Late-Disaster — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$40

Unrealized P&L

+$53

Hit rate

45.0%

Resolved

Trades

14,580

lifetime

Volume

$171.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$181

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-03 14:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

69% 100% +$13

Politics

19% — —

Crypto

10% — —

Sports

1% 50% +$27

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 236 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+200	$128	90¢	$181	+$53	05-28 16:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	21	$4.1K	2,335	1,854	+481	open	—	03-04 16:18
will mrbeasts next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1 348	5	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	01-14 14:26
will iran strike israel on march 6	41	$3.5K	2,034	2,186	-153	open	—	03-11 12:37
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 165 189	120	$3.4K	2,579	2,510	+70	open	—	01-17 20:54
highest temperature in london on january 20 11c	52	$3.2K	2,846	972	+1,874	open	—	01-20 15:03
highest temperature in nyc on january 19 32 33f	18	$2.6K	1,350	1,352	-2	open	—	01-20 08:04
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$2.5K	1,302	1,800	-498	open	—	06-03 14:19
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$2.4K	2,065	400	+1,665	open	—	03-04 18:27
cs2 bb3 9ine 2026 04 03	9	$2.3K	1,380	1,380	+0	open	—	04-03 11:32
cs2 mglz bcg 2026 04 04	6	$2.3K	1,302	1,295	+7	open	—	04-04 13:42
cs2 navi prv 2026 03 28 map handicap away 1pt5	10	$2.3K	1,842	1,842	+0	open	—	03-28 16:39
will bitcoin reach 80000 in february 298	4	$1.9K	2,300	0	+2,300	open	—	02-11 16:13
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	19	$1.8K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	05-22 12:55
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 90 114	104	$1.8K	1,603	507	+1,095	open	—	01-21 16:06
highest temperature in london on january 24 11corhigher	4	$1.6K	1,314	297	+1,018	open	—	01-24 15:45
will israel take military action in gaza on march 21 2026	78	$1.6K	1,125	593	+533	open	—	03-26 04:45
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 520 539	163	$1.5K	2,962	0	+2,962	open	—	01-16 16:50
cbb ill iowa 2026 03 28	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-28 17:09
solana up or down january 14 11am et	111	$1.5K	1,746	929	+817	open	—	01-14 17:00
cs2 mglz wc1 2026 04 07	2	$1.4K	766	766	+0	open	—	04-07 11:04
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 520 539	145	$1.3K	2,231	366	+1,865	open	—	01-20 16:26
lol gen jdg 2026 03 17	9	$1.3K	1,487	0	+1,487	open	—	03-16 12:40
cs2 fokus wc1 2026 04 06	1	$1.2K	1,564	0	+1,564	open	—	04-06 03:54
will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	12	$1.2K	1,050	150	+900	open	—	03-04 22:39
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?	61	$1.2K	771	514	+258	open	—	04-15 01:56
highest temperature in london on february 4 2026 8c	92	$1.2K	1,521	508	+1,014	open	—	02-04 07:23
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	161	$1.2K	2,477	287	+2,190	open	—	01-16 16:47
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 190 214	85	$1.1K	1,657	124	+1,533	open	—	01-17 16:56
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 115 139	60	$1.1K	931	756	+175	open	—	01-26 16:24
will iran strike israel on march 7	18	$1.1K	1,273	275	+998	open	—	03-07 17:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 14:19:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	302	100¢	$300	0xcddff3…
05-31 13:56:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	93¢	$186	0x4585e8…
05-31 13:49:42	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	92¢	$552	0x8533c0…
05-31 13:46:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	400	93¢	$372	0xc9453e…
05-30 06:05:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x977efb…
05-30 06:00:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	87	94¢	$82	0x0eb9eb…
05-30 04:58:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	77¢	$308	0x83f038…
05-29 12:37:51	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	600	61¢	$364	0x1bd880…
05-29 05:06:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	600	64¢	$381	0x713803…
05-28 16:52:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x7a6ffe…
05-28 02:22:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0x845354…
05-28 02:22:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x693436…
05-28 02:22:31	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xe5ddb8…
05-28 02:19:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	172	51¢	$87	0xe8cb3c…
05-26 16:18:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	68¢	$136	0xeceedb…
05-22 16:16:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	600	92¢	$552	0x8e9311…
05-22 12:55:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	682	80¢	$546	0xf0d02a…
05-15 22:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xa5966c…
05-15 22:25:33	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x7671a3…
05-15 22:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x79f261…
05-13 22:53:57	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	92	3¢	$3	0x536415…
05-13 22:45:40	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	18	3¢	$1	0xa39a51…
05-13 14:58:36	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	BUY	600	1¢	$5	0x721934…
05-09 01:09:04	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xf2d3dc…
05-09 00:44:51	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	37	71¢	$26	0xc4b242…
05-09 00:40:09	UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves?	Yes	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0xbf4216…
05-09 00:29:36	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0xab87c7…
05-09 00:28:33	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0xe9dbeb…
05-09 00:23:51	UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves?	Yes	BUY	42	10¢	$4	0x091701…
05-07 17:25:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xa383a8…
05-07 17:24:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xc521eb…
05-07 17:24:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	56	80¢	$45	0x3a2701…
05-07 17:22:04	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0x378159…
05-07 17:01:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	38	80¢	$30	0x7af59d…
05-07 17:00:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xf9b73d…
