Trifling-Toll — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$119

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

137

lifetime

Volume

$6.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-19 21:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

93% 0% $-119

Other

6% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$891	1,564	1,564	+0	open	—	04-17 16:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	6	$458	594	597	-3	open	—	06-15 13:43
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	3	$443	267	267	+0	open	—	03-23 01:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	6	$410	230	230	+0	open	—	03-09 05:11
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$380	283	283	+0	open	—	03-28 04:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	4	$312	175	175	+0	open	—	04-27 16:45
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$299	0	3,322	-3,322	open	—	06-12 03:01
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	4	$285	149	149	+0	open	—	03-11 03:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	6	$283	488	0	+488	open	—	06-11 05:10
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$276	381	0	+381	open	—	04-21 03:42
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$252	416	416	+0	open	—	03-28 05:38
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	3	$179	214	0	+214	open	—	03-03 21:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$157	93	93	+0	open	—	04-22 17:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$152	185	0	+185	open	—	05-27 19:46
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$144	111	111	+0	open	—	03-06 14:06
will james talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the democratic senate primary in texas	3	$121	80	80	+0	open	—	03-03 08:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	4	$112	228	228	+0	open	—	04-17 06:18
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$107	382	0	+382	open	—	04-16 04:40
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$104	60	60	+0	open	—	04-21 23:18
us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	3	$102	122	122	+0	open	—	06-11 04:45
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	1	$94	181	0	+181	open	—	04-15 15:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	1	$90	153	0	+153	Yes	$-90	04-21 18:00
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	2	$80	116	0	+116	open	—	02-28 03:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$67	73	0	+73	open	—	06-25 07:37
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	4	$66	61	61	+0	open	—	03-04 03:37
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	1	$65	0	131	-131	open	—	06-20 18:03
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$58	33	33	+0	open	—	07-19 21:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	3	$56	28	28	+0	open	—	06-20 06:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$50	75	94	-19	open	—	06-15 13:43
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	3	$49	73	73	+0	No	$-29	03-03 21:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 21:23:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x8f722b…
07-19 21:22:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x2cd623…
06-25 07:37:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xcea123…
06-20 18:05:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb2a22b…
06-20 18:05:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	54	92¢	$50	0x3f6d9b…
06-20 18:03:23	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	131	50¢	$65	0x5def28…
06-20 07:02:22	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc2d4df…
06-20 06:44:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x3cffa2…
06-20 06:44:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x5a5ead…
06-20 06:43:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x70d789…
06-15 16:31:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xd0625f…
06-15 16:24:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	45	5¢	$2	0xa9cb57…
06-15 13:43:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0x9f7b5b…
06-15 13:43:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	494	4¢	$20	0x8a10f3…
06-13 07:35:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x00e48d…
06-12 07:49:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	391	64¢	$250	0x5634db…
06-12 03:01:54	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,322	9¢	$299	0xc86c53…
06-11 05:10:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	88	58¢	$51	0xc992f3…
06-11 04:45:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	SELL	122	42¢	$51	0xf26765…
06-10 18:55:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0xa28805…
06-10 04:36:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	172	58¢	$100	0xbb1a41…
06-10 04:35:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0xb4a875…
06-10 01:26:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	138	58¢	$80	0xa257bf…
06-03 20:00:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbfaaf6…
06-03 19:57:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0af81e…
06-03 00:29:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9da1ed…
06-02 16:45:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	103	61¢	$63	0xd6ed81…
06-02 16:35:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x49ae48…
06-01 18:11:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x9e5303…
06-01 04:03:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x81b3e8…
06-01 04:02:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5312a7…
05-30 18:02:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0x23d474…
05-30 18:01:16	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x29636a…
05-30 18:00:33	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x475f19…
05-30 17:51:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xb72c1a…
