Well-Groomed-Fiesta — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.12K

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

57.2%

Resolved

181

Trades

553

lifetime

Volume

$13.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$479

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 07-05 20:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Politics

48% 33% -$1,075

Crypto

43% 42% -$672

Other

9% 50% -$372

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-05).

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-8,026	-$161	2¢	$-177	-$16	05-28 19:57
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	-235	-$143	61¢	$-144	-$1	05-06 19:50
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	+143	$50	85¢	$121	+$71	07-04 10:30
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+134	$30	18¢	$24	-$6	05-06 19:50
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+796	$70	2¢	$14	-$56	05-06 19:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	4	$3.7K	6,007	6,007	+0	No	+$59	01-19 02:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$1.4K	3,081	500	+2,581	Yes	-$549	02-28 22:12
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$635	1,264	316	+948	Yes	-$427	02-27 19:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$461	0	485	-485	No	-$24	05-06 19:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	11	$323	242	242	+0	Up	+$43	05-17 21:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	8	$313	289	289	+0	Down	+$53	05-17 21:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	4	$311	507	507	+0	Up	+$221	05-17 21:34
spx up or down on january 21 2026	4	$264	6,233	0	+6,233	Up	-$264	01-21 15:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	6	$201	287	71	+216	Up	-$139	05-17 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	10	$198	997	497	+500	Down	+$18	05-19 21:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	7	$182	663	145	+518	Down	-$18	05-17 21:39
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	2	$173	110	82	+27	Yes	+$0	06-14 21:09
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$161	0	8,026	-8,026	open	—	05-28 19:57
will trump talk to vladimir putin in february	1	$150	167	0	+167	No	+$17	02-26 15:47
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$143	0	235	-235	open	—	05-06 19:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-26 15:10 UTC	9	$128	210	210	+0	Up	+$103	02-26 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	8	$124	360	92	+268	Up	-$26	05-20 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	3	$112	72	72	+0	Up	+$32	05-21 19:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	6	$105	1,023	0	+1,023	Up	-$105	05-21 19:08
us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	1	$100	3,571	0	+3,571	No	-$100	06-30 19:54
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$100	5,556	0	+5,556	Yes	-$100	01-21 15:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 19:25 UTC	1	$100	120	0	+120	Down	+$20	04-04 19:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:40 UTC	8	$93	324	323	+1	Down	+$3	03-27 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	4	$83	71	71	+0	Down	+$43	05-03 20:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 19:45 UTC	5	$79	86	85	+1	Up	+$20	03-27 19:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 20:25 UTC	4	$78	138	137	+1	Up	+$19	03-25 20:26
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$75	151	0	+151	Yes	-$75	02-08 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	4	$75	87	87	+0	Up	+$15	05-08 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	8	$75	188	0	+188	Up	-$57	05-17 21:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-04 18:40 UTC	6	$73	70	56	+14	Down	+$17	04-04 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 20:28:38	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	65	54¢	$35	0xacf3f6…
07-04 10:30:19	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	143	35¢	$50	0x9b183d…
06-30 19:54:41	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	3,571	3¢	$100	0xe45f93…
06-14 21:16:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x5a9c14…
06-14 21:15:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x746a8e…
06-14 21:15:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xa274c6…
06-14 21:15:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:15 UTC	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x41e2b9…
06-14 21:14:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x505b50…
06-14 21:10:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x3c32ac…
06-14 21:09:30	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	SELL	82	88¢	$73	0xbb1c2b…
06-14 21:01:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 21:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xb07ef6…
06-09 20:38:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xae762a…
06-09 20:37:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xcf7d42…
06-09 20:37:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x1ec175…
06-09 20:37:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x95f092…
06-09 20:36:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:35 UTC	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x41ed2f…
06-09 20:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	26	12¢	$3	0xb8b0e7…
06-09 20:31:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 20:30 UTC	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x0d1f69…
06-09 20:30:36	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	45	67¢	$30	0x11818d…
06-09 20:30:01	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x0fa9f8…
06-09 20:29:40	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x1a6ec1…
06-09 20:29:18	Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xf0029a…
05-28 20:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	156	3¢	$5	0xdf7a44…
05-28 20:12:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	SELL	152	2¢	$4	0x728c65…
05-28 20:12:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	86	2¢	$2	0x09636f…
05-28 20:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xa5340b…
05-28 20:11:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0xadb09e…
05-28 20:10:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x91eafa…
05-28 20:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xf8ad9b…
05-28 20:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa3ccf1…
05-28 20:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xeee482…
05-28 20:08:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x85963e…
05-28 20:06:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe35dcf…
05-28 20:05:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x73d8e1…
05-28 20:05:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9fa940…
05-28 20:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xd0a35c…
05-28 20:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0x5941be…
05-28 20:03:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x329169…
05-28 20:03:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x1f7e88…
05-28 20:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x42a1b2…
05-28 20:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x81969f…
05-28 19:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x6ec631…
05-28 19:58:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x1309e7…
05-28 19:58:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x057c24…
05-28 19:57:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	51	22¢	$11	0x614dc4…
05-28 19:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xd6e0cc…
05-28 19:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xbe401e…
05-28 19:57:05	Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	8,026	2¢	$161	0x593c5e…
05-24 20:20:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x1ee7cb…
05-24 20:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x3712f2…
05-24 20:19:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xaa2937…
05-24 20:19:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x9cc159…
05-24 20:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xa17dfb…
05-24 20:16:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x1ac42a…
05-24 20:16:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x7640be…
05-24 20:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x7ecb6f…
05-24 20:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x45044a…
05-24 20:12:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x275da5…
05-24 20:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x5c780f…
05-24 20:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x0d58b2…
05-24 20:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xe97962…
05-24 20:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	SELL	35	84¢	$29	0x09c693…
05-24 20:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	35	12¢	$4	0x043e4f…
05-24 20:07:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	42	35¢	$15	0x87b15c…
05-24 20:07:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x3dfddb…
05-24 20:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x9b03cf…
05-24 20:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x0e819c…
05-22 21:15:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x8ec3de…
05-22 21:12:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xf27742…
05-22 21:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x737b60…
05-22 21:04:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xd353d0…
05-22 21:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x5c7d57…
05-22 21:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0xcc1f7b…
05-22 21:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x4047c2…
05-22 20:57:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x5f58e6…
05-22 20:57:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xb32144…
05-22 20:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xca1213…
05-22 20:56:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x5c6f03…
05-22 20:55:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x064a4f…
05-22 20:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x0a020c…
05-22 20:55:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa887d0…
05-22 20:52:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x3f2bc4…
05-22 20:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xc12214…
05-22 20:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xc72a96…
05-22 20:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x925610…
05-22 20:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x0942c4…
05-22 20:37:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x4629dd…
05-22 20:37:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	28	63¢	$17	0x76b597…
05-22 20:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xb6d429…
05-22 20:36:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x88c76e…
05-22 20:33:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x5eee08…
05-22 20:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	139	5¢	$7	0x09c1c1…
05-22 20:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xa0d5e4…
05-22 20:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x468319…
05-22 20:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xa86bb1…
05-22 20:31:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe31c41…
05-22 20:30:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x2f810e…
05-22 20:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x2eb30d…
05-22 20:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xf8f91d…
05-22 20:29:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x5b53da…