05-07 17:00:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x794f15…
05-07 16:52:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	47	80¢	$37	0x0b3c8e…
05-07 16:49:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	278	80¢	$222	0x21707d…
05-07 16:43:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xf9fc15…
05-07 16:31:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0x14e634…
05-06 14:44:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	931	72¢	$671	0x920533…
05-06 14:30:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x4c9273…
05-06 14:09:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0x7ab2ea…
05-06 14:03:54	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	71	72¢	$51	0xfd5d5f…
05-06 14:02:08	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	37	72¢	$26	0xa2f7f7…
05-06 14:00:26	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	46	72¢	$33	0xf2353f…
05-06 12:06:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	74	72¢	$53	0x794845…
05-03 18:21:28	Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xaee265…
05-03 18:21:28	Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0x9db7f1…
05-03 18:21:24	Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	125	41¢	$51	0xd8a641…
05-03 18:21:24	Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x657821…
05-03 16:39:22	Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	135	56¢	$76	0x2cce2c…
05-03 16:29:40	Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	138	51¢	$70	0xe2f992…
05-03 16:12:00	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	97	60¢	$58	0xf53bd3…
05-03 16:11:56	Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)	Juventus FC	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0xb68b54…
05-03 08:33:20	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	37	56¢	$21	0x6c92a6…
05-03 08:20:14	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	0	56¢	$0	0x5a9194…
05-03 08:09:58	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x40b55b…
05-03 08:09:54	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x7f0af3…
05-03 08:09:52	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xc730ce…
05-03 08:09:52	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xa2222e…
05-03 08:09:32	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xf47e81…
05-03 08:09:28	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$5	0x7a003d…
05-03 07:55:28	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x974a2b…
05-03 07:52:56	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	17	56¢	$10	0x50ac88…
05-03 07:52:48	AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x23f5d9…
05-02 19:01:30	SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbb2516…
05-02 19:01:28	SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xab6a30…
05-02 19:01:28	SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x1d7e1b…
05-02 19:01:26	SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xa7ba96…
05-02 19:01:26	SD Eibar vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x86d2a4…
05-02 15:57:18	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	42	50¢	$21	0x08b8f3…
05-02 15:57:06	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xc199c4…
05-02 15:57:06	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x55b511…
05-02 15:56:52	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	17	50¢	$8	0xb32467…
05-02 15:56:50	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x324eec…
05-02 15:39:08	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfe2176…
05-02 15:30:58	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x34dc35…
05-02 14:34:06	Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	121	54¢	$65	0x5581b4…
05-02 14:34:04	Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	14	54¢	$8	0x7e43fe…
05-02 13:41:06	Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	123	53¢	$65	0xaefffa…
05-02 13:38:54	Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	152	45¢	$68	0xa1db13…
05-02 13:38:38	Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	135	53¢	$72	0xbd55af…
05-02 13:30:36	1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	119	55¢	$66	0x10520a…
05-02 13:30:32	1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdd65ca…
05-02 13:30:16	1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	122	55¢	$67	0xb439b7…
05-02 11:09:02	UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jacob Malkoun	SELL	90	100¢	$90	0x2b4b3c…
05-02 10:33:52	UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Tim Elliott	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x500809…
05-02 09:49:22	UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jacob Malkoun	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x151974…
05-02 09:49:18	UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Jacob Malkoun (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jacob Malkoun	BUY	35	90¢	$32	0x2095f2…
05-01 13:31:40	Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils	Jannik Sinner	BUY	14	85¢	$12	0xc8edfa…
05-01 08:08:02	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	No	SELL	200	44¢	$88	0xc70f28…
04-30 18:20:28	Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	138	55¢	$76	0x90fcbb…
04-28 19:04:40	elc sot ips 2026 04 03 btts	Yes	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xf607d5…
04-28 19:04:38	elc sot ips 2026 04 03 btts	Yes	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x11feae…
04-28 19:04:34	elc sot ips 2026 04 03 btts	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0xdc154b…
04-27 18:35:46	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	138	49¢	$68	0xa9dc83…
04-27 18:17:02	Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27?	No	BUY	165	27¢	$45	0x6aa7b3…
04-27 18:15:08	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	106	54¢	$58	0xbb868c…
04-27 16:17:06	Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27?	Yes	BUY	138	56¢	$77	0x81b57d…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
oVyg7f 0x5f39…a78c	448	$131.2K	12,344	04-05 20:39
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	425	$57.4K	14,884	06-01 12:04
Different-Hazel 0x3dd2…9ab1	406	$170.4K	6,013	04-17 09:23
(anonymous) 0xf2eb…6eb5	399	$74.2K	8,265	03-20 06:22
(anonymous) 0xa4bd…e8a2	377	$132.7K	14,791	03-18 21:49
(anonymous) 0x945a…a48c	349	$24.4K	12,618	06-09 18:36
Motionless-Stalk 0xe347…b438	341	$88.6K	9,994	04-22 18:01
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	304	$576.8K	45,605	06-09 18:36