Inexperienced-Parable — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.00K

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

56.0%

Resolved

1,584

Trades

7,704

lifetime

Volume

$71.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$71

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-01 19:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 248 days

Categories

Other

54% 54% -$953

Politics

38% 52% +$130

Sports

4% 38% -$164

Tech

2% 66% +$41

Crypto

2% 53% -$56

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	-37	-$29	96¢	$-36	-$6	07-12 13:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	+34	$25	74¢	$25	$0	11-01 19:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+38	$10	26¢	$10	+$0	11-01 13:18
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	-$14	56¢	$0	+$14	11-01 18:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	74	$834	1,004	914	+90	No	-$64	01-14 19:46
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	113	$801	562	541	+21	No	+$27	01-15 00:35
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	65	$687	574	549	+26	No	-$6	01-29 11:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	72	$623	600	600	+0	Yes	-$11	06-14 22:48
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	86	$597	701	701	+0	Yes	+$64	06-15 14:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	52	$571	565	565	+0	No	-$3	05-30 13:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	55	$521	599	526	+73	Yes	-$26	05-28 14:17
nba lal sac 2026 01 12	17	$499	790	790	+0	Kings	-$1	01-13 05:01
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	24	$463	315	315	+0	No	-$2	01-15 11:56
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 540 559	55	$415	607	635	-28	No	+$13	01-06 16:42
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	46	$406	776	776	+0	Yes	-$37	01-06 14:48
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	46	$398	333	293	+40	No	+$9	01-15 17:29
will trump meet with volodymyr zelenskyy in january 2026	14	$388	209	209	+0	Yes	+$7	01-22 01:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	47	$385	391	360	+31	No	+$30	05-26 13:30
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 560 579	50	$382	1,548	1,548	+0	No	-$11	01-06 15:32
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	32	$353	401	320	+81	No	+$31	06-07 16:22
nba bos ind 2026 01 12	15	$351	443	443	+0	Pacers	+$69	01-13 02:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	32	$345	371	284	+88	No	-$22	05-30 13:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	41	$342	275	275	+0	No	+$43	05-26 00:29
over 60m committed to the ranger public sale 296 929 632	15	$333	222	222	+0	Yes	-$7	01-10 16:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	31	$324	269	266	+3	No	+$48	05-25 23:44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	14	$315	269	269	+0	No	+$199	05-26 00:51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	53	$305	311	260	+52	No	-$27	05-30 05:24
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	21	$304	258	258	+0	No	+$100	06-01 17:04
us strike on somalia by january 31	21	$297	184	184	+0	Yes	-$7	01-10 08:09
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	20	$289	251	250	+2	No	+$13	06-30 11:37
will venezuela give the us oil by january 31	21	$287	217	151	+66	Yes	+$12	01-11 09:08
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	25	$284	220	220	+0	No	+$1	05-25 18:37
will avatar fire and ash 3rd weekend box office be between 45m and 50m	18	$268	136	136	+0	No	$0	01-04 07:44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	22	$250	315	315	+0	No	+$15	05-25 23:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 19:01:22	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Yes	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xdba5f9…
11-01 18:27:45	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x01d6d4…
11-01 18:27:34	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x2adfde…
11-01 13:18:10	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xab6a72…
10-31 13:57:48	LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	LOS	BUY	96	26¢	$25	0xeda376…
10-30 22:39:43	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0xb9511c…
10-30 22:38:58	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	SELL	1	43¢	$0	0xd44f69…
10-30 22:38:51	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0x726f10…
10-30 22:38:19	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	SELL	1	46¢	$1	0x6a4457…
10-30 22:32:51	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	SELL	26	69¢	$18	0x9ea091…
10-30 22:27:30	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xab1124…
10-30 22:15:10	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	8	31¢	$2	0x1aa3ee…
10-30 22:15:07	LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x27dd16…
10-30 00:17:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	SELL	26	69¢	$18	0x82b51c…
10-30 00:15:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	26	68¢	$18	0x4f7555…
10-29 23:17:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	77	24¢	$19	0x1bb97a…
10-29 22:59:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	77	31¢	$24	0x71766a…
10-29 22:55:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0x44149b…
10-29 22:52:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	59	32¢	$19	0xabc6b9…
10-29 22:02:52	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	78	17¢	$13	0x0f04ed…
10-28 22:17:13	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	LYON	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0x163711…
10-28 21:44:16	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	313	4¢	$13	0xa2f89b…
10-27 13:22:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	69	32¢	$22	0xbbac03…
10-26 22:14:23	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Anyone's Legend	SELL	49	68¢	$33	0x204b30…
10-26 22:06:44	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Anyone's Legend	BUY	25	25¢	$6	0x833467…
10-26 22:03:03	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Anyone's Legend	BUY	4	34¢	$1	0xc4a488…
10-26 22:02:56	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Anyone's Legend	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc933fa…
10-26 22:02:56	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	Anyone's Legend	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x71805d…
10-26 12:55:59	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	124	8¢	$10	0xfadb67…
