Active-Methane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.63K

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

45.1%

Resolved

264

Trades

1,807

lifetime

Volume

$40.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-05 22:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 107 days

Categories

Other

50% 31% -$5,207

Politics

24% 29% +$1,732

Sports

19% 39% -$430

Crypto

7% 27% +$274

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes		-18	-$12	12¢	$-2	+$10	11-05 22:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cl up or down on march 18 2026	52	$7.8K	64,126	28,185	+35,941	Up	-$3,956	03-19 03:56
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	129	$2.9K	25,116	20,116	+5,000	No	-$128	10-28 17:54
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	24	$2.8K	1,586	3,086	-1,500	Yes	+$515	02-02 01:07
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	25	$1.7K	4,602	3,147	+1,455	No	+$1,134	01-28 08:56
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	34	$1.6K	2,725	1,285	+1,440	Yes	+$271	03-08 00:14
cl up or down on march 10 2026	15	$1.3K	1,024	1,024	+0	Down	+$253	03-10 19:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	34	$747	2,380	1,020	+1,360	No	-$24	03-12 13:58
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?	140	$718	300,000	196,342	+103,658	No	+$118	03-04 16:14
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	20	$635	1,200	1,200	+0	No	+$159	07-19 20:36
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by march 13 955 782 768	2	$568	296	296	+0	Yes	+$23	03-12 19:30
iran strike on israel by february 28	20	$536	4,850	3,450	+1,400	Yes	+$59	02-28 20:50
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve on january 30 2026	5	$497	504	504	+0	Yes	+$475	01-30 06:11
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$436	10,900	8,500	+2,400	No	-$263	07-06 02:59
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	27	$398	1,649	1,639	+10	No	+$19	10-23 00:11
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	29	$371	3,601	1,053	+2,548	No	-$171	01-28 21:59
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	23	$317	8,500	8,500	+0	No	+$86	07-10 20:46
cl up or down on march 12 2026	6	$315	840	337	+504	Up	-$153	03-12 15:06
nba sac mem 2026 02 23	14	$304	466	315	+151	Kings	-$27	02-24 03:21
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	10	$301	620	120	+500	Spain	-$204	07-19 20:36
will crude oil cl settle at 90 in march	12	$292	247	247	+0	Yes	+$63	03-15 22:14
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	26	$290	1,676	653	+1,023	No	-$90	01-28 21:40
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	6	$289	261	230	+31	Yes	+$76	10-20 05:26
cl up or down on march 11 2026	3	$280	800	0	+800	Up	+$20	03-11 09:42
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	24	$265	1,702	1,702	+0	No	-$226	10-22 13:39
starmer out by june 22 2026	3	$262	224	224	+0	Yes	+$2	06-21 20:48
nba cha phx 2026 03 08 total 218pt5	21	$261	490	279	+211	Under	-$57	03-09 04:28
nba tor nop 2026 03 11 total 232pt5	9	$261	2,565	150	+2,415	Over	-$63	03-12 02:26
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 team to advance	6	$252	411	67	+344	England	+$157	07-06 02:33
spx up or down on march 10 2026	17	$227	523	65	+457	Down	+$36	03-10 19:51
spx up or down on march 13 2026	2	$221	140	140	+0	Down	+$59	03-13 20:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 22:14:39	Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	124	15¢	$19	0x61d78e…
10-28 18:59:59	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x210889…
10-28 18:54:37	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xb3fc64…
10-28 18:39:07	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xdf7c53…
10-28 18:32:44	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	22	31¢	$7	0x17490e…
10-28 18:12:17	Will Warsh say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0xba294a…
10-28 18:07:14	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x4678d3…
10-28 18:05:50	Will Warsh say "Good Day" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x1836e2…
10-28 17:54:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	215	3¢	$6	0x0982f1…
10-28 17:54:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0xa7da20…
10-28 17:54:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0x75e10f…
10-28 07:42:58	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	34	4¢	$1	0x8ae054…
10-28 07:35:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xde752f…
10-28 02:45:06	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x99b49a…
10-28 02:44:41	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	76	48¢	$36	0xed56ec…
10-28 01:47:41	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0xe2970b…
10-28 01:43:45	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	64	24¢	$15	0xf52239…
10-28 01:43:35	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xf7e71a…
10-28 01:13:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$11	0xe2af6e…
10-28 01:08:35	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	52	43¢	$22	0x1b0604…
10-28 01:08:33	Pistons vs. Knicks	Pistons	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0x591040…
10-28 00:23:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xc552d0…
10-28 00:23:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	190	4¢	$7	0xa807a9…
10-27 23:46:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x0ea5b8…
10-27 23:34:29	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x397586…
10-27 23:01:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	919	4¢	$38	0x8defc9…
10-27 22:57:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	281	4¢	$12	0xd62fa4…
10-27 21:46:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	37	4¢	$1	0xacb3a6…
10-27 21:44:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	4¢	$48	0xf53aa8…
