Mean-Treasure-Kingdom — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$682

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

70.2%

Resolved

136

Trades

385

lifetime

Volume

$17.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$47

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 10-30 12:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

44% 38% +$270

Politics

44% 41% +$430

Sports

11% 50% +$2

Crypto

0% 0% -$20

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No		+52	$7	5¢	$2	-$5	10-30 00:22
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes		+56	$5	0¢	$0	-$5	10-19 22:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us reissues iran oil sanction relief by august 31 20260707233859434	4	$908	593	593	+0	No	+$208	08-19 06:04
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	6	$873	738	688	+50	No	+$263	10-25 23:23
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	14	$829	808	808	+0	No	+$47	06-14 19:09
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?	3	$714	451	451	+0	Yes	+$116	07-31 12:34
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	12	$609	1,894	1,894	+0	No	-$53	07-14 20:20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$566	1,278	1,278	+0	Yes	-$6	07-14 21:41
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	3	$549	474	474	+0	open	—	08-09 17:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	7	$468	730	730	+0	open	—	10-29 17:27
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	4	$467	390	390	+0	Yes	+$47	09-18 09:52
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on September 10?	4	$460	377	377	+0	Yes	+$60	09-10 12:47
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	3	$460	440	440	+0	No	+$60	08-29 21:05
Will Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?	2	$418	323	323	+0	Yes	+$18	08-12 17:08
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	3	$367	244	244	+0	No	+$87	07-24 09:22
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?	3	$338	563	0	+563	Yes	+$224	07-31 12:35
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	2	$333	250	250	+0	No	-$67	09-23 14:10
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$319	276	276	+0	Yes	+$15	06-07 19:06
Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	2	$257	162	162	+0	Yes	+$57	09-21 16:36
Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?	1	$250	357	0	+357	No	-$250	08-07 11:53
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	3	$250	480	0	+480	Yes	+$230	08-25 13:24
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	2	$250	172	172	+0	open	—	10-29 17:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$244	152	152	+0	No	+$44	06-20 17:40
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	2	$241	143	143	+0	No	+$41	07-02 15:38
us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	2	$230	143	143	+0	No	+$30	08-22 21:26
Will Colin Sutton win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?	2	$229	137	137	+0	Yes	+$29	07-13 16:46
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$229	143	143	+0	Yes	+$29	07-30 11:11
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	2	$228	132	132	+0	No	+$28	07-09 14:52
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	2	$226	127	127	+0	No	+$26	06-14 13:27
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$222	124	124	+0	No	+$22	06-28 11:45
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$222	585	585	+0	No	+$42	07-15 21:53
will the announcers say var during the france vs spain fifa world cup match 20260713142716373	2	$218	119	119	+0	Yes	+$18	07-14 19:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:18:36	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in October?	Yes	BUY	75	40¢	$30	0x735003…
10-30 00:22:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	BUY	52	14¢	$7	0x639112…
10-29 17:42:16	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	SELL	389	2¢	$8	0x2a38e0…
10-29 17:27:37	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	SELL	319	3¢	$10	0xe574ab…
10-29 17:27:34	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	69	25¢	$17	0x97e6ef…
10-29 17:27:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	23¢	$23	0x7df2aa…
10-29 17:27:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	185	42¢	$78	0x268234…
10-29 17:27:31	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	SELL	172	87¢	$150	0xf0567b…
10-28 09:49:10	Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	69	29¢	$20	0x415c83…
10-28 09:30:55	Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0x7d3733…
10-28 00:52:59	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	SELL	122	91¢	$111	0x360207…
10-25 23:23:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xe2fcd2…
10-25 23:17:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	185	27¢	$50	0x4536ed…
10-25 21:49:20	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	146	12¢	$17	0x976755…
10-25 13:47:59	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	142	70¢	$100	0x92b570…
10-25 13:35:03	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0xa84c7f…
10-22 08:35:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x4d715b…
10-21 07:23:51	Will Yashar win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	63	32¢	$20	0xea708a…
10-20 07:51:38	Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?	Bibi	BUY	122	41¢	$50	0xc8656c…
10-19 22:59:30	Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xbda582…
10-19 19:08:44	Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x7768db…
10-19 15:43:08	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0xe485d3…
10-19 11:08:18	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xd4b828…
10-18 17:54:09	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x17cf4c…
10-18 17:52:50	Will Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x7b442a…
10-17 23:50:41	Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xd250f8…
10-15 08:36:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	263	76¢	$200	0xb755f8…
10-15 08:27:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x549b0f…
10-15 08:23:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	661	83¢	$546	0x4656f3…
10-05 19:25:44	Will France win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xd786ae…
10-05 19:25:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	28	83¢	$23	0xf7be1f…
10-04 20:24:26	Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xf25875…
10-01 19:23:47	Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	196	51¢	$100	0xbe6f5c…