10-26 12:53:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4b3925…
10-25 22:57:57	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	3	76¢	$2	0xbdd9a1…
10-24 22:38:48	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x01d7d0…
10-24 21:42:29	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Secret Whales	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x07967f…
10-24 20:42:41	LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0x36ade4…
10-24 10:35:26	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x453900…
10-23 22:50:57	LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	Team Liquid	BUY	25	36¢	$9	0x5fb254…
10-23 22:47:44	LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	CTBC Flying Oyster	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x56e727…
10-23 22:44:41	LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	CTBC Flying Oyster	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x5566e4…
10-22 20:31:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xcbdf09…
10-21 21:37:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x652876…
10-20 14:36:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	114	21¢	$24	0x4cf7bc…
10-19 22:49:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0x37e4b3…
10-19 16:24:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0x754099…
10-19 16:18:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	13	67¢	$8	0xafd24d…
10-19 15:54:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	12¢	$4	0x8a3d62…
10-16 22:59:27	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x93534e…
10-16 22:18:39	lol fur c9 2026 10 16 game2	Cloud9	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0xaadf6e…
10-16 22:13:50	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x55910d…
10-16 21:13:24	lol fur c9 2026 10 16 game1	FURIA Esports	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x9a34ea…
10-16 17:38:08	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40	97¢	$38	0xabb4d1…
10-16 17:14:16	Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xd31b12…
10-15 20:43:56	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xb27392…
10-15 20:41:30	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xdaf909…
10-15 20:41:29	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x997c80…
10-15 20:41:27	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xddcd32…
10-15 20:41:27	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x1c193c…
10-15 20:39:38	LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner	Karmine Corp	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x36bcbd…
10-15 13:01:59	LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	HANJIN BRION	BUY	18	25¢	$5	0xec8544…
10-15 12:37:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	27	28¢	$7	0xc02115…
10-15 11:03:42	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x76893e…
10-14 14:22:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x8cc8ff…
10-14 14:22:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0x3041d4…
10-14 13:45:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	56¢	$16	0x57107a…
10-14 13:43:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x6a4791…
10-14 13:40:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	41	43¢	$17	0xa48124…
10-14 13:09:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	39	52¢	$20	0xd2e1e6…
10-14 12:46:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xd1225b…
10-14 12:44:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xc1febf…
10-13 11:33:08	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	HANJIN BRION	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0x578a50…
10-12 12:52:35	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0x679529…
10-12 12:52:15	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x4d3f35…
10-12 12:50:56	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xd821d6…
10-12 12:46:41	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xd3ebe1…
10-12 12:46:35	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xb064cd…
10-12 12:45:56	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0xf34713…
10-12 12:45:54	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0x1652e7…
10-12 12:33:54	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	SELL	14	30¢	$4	0x6e2261…
10-12 12:30:23	LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BNK FEARX	BUY	25	37¢	$9	0x8dafc3…
10-12 11:11:42	Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x6f5710…
10-12 10:06:13	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x82753e…
10-12 10:05:56	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x860ffc…
10-12 10:03:29	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x845fdd…
10-12 10:03:28	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x745cc0…
10-12 09:59:35	LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Vitality (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	KT Rolster	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xfa9251…
10-03 21:41:56	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xbd6e09…
10-03 21:41:56	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0xaea640…
10-03 21:38:56	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0x483be7…
10-03 21:38:52	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0xdc53d8…
10-03 21:38:38	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	4	63¢	$2	0xd4bc5b…
10-03 21:38:37	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	SELL	0	63¢	$0	0x1e03bb…
10-03 21:21:05	LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	LYON	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x9e5a14…
10-03 14:45:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	21¢	$16	0x08bf75…
10-03 14:44:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xa70cb3…
10-03 13:02:44	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	SELL	12	64¢	$8	0xb9fbc7…
10-03 13:01:39	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0x2399a4…
10-03 13:01:26	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0xcd5f8c…
10-03 12:52:42	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	BUY	13	25¢	$3	0xd5fd8f…
10-03 12:52:41	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x87ccb8…
10-03 12:48:08	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	HANJIN BRION	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x8b5674…
10-01 17:21:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	111	22¢	$24	0x1d0184…