10-27 21:22:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	340	5¢	$17	0xce3ce9…
10-27 20:57:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	880	4¢	$35	0x3aa463…
10-27 20:57:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	900	4¢	$36	0xc8433f…
10-27 19:58:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,250	5¢	$62	0xabae89…
10-27 19:02:30	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xc92d3a…
10-27 19:02:30	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	62	13¢	$8	0x7c8b11…
10-27 18:56:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x2b3497…
10-27 15:49:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	465	5¢	$23	0xa2f8f2…
10-27 15:41:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x527c0b…
10-27 15:31:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	631	5¢	$32	0x4b21d5…
10-27 15:07:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	420	5¢	$21	0x32cf0d…
10-27 14:25:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0x20cf97…
10-27 13:02:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x1f1583…
10-27 12:59:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0x1a622d…
10-27 09:58:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	510	7¢	$36	0xf7eea3…
10-27 09:18:02	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xa65fd0…
10-27 09:18:02	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x8fbbce…
10-27 09:18:02	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	33	16¢	$5	0x726e03…
10-27 09:18:02	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	37	16¢	$6	0x033e3f…
10-27 06:22:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	16	5¢	$1	0xc9629a…
10-27 03:07:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	514	5¢	$26	0x12f09b…
10-26 22:14:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	981	6¢	$59	0x5e4be5…
10-26 22:14:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	6¢	$1	0x5de6dd…
10-26 13:58:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,200	6¢	$72	0xcc0d6c…
10-26 13:55:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	156	6¢	$9	0x6cf94e…
10-26 12:00:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	550	5¢	$28	0xaa0720…
10-26 09:39:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	4¢	$24	0x7d82b2…
10-26 08:49:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	525	4¢	$21	0xb4d9cf…
10-26 06:34:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	491	4¢	$20	0x256a87…
10-26 06:19:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	59	4¢	$2	0xc6786f…
10-26 06:03:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,100	5¢	$55	0x6a9fe1…
10-26 00:11:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,200	5¢	$60	0x53a6dd…
10-25 22:06:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0xb3e545…
10-25 22:03:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	436	6¢	$26	0xeddb70…
10-25 22:01:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	6¢	$60	0x801ffb…
10-25 20:30:53	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xb0a6da…
10-25 18:04:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,212	6¢	$73	0xd242d4…
10-25 12:15:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,100	5¢	$55	0xf46eb8…
10-24 22:54:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0x6a82c4…
10-24 12:31:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	262	5¢	$13	0xff0dec…
10-24 08:16:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,150	6¢	$69	0xcad677…
10-24 07:42:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	800	6¢	$48	0x8e4725…
10-23 21:45:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	423	7¢	$30	0xbff72b…
10-23 21:33:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x2fd3e3…
10-23 21:20:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x11f271…
10-23 21:17:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0x5494d4…
10-23 21:16:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	565	7¢	$40	0x8d6103…
10-23 20:55:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	450	7¢	$32	0xdec23b…
10-23 14:07:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	6¢	$2	0xcdefcc…
10-23 13:16:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x2954dd…
10-23 13:00:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	221	6¢	$13	0x229371…
10-23 12:45:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	459	6¢	$28	0x59e809…
10-23 12:45:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	431	6¢	$26	0xbd883e…
10-23 12:15:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	8¢	$40	0xf1a0b4…
10-23 12:14:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	550	7¢	$39	0x82c351…
10-23 07:05:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	550	6¢	$33	0x0fae7f…
10-23 06:59:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0xdd550a…
10-23 06:44:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x4760a6…
10-23 05:38:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	5¢	$2	0x122c78…
10-23 04:56:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x53d7cb…
10-23 04:46:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x772354…
10-23 03:43:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x4db923…
10-23 02:40:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x2cf970…
10-23 02:31:17	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x0eb202…
10-23 01:57:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xe25128…
10-23 01:01:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x4daad1…
10-23 00:11:14	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	SELL	262	1¢	$3	0xbdb3b1…
10-23 00:00:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	5¢	$1	0x23b203…
10-22 23:28:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0x48d300…
10-22 22:04:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0x2d5bbe…
10-22 22:04:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0x6160aa…