05-27 19:46:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	86¢	$105	0x56ef78…
05-26 06:11:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	75¢	$47	0xdbeb96…
05-25 05:45:58	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe430d0…
05-25 05:10:15	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x272953…
05-12 16:15:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	47	76¢	$36	0xd6bf16…
04-30 17:45:38	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x3e88ae…
04-30 17:40:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x746cee…
04-27 16:59:26	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	SELL	7	59¢	$4	0x1b0a3b…
04-27 16:45:10	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	175	98¢	$172	0xa6d540…
04-25 05:53:14	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x5535b6…
04-22 17:42:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	101	81¢	$82	0x9933db…
04-22 17:41:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	93	88¢	$82	0x4331b4…
04-22 17:37:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	80¢	$29	0xefc7ae…
04-21 23:22:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xc08dbf…
04-21 23:22:22	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 21 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa3b938…
04-21 23:18:08	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x28de3f…
04-21 20:27:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	77¢	$29	0x9f5b04…
04-21 18:00:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	153	59¢	$90	0x114e81…
04-21 17:54:36	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	26	75¢	$19	0x2dcb61…
04-21 17:52:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	83¢	$65	0x12c616…
04-21 03:42:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0xef97ca…
04-21 03:31:00	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	No	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0xd6294b…
04-20 17:02:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xe87c6e…
04-20 05:54:52	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	26	75¢	$19	0x052b03…
04-20 05:48:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x001346…
04-20 05:43:02	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x0b849d…
04-20 05:38:22	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x764aae…
04-19 02:18:26	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xe1bc72…
04-17 16:42:48	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	1,564	9¢	$141	0x595cee…
04-17 06:18:50	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	SELL	228	8¢	$18	0x45045d…
04-16 19:36:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xc5deaf…
04-16 04:40:12	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	382	28¢	$107	0xda3795…
04-15 15:51:32	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	181	52¢	$94	0xde78d0…
04-15 15:50:04	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xa384cd…
04-08 04:15:49	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	1,110	46¢	$511	0xb50ad5…
04-08 03:21:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	454	53¢	$239	0x3eaa10…
03-28 05:39:21	Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x800654…
03-28 05:38:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	102	16¢	$16	0x8aa48d…
03-28 04:17:37	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	283	68¢	$193	0xd85b21…
03-23 01:26:05	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	317	78¢	$247	0x62802d…
03-23 01:17:27	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	SELL	267	92¢	$247	0xe75418…
03-22 14:44:41	will russia capture rodynske by march 31	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x95541c…
03-22 14:44:15	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x281639…
03-20 08:35:57	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$3	0xada5af…
03-20 08:33:55	Netanyahu out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xae2d6a…
03-20 08:28:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	22	99¢	$21	0xe368cf…
03-18 01:19:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	37	76¢	$28	0xdb4cb0…
03-18 00:15:25	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	104	27¢	$28	0xaca457…
03-16 23:00:51	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	204	24¢	$49	0x3f73d1…
03-13 21:18:53	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	291	37¢	$108	0x885306…
03-11 03:16:15	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	204	72¢	$147	0xdbeec8…
03-11 03:15:25	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	No	SELL	149	98¢	$147	0x5032e1…
03-09 08:55:31	US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	283	66¢	$187	0x33ee72…
03-09 08:54:47	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	125	40¢	$50	0x96d6a3…
03-09 05:56:21	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	169	43¢	$73	0x18d998…
03-09 05:20:51	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x086200…
03-09 05:20:35	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x05355d…
03-09 05:20:21	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	No	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0xd0395a…
03-09 05:11:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	230	98¢	$227	0x46cb6a…
03-07 02:06:59	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	No	BUY	35	98¢	$34	0x31b71f…
03-07 01:53:23	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x9453f8…
03-07 01:49:41	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	26	77¢	$20	0xcef3a7…
03-06 21:57:43	will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	No	BUY	104	96¢	$99	0x482f6e…
03-06 16:03:31	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x49a94d…
03-06 14:15:27	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	BUY	81	80¢	$64	0x5dfd11…