09-29 17:28:05	Will Finland win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x98924d…
09-27 17:13:53	Will Serbia win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	76	13¢	$10	0x569e30…
09-27 16:57:02	Will Serbia win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	59	3¢	$2	0xb4ea6a…
09-24 19:18:00	Will Israel win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	66	15¢	$10	0xddd1a6…
09-24 18:51:47	Will Israel win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0xeae919…
09-23 14:10:14	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	Yes	SELL	250	53¢	$133	0x2866cb…
09-22 13:49:21	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0xaa96cb…
09-22 02:29:44	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x014563…
09-21 20:39:40	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	BUY	78	38¢	$30	0x3bbe20…
09-21 18:31:48	Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Yes	BUY	187	53¢	$100	0x1b2a6c…
09-21 16:36:33	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	SELL	162	97¢	$157	0x4a2b07…
09-20 05:41:03	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	48¢	$37	0xc0e980…
09-19 20:00:51	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	184	54¢	$100	0x6d1c81…
09-18 10:26:12	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd9b9cc…
09-18 09:55:07	Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x97227a…
09-18 09:52:45	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	390	66¢	$257	0x47cb13…
09-17 11:17:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 11:15 UTC	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x0fd3be…
09-16 15:18:33	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x7b925b…
09-15 19:41:09	Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x3732c2…
09-14 09:46:31	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$5	0x3a7878…
09-14 09:27:18	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	BUY	91	5¢	$5	0xf85db4…
09-14 00:40:04	Will Austin FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xcc216a…
09-13 22:27:24	Will Austin FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xb1a5d6…
09-11 10:28:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $103 on September 11?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x977a93…
09-10 21:09:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	182	55¢	$100	0x32580a…
09-10 20:28:10	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x81a1b5…
09-10 12:47:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on September 10?	Yes	SELL	154	93¢	$143	0xc7be25…
09-10 09:49:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on September 10?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xc70803…
09-10 08:54:10	wti closes above 97 on september 10 2026	Yes	SELL	223	52¢	$117	0x0395e9…
09-10 08:54:03	wti closes above 96 on september 10 2026	Yes	SELL	159	71¢	$113	0xac00da…
09-10 08:23:51	wti closes above 97 on september 10 2026	Yes	BUY	223	45¢	$100	0x360203…
09-10 08:22:48	wti closes above 96 on september 10 2026	Yes	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x0b16d1…
09-09 20:10:28	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-09?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x6c0600…
09-09 17:06:30	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	112	54¢	$60	0x4f5724…
09-09 09:27:37	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on September 9?	No	BUY	270	74¢	$200	0xc1ef76…
09-08 19:39:57	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	61	3¢	$2	0x980cd4…
09-08 19:11:52	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xbdd534…
09-08 19:08:24	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x61f2e6…
09-08 09:30:13	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	146	10¢	$15	0x3e9188…
09-07 21:17:42	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	127	29¢	$37	0xd86a0a…
09-07 17:07:33	Will Hapoel Ramat Gan Givatayim FC win on 2026-09-07?	Yes	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x763cb7…
09-07 06:12:54	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0x3a4ea8…
09-06 11:53:40	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	313	31¢	$98	0xfe5780…
09-05 17:51:13	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x38e17c…
09-05 17:34:01	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	SELL	43	13¢	$6	0xf78b8d…
09-05 17:13:00	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-05?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x0e88db…
09-05 17:07:40	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	313	32¢	$100	0xbf8b31…
09-05 16:48:51	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	111	45¢	$50	0xd4acf3…
09-03 13:56:42	Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x926915…
09-03 08:26:18	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x44c43c…
09-02 19:57:27	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	115	43¢	$50	0x7737c0…
09-02 19:56:28	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	113	44¢	$50	0x3f4130…
09-01 16:00:13	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	Yes	SELL	49	100¢	$49	0x6f9809…
08-31 18:59:28	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	24	12¢	$3	0x571524…
08-31 16:00:28	Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$0	0xd83bac…
08-31 16:00:15	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x8f5fe8…
08-31 16:00:12	Will USD be at least 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	SELL	64	0¢	$0	0x431998…
08-31 12:21:49	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.1M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xffaa88…
08-31 11:12:50	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$1	0x28408d…
08-31 06:14:40	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	253	39¢	$100	0x70690e…
08-31 06:12:52	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x846b9d…
08-31 06:11:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	253	39¢	$100	0xc0a7f5…
08-31 05:13:31	Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	SELL	151	4¢	$7	0x41cf32…
08-30 18:55:25	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x20159a…
08-30 18:54:54	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	71¢	$10	0x2817dd…
08-30 10:44:37	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x515682…
08-30 09:07:54	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in August?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xb78438…