14 13:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 13:15 UTC	2	$2.9K	2,910	0	+2,910	Down	+$31	02-14 13:28
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 13:00 UTC	1	$2.8K	2,879	0	+2,879	Up	+$47	02-14 13:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-29 09:00 UTC	1	$2.8K	2,860	0	+2,860	Down	+$38	01-29 09:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-14 12:45 UTC	1	$2.8K	2,832	0	+2,832	Down	+$30	02-14 12:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:01:27	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	77	77¢	$59	0xb13d28…
10-27 23:01:00	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x3071c0…
10-26 23:56:12	NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x32cb98…
10-26 23:52:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$100	0xf1a8be…
10-26 23:50:33	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	433	83¢	$359	0xb44c14…
10-26 08:11:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	124	79¢	$98	0xb14e69…
10-26 08:10:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0xcd7216…
10-26 00:48:18	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0x8d497e…
10-26 00:46:39	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	122	83¢	$101	0xfcfbfe…
10-24 12:54:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	62	85¢	$53	0x9d29f0…
10-23 01:31:42	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	SELL	80	67¢	$54	0x4f92a7…
10-23 00:59:05	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,040	96¢	$1,000	0x499297…
10-23 00:52:29	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	251	85¢	$213	0x64aa4b…
10-23 00:51:47	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	SELL	260	82¢	$213	0x001412…
10-22 00:40:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	103	95¢	$98	0x2b6101…
10-22 00:40:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	326	92¢	$300	0x660e5b…
10-22 00:39:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x35bcd2…
10-22 00:38:48	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	524	95¢	$500	0x48d91c…
10-22 00:34:20	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x3d6572…
10-22 00:34:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x3f78fe…
10-22 00:31:29	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0xdab294…
10-22 00:30:54	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1,572	95¢	$1,500	0x4700de…
10-21 00:34:18	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	3,137	95¢	$2,996	0x270d7c…
10-19 23:36:45	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	542	92¢	$499	0xf9f057…
10-19 08:12:18	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	555	75¢	$416	0x1c5507…
10-19 08:09:26	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	462	90¢	$416	0xdb5fab…
10-17 23:29:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	575	91¢	$523	0x1c04ff…
10-15 05:17:52	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x20624b…
10-15 04:47:17	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0x22bfee…
10-15 04:42:56	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	80	74¢	$59	0xe6e78d…
10-15 00:13:41	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	94	56¢	$53	0x73fc94…
10-15 00:13:07	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	219	37¢	$80	0x5e6653…
10-15 00:10:44	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	139	96¢	$134	0x56fa02…
10-14 06:57:20	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	240	73¢	$176	0x66627a…
10-14 06:56:46	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	183	96¢	$176	0xe5e878…
10-14 00:59:00	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	2,083	96¢	$2,001	0x9645ad…
10-13 00:26:18	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	533	96¢	$513	0xda54ec…
10-13 00:05:29	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	109	76¢	$82	0x84c61a…
10-13 00:05:20	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	141	71¢	$100	0x929281…
10-11 14:21:15	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	1,041	96¢	$999	0xe13adc…
10-03 15:58:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x5ed843…
10-03 15:44:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x5dcb06…
10-03 07:59:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,322	90¢	$1,190	0xac17f2…
10-03 07:58:48	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,245	96¢	$1,199	0xf3e473…
10-01 04:38:24	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	163	89¢	$145	0x503a37…
10-01 04:38:08	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	162	89¢	$144	0xef2d56…
09-28 02:52:36	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	238	86¢	$205	0x01bf28…
09-28 00:18:54	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,084	86¢	$932	0x295b1a…
09-28 00:18:29	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	SELL	936	100¢	$932	0x51205d…
09-27 13:26:27	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	85¢	$90	0x302153…
09-27 13:26:02	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.0% at the end of 2027?	No	SELL	110	83¢	$91	0x061e23…
09-25 14:37:44	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	84¢	$11	0xa782ca…
09-25 14:37:00	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤2.5% at the end of 2027?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xcbf555…
09-25 14:33:17	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	BUY	405	99¢	$400	0xfaf145…
09-25 14:32:45	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xb6741e…
09-25 14:32:29	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	404	97¢	$393	0x34e1e3…
09-25 01:40:36	Russia military action against an EU country by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0xe1e7cd…
09-25 01:39:50	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.25% at the end of 2027?	No	SELL	112	88¢	$99	0xc17189…
09-25 01:30:21	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	231	85¢	$197	0xfd2709…
09-25 01:30:00	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	213	92¢	$196	0x38df20…
09-25 01:25:17	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	469	85¢	$399	0x72e8c0…
09-25 01:17:36	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	105	85¢	$89	0xa15b43…
09-25 01:14:17	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤2.5% at the end of 2027?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x24e4da…
09-25 01:13:12	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.25% at the end of 2027?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x885303…
09-25 01:12:02	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 5.0% at the end of 2027?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xfcdb27…
09-24 04:03:11	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0xc5affd…
09-23 04:56:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	160	95¢	$152	0x0e2cfc…
09-23 04:31:07	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x9a22f0…
09-23 04:09:11	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x4d4f8f…
09-23 04:09:11	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x353d5a…
09-23 04:09:10	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xad1604…
09-23 04:09:10	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0x7b09dc…
09-23 04:09:10	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x553745…
09-23 04:09:08	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xf50977…
09-23 04:09:08	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x5eb27a…
09-23 04:05:49	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x4747b2…
09-23 04:03:16	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x226520…
09-23 04:03:14	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x1497a5…
09-23 04:03:13	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xd2b4ba…
09-23 04:03:13	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x77391f…
09-23 04:03:13	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x6884d3…
09-23 04:03:11	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7d4def…
09-23 04:03:04	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x54dd72…
09-23 04:02:10	XRP Up or Down - September 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe22f6c…
09-23 04:00:34	Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0xe36c4b…
09-23 00:14:07	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	843	95¢	$801	0x1e0224…
09-22 09:18:03	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	253	79¢	$200	0xb1a9ef…
09-22 09:03:24	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	242	95¢	$230	0x782a56…
09-21 12:21:08	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x78aced…
09-21 12:20:54	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x43a7e4…
09-21 12:14:17	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xe0f90b…
09-21 12:13:54	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x212dd3…
09-19 16:55:08	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	213	94¢	$200	0xcb6d3a…
09-19 14:04:15	russia military action against eu country by december 31 2026	No	BUY	253	84¢	$213	0xfef338…
09-19 11:46:14	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	BUY	311	96¢	$300	0x7bbe94…
09-19 11:35:05	russia military action against eu country by september 30 2026	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x25a13c…
09-19 11:34:02	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	412	97¢	$400	0x18d51e…
03-27 08:45:17	US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	SELL	2,359	99¢	$2,339	0x0a9b29…
03-27 08:44:59	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 29	No	SELL	977	78¢	$761	0x902850…
03-24 09:24:11	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?	No	SELL	214	1¢	$1	0x4cfe4b…