Leading-Yang — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.1%

Resolved

Trades

257

lifetime

Volume

$7.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-24 12:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

59% 43% +$20

Other

29% — —

Sports

7% — —

Tech

4% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	1	$500	540	0	+540	open	—	03-24 14:13
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$456	311	159	+152	open	—	03-01 16:52
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	4	$334	198	198	+0	open	—	01-26 06:56
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	5	$326	280	70	+210	open	—	01-26 07:05
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	3	$313	166	166	+0	open	—	03-19 11:01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	2	$250	263	0	+263	open	—	04-13 11:49
will trump talk to kim jong un in january	2	$250	255	0	+255	open	—	01-22 09:13
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	2	$205	105	105	+0	open	—	03-25 03:33
israel x syria security agreement by january 31	2	$200	207	0	+207	open	—	01-23 09:15
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	04-13 11:46
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?	4	$188	161	40	+121	Yes	+$9	03-03 08:37
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	4	$187	146	73	+73	open	—	04-15 18:07
iran strike on israel by january 15	2	$180	196	0	+196	open	—	01-14 10:44
will zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the world economic forum	1	$150	156	0	+156	open	—	01-22 08:23
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?	2	$150	166	0	+166	Yes	+$16	03-01 16:56
will trump talk to satya nadella in january	1	$150	152	0	+152	open	—	01-22 08:34
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	2	$144	121	51	+70	open	—	06-23 15:57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by January 31?	2	$140	143	0	+143	open	—	01-28 05:34
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$123	102	102	+0	open	—	02-25 12:28
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	5	$121	105	105	+0	open	—	03-18 08:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$115	153	0	+153	open	—	06-15 12:57
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	3	$104	69	53	+16	open	—	01-26 06:51
trump out as president by march 31	1	$100	103	0	+103	open	—	01-21 08:26
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	1	$100	104	0	+104	open	—	04-02 20:28
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	1	$100	114	0	+114	open	—	06-15 18:29
another us strike on venezuela by january 10	1	$100	102	0	+102	open	—	01-07 06:43
will khamenei leave iran by friday	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	01-06 08:25
US civil war before 2027?	1	$99	110	0	+110	open	—	01-22 11:17
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	3	$98	161	0	+161	open	—	01-26 06:54
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$92	100	0	+100	open	—	05-27 06:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-24 12:56:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa9e1d5…
07-21 10:54:22	will bitcoin dip to 65k in july 2026 from july 20	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x7d66d2…
07-21 10:54:15	will bitcoin dip to 62pt5k in july 2026 from july 14	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xd03af9…
07-21 10:53:22	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x809c63…
07-21 10:45:16	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0xaeef00…
07-15 10:31:32	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x0a168d…
07-14 09:24:11	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	France	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xead751…
07-10 11:25:52	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xb4afea…
07-09 16:43:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x5242e4…
07-09 16:43:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9ef381…
07-09 16:20:52	will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x53cfed…
07-09 16:08:14	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x706bfb…
07-09 16:08:10	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x88455a…
07-09 16:07:46	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x31effc…
07-09 16:06:05	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xfc0392…
07-09 16:00:47	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x2e582e…
07-09 15:59:29	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	France	BUY	39	78¢	$30	0xd85518…
07-08 05:41:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x6545f6…
07-08 03:16:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x07266a…
07-08 03:16:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xaeadcc…
07-07 12:47:22	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 penalty shootout	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xdaf7a2…
07-07 12:47:07	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 extra time	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x25ec39…
07-07 12:46:50	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 spread home 1pt5	Argentina	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x91817a…
07-07 12:43:37	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	93	86¢	$80	0x1e0b0a…
07-03 20:29:47	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xdd0faf…
07-03 20:29:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x92f50d…
07-03 19:41:37	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xbb43b4…
07-03 19:41:08	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7d13e3…
07-03 19:40:43	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xe40c6d…
07-03 19:23:43	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x12a8d7…
07-03 19:23:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x896cca…
07-03 19:23:35	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0e1589…
07-03 19:13:50	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x82ceb1…
07-03 19:08:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x6b12db…
07-01 14:33:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x91909d…
06-30 03:35:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	54	0¢	$0	0x0016a9…
06-23 16:00:46	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	0¢	$0	0x77793f…
06-23 15:57:40	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x64f10a…
06-23 15:34:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x95f877…
06-23 15:33:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x8dac1f…
06-23 15:17:28	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x73f2a6…
06-23 15:09:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x2f7ea5…
06-23 15:08:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0xa0cef1…
06-23 15:07:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x3193d6…
06-23 15:06:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x7e96b2…
06-17 06:28:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x2ffbab…
06-17 06:26:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xebb1e5…
06-15 18:29:42	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x388e1a…
06-15 18:27:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x661a2b…
06-15 18:27:36	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xedfacc…
06-15 18:19:13	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	73¢	$5	0x7faf69…
06-15 17:59:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xa5788e…
06-15 17:59:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x2a61a8…
06-15 12:57:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xfd13b6…
06-15 12:55:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	Yes	SELL	56	0¢	$0	0x526134…
06-15 04:02:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb45557…
06-15 04:02:15	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x03bfd0…
06-11 03:55:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xb581d9…
06-11 03:52:27	Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x3ead0f…
06-11 03:42:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x4001c5…
06-11 03:41:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x1f5537…
06-11 03:41:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x1373dd…
06-03 17:07:15	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x313fdf…
06-03 06:16:44	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0x82d6a8…
06-03 06:01:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x49d973…
06-03 06:01:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x17bd7d…
05-28 10:58:18	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0xf03385…
05-28 10:43:01	Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	59	82¢	$49	0xb53701…
05-28 10:42:22	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	37	81¢	$30	0x38a74b…
05-28 10:42:08	Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	51	86¢	$44	0x0b8bfa…
05-27 06:43:32	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	92¢	$80	0x44ed3d…
05-27 06:41:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x1594c2…
05-12 17:30:20	Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xd046b2…
04-24 05:23:08	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	98¢	$41	0x4c3f96…
04-23 19:02:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0xe1f591…
04-23 11:35:38	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x9163a8…
04-23 11:32:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x2f7e68…
04-23 11:32:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x085060…
04-23 11:32:26	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xddb749…
04-22 12:51:14	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xb16dbc…
04-22 12:50:08	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4665b0…
04-22 12:38:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x027b44…
04-22 03:32:10	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xa89cc8…
04-22 03:29:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xdbb0d5…
04-22 03:29:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xb40abf…
04-22 03:26:56	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x258c6f…
04-22 03:26:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xdbdea8…
04-22 03:23:16	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x9187d7…
04-20 08:30:38	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x801966…
04-20 08:27:52	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	No	BUY	83	96¢	$80	0x05d7ed…
04-20 08:24:22	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb9992d…
04-15 18:07:22	Will Trump visit China by June 30?	Yes	SELL	73	85¢	$62	0x5c38d1…
04-15 17:55:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x978808…
04-15 17:50:38	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x40679d…
04-15 17:47:58	Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0x902d21…
04-13 11:49:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x75f3a9…
04-13 11:46:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x83ae2a…
04-13 11:46:11	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	210	95¢	$200	0xf9a7c6…
04-13 11:29:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xc1b1d2…
04-12 17:31:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xedf57d…