Outlying-Eavesdropper — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

52.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$66

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 06-22 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 75% -$9

Politics

21% 14% -$6

Other

17% 25% -$3

Pop-Culture

2% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Up	-$5	05-14 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-15 03:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Down	-$5	05-15 04:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-14 16:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	05-14 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-14 19:49
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 19:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	4	$4	5	0	+5	Down	-$4	05-19 05:44
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$2	9	0	+9	No	-$2	05-14 15:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	1	$2	2	0	+2	Yes	+$0	05-25 04:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$2	2	0	+2	Up	+$0	05-20 04:54
Trump out as President before GTA VI?	2	$2	2	2	+0	cancelled	+$0	05-19 04:35
Will Nate and Cassie get divorced in Euphoria: Season 3?	2	$2	4	4	+0	No	$0	05-19 07:35
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	2	$2	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	05-19 04:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$1	7	7	+0	No	-$1	06-22 18:40
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	4	$1	7	7	+0	No	-$1	05-20 04:54
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$1	4	4	+0	No	-$1	05-19 04:32
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$1	2	2	+0	No	-$1	05-19 04:32
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	06-18 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Up	+$1	05-17 13:26
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	1	$1	2	0	+2	No	-$1	06-15 14:59
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$1	2	0	+2	No	+$1	05-15 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-16 06:59
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	6	0	+6	No	-$1	05-14 15:54
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	3	0	+3	No	-$1	05-14 16:33
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	3	0	+3	No	-$1	05-14 15:54
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	1	$1	111	0	+111	No	-$1	05-14 17:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Up	+$0	05-15 14:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$1	1	0	+1	Down	+$0	05-15 18:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 18:40:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x466129…
06-18 20:55:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xe88405…
06-18 20:52:31	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x2947f4…
06-17 19:12:37	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x7d4595…
06-15 14:59:52	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x3da118…
05-31 18:17:46	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x1f5891…
05-25 04:36:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x5d517b…
05-20 04:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x851793…
05-20 04:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7174a6…
05-20 04:54:35	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	SELL	0	1¢	$0	0x3104c6…
05-20 04:54:07	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xd4c2fd…
05-20 04:53:58	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x8f9447…
05-19 07:35:39	Will Nate and Cassie get divorced in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0x26c023…
05-19 05:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x26d0ce…
05-19 05:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x9edbcd…
05-19 05:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xc15eb9…
05-19 05:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbc1a8d…
05-19 04:35:12	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xfc24f5…
05-19 04:32:47	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xdb4b82…
05-19 04:32:42	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x811360…
05-19 04:32:24	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x501f25…
05-17 13:26:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa687d3…
05-16 06:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xaf2c75…
05-15 18:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa6b687…
05-15 18:27:38	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x49ef94…
05-15 14:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2c088b…
05-15 04:50:46	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3bfa60…
05-15 04:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x81175b…
05-15 03:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xaa806b…
05-14 19:49:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa17cc6…
05-14 17:10:57	Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xc5e119…
05-14 16:33:45	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x582a1e…
05-14 16:25:07	Trump out as President before GTA VI?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xe745f0…
05-14 16:23:10	Will Nate and Cassie get divorced in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x7fb09c…
05-14 16:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x441fc5…
05-14 16:04:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x06481e…
05-14 16:00:39	Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbd2ce6…
05-14 15:57:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x01039f…
05-14 15:56:48	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xd33700…
05-14 15:55:01	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2b43c7…
05-14 15:54:51	Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xcc4452…
05-14 15:54:33	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x4ff62c…
05-14 15:54:25	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x95f5d7…