Admirable-Capon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$821

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

59.8%

Resolved

199

Trades

711

lifetime

Volume

$194.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$273

Open exposure

$1.02K

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 88 days

Categories

Other

53% 36% +$2,513

Tech

38% 48% -$4,755

Politics

8% 38% +$1,667

Sports

0% 67% -$195

Crypto

0% 50% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes		+1,463	$1,023	70¢	$1.0K	-$6	10-28 20:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will google gemini 3 score at least 40 on the frontiermath benchmark	10	$8.3K	5,728	5,728	+0	No	+$1,385	01-29 08:41
gpt 5pt5 released by april 15 2026	9	$5.8K	16,514	1,731	+14,783	No	-$3,824	04-12 21:33
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	3	$5.3K	3,016	3,016	+0	Yes	+$717	03-30 01:39
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by October 31, 2026?	3	$5.3K	2,831	2,831	+0	Yes	+$270	09-03 08:45
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	10	$5.2K	7,217	7,217	+0	No	+$4,388	07-14 13:32
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	7	$4.8K	28,121	20,961	+7,161	Yes	-$1,190	08-02 01:04
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	5	$4.8K	3,029	3,029	+0	Yes	+$1,126	06-09 15:43
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	5	$4.4K	2,762	2,762	+0	No	+$213	04-23 12:35
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	6	$3.6K	3,145	3,145	+0	No	+$2,391	06-26 17:42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$3.5K	2,153	2,153	+0	Yes	+$194	05-14 09:43
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	11	$3.4K	2,724	1,530	+1,194	No	+$3	08-26 09:08
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	20	$3.3K	8,295	5,389	+2,906	Yes	-$328	09-21 23:58
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	3	$3.2K	3,265	3,265	+0	No	+$1,519	10-24 10:58
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	3	$3.1K	1,774	1,774	+0	No	+$291	06-13 13:33
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	2	$3.1K	2,244	2,244	+0	No	+$708	08-16 16:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$3.0K	1,692	1,692	+0	No	+$203	05-02 18:29
gpt 5pt6 released by june 23 2026	3	$3.0K	2,055	2,055	+0	No	+$1,002	06-22 17:11
will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 30 2026 20260624195228147 767	6	$2.8K	1,656	1,656	+0	Yes	-$19	06-30 16:47
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	16	$2.7K	5,982	5,982	+0	Yes	-$655	09-03 08:13
will tisza win at least 100 seats	3	$2.7K	2,014	2,014	+0	Yes	-$70	04-12 13:32
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	5	$2.7K	3,089	3,089	+0	No	+$2,407	09-03 22:06
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	1	$2.6K	2,850	0	+2,850	Yes	+$250	07-01 00:06
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	2	$2.6K	3,216	3,216	+0	Yes	+$199	07-24 21:40
will the next claude opus model be released by july 24 2026 231 543	4	$2.5K	3,326	1,684	+1,642	Yes	-$1,796	07-23 18:24
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	32	$2.5K	2,885	2,699	+186	No	+$664	05-27 14:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$2.4K	1,241	1,241	+0	No	+$32	05-27 16:19
next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	9	$2.4K	5,988	5,988	+0	Yes	-$503	08-31 18:50
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	2	$2.0K	2,488	0	+2,488	No	+$488	06-30 23:19
gpt 5pt6 released by july 24 2026 296 664 193	2	$2.0K	1,117	1,117	+0	Yes	-$4	06-30 16:54
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	1	$2.0K	3,021	0	+3,021	Yes	+$1,043	06-22 17:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 12:29:31	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,251	99¢	$1,233	0x1e43ed…
10-28 20:46:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	67¢	$23	0xc11a85…
10-28 18:19:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,429	70¢	$1,000	0x23c79d…
10-25 21:54:47	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,800	42¢	$757	0xb931cd…
10-25 21:52:29	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	201	50¢	$100	0x22de13…
10-25 21:52:03	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	205	49¢	$100	0x0ad884…
10-25 21:50:33	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	206	49¢	$100	0x0b6a1c…
10-25 21:50:09	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	209	48¢	$100	0x411053…
10-25 21:49:26	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	48¢	$100	0x8d3099…
10-25 21:48:57	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	128	48¢	$61	0xbb0f6e…
10-25 21:48:35	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x9d5638…
10-25 21:48:14	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	47¢	$100	0xe8fb5b…
10-25 21:47:54	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	47¢	$100	0x0567ab…
10-24 10:58:27	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,265	72¢	$2,360	0x01e46e…
10-21 14:21:53	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,788	27¢	$741	0x457c36…
10-21 14:21:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	901	82¢	$740	0xb0e4e9…
10-20 21:55:57	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	477	21¢	$100	0x2e2092…
10-20 21:54:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	156	64¢	$100	0x6746a3…
10-15 17:59:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1,057	25¢	$263	0xb6945c…
10-15 17:56:31	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	393	70¢	$275	0xea8e91…
10-02 10:51:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	56¢	$32	0x20b878…
10-02 10:51:21	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	333	10¢	$33	0x9a3a05…
10-02 10:49:51	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	336	56¢	$187	0x619956…
10-01 17:08:18	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	10¢	$19	0x986e8e…
10-01 02:33:51	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	367	23¢	$85	0x977bda…
10-01 02:29:18	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	841	11¢	$90	0xa0c2e2…
10-01 00:46:50	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x8ee966…
09-30 22:39:47	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	40	57¢	$23	0x27afa3…
09-29 17:45:15	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	314	11¢	$35	0x7240bd…
09-29 17:44:47	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	450	10¢	$45	0x00b1db…
09-29 17:41:57	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	28¢	$9	0x8b1c13…
09-29 17:41:33	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0x25575b…
09-29 17:40:57	SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	110	97¢	$107	0x66dce4…
09-29 17:40:21	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	53	30¢	$16	0x0c007c…
09-28 16:09:42	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	434	23¢	$100	0x59fe62…
09-28 10:42:36	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	341	29¢	$100	0x15755b…
09-28 10:41:38	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,241	8¢	$100	0xf39d81…
09-28 10:40:20	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2,591	19¢	$500	0x5eb39d…
09-28 10:39:59	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	Yes	SELL	677	87¢	$588	0x81201a…
09-27 07:40:03	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	68¢	$23	0xc2753f…
09-27 07:38:50	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	Yes	BUY	405	74¢	$300	0x004d22…
09-27 02:29:51	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	66¢	$96	0x29c6f0…
09-26 21:32:35	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	199	58¢	$114	0xe831b8…
09-26 01:43:33	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x3bb366…
09-26 01:43:17	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0xf0e796…
09-26 01:43:06	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x5360ad…
09-26 00:26:42	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	80	51¢	$41	0xb60b9f…
09-25 22:46:51	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	525	33¢	$173	0x2157cc…
09-25 22:45:32	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	32¢	$11	0xd0936a…
09-25 22:44:18	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2c204e…
09-25 22:42:41	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x0438cf…
09-25 22:41:23	Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	28¢	$62	0x5d0c34…
09-25 22:40:54	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	353	43¢	$150	0xf025a7…
09-24 22:39:11	Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xa9f58b…
09-24 19:39:00	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xa34b9e…
09-24 19:35:30	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	No	BUY	120	19¢	$23	0x8a44f2…
09-24 19:32:56	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0x5d3772…
09-24 19:29:24	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	Yes	BUY	272	57¢	$156	0xac2f9e…
09-24 19:18:42	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	BUY	257	39¢	$100	0x4f3815…
09-24 19:17:56	SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x494abd…
09-23 11:35:50	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,393	6¢	$154	0x7b07ec…
09-22 18:59:25	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	393	9¢	$36	0x84b518…
09-22 17:51:36	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	1,026	5¢	$50	0xffaf94…
09-22 17:47:34	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0xe6aae8…
09-22 17:47:19	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xcb50b6…
09-22 17:45:33	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,080	4¢	$136	0x3f8be5…
09-22 16:15:12	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	SELL	605	7¢	$41	0xf0f675…
09-22 07:47:25	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0xabfcc1…
09-21 23:58:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,906	3¢	$100	0x482eb8…
09-21 16:29:14	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	188	53¢	$100	0xdead81…
09-21 16:25:20	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,039	5¢	$50	0x9ee357…
09-21 16:16:20	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	791	13¢	$100	0x65fe00…
09-21 01:19:32	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	115	91¢	$104	0x30b4c5…
09-20 04:30:49	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	636	11¢	$70	0xc3b0f9…
09-20 04:28:24	Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	115	75¢	$86	0xde31bf…
09-19 22:15:42	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,000	5¢	$100	0x1bebe9…
09-19 22:15:02	Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,444	8¢	$200	0x919290…
09-19 02:34:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x4a1a35…
09-17 09:54:22	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	1,002	5¢	$52	0x16acb4…
09-16 20:45:16	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	8,360	0¢	$15	0xd71505…
09-15 03:32:22	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,699	16¢	$428	0x5eafa0…
09-12 17:05:51	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	191	22¢	$42	0x19c238…
09-11 22:28:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	10,157	1¢	$127	0xfcad3e…
09-11 22:06:15	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	251	26¢	$65	0xf12282…
09-11 21:40:54	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	232	24¢	$56	0xccb1e9…
09-11 21:38:45	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xfecb68…
09-11 21:38:31	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	959	21¢	$200	0x3817e5…
09-10 12:01:46	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	22	39¢	$8	0x91ddc3…
09-09 20:40:48	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,360	1¢	$50	0x72513c…
09-09 01:05:16	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	208	67¢	$139	0x31287d…
09-09 01:03:25	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	78	65¢	$51	0xce7715…
09-09 01:02:30	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	160	64¢	$102	0x5e2515…
09-08 20:38:24	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	177	56¢	$100	0x4dbff5…
09-08 20:37:48	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	311	64¢	$200	0x213463…
09-08 16:14:46	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0xa57b3c…
09-08 16:14:13	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	80	67¢	$54	0xdb85ab…
09-08 16:13:54	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	BUY	83	51¢	$42	0x56d30f…
09-08 16:13:27	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	150	66¢	$99	0x6d4742…
09-08 16:13:19	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	96	65¢	$62	0xcf9ab6…
09-08 09:37:24	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	252	22¢	$55	0x62d715…