Outgoing-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.57K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

72.3%

Resolved

1,103

Trades

4,790

lifetime

Volume

$74.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-01 05:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 264 days

Categories

Other

99% 36% +$6,570

Crypto

1% 15% -$51

Politics

0% 36% +$55

Sports

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 490 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	474	$7.3K	3,856	3,856	+0	Yes	+$397	09-06 18:33
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 4?	4	$1.2K	617	617	+0	No	+$8	06-04 10:33
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 10?	11	$1.1K	858	565	+293	Yes	+$152	08-10 10:31
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 23?	39	$1.1K	721	720	+0	Yes	+$47	09-23 10:39
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 1?	5	$921	504	504	+0	Yes	+$86	08-01 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 14?	9	$892	1,141	261	+880	No	-$818	08-14 09:01
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 29?	4	$848	922	0	+922	Yes	+$74	07-29 11:00
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 18?	7	$844	543	543	+0	Yes	+$242	09-18 12:56
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7?	10	$808	626	221	+405	Yes	+$5	06-07 10:51
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8?	4	$779	793	8	+785	Yes	+$16	06-08 11:04
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 6?	10	$775	772	158	+614	Yes	+$63	07-06 11:32
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?	12	$729	994	201	+794	Yes	+$192	07-15 10:01
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 5?	21	$726	713	199	+514	Yes	+$70	08-05 10:32
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19?	5	$668	414	414	+0	Yes	+$24	06-19 11:06
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 25?	5	$655	788	63	+725	Yes	+$77	07-25 09:00
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 4?	14	$654	679	158	+521	Yes	+$34	07-04 10:34
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on September 17?	5	$648	394	394	+0	Yes	+$138	09-17 11:21
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 8?	2	$618	814	0	+814	Yes	+$196	07-08 09:33
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or higher on September 16?	5	$608	477	477	-0	Yes	+$344	09-16 07:19
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23?	1	$600	609	0	+609	Yes	+$9	06-23 10:39
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 12?	5	$570	433	200	+233	Yes	+$63	07-12 14:11
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 7?	20	$556	373	373	+0	Yes	+$5	07-07 08:34
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 18?	12	$516	452	408	+44	No	+$28	09-18 09:24
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 19?	9	$507	309	309	+0	Yes	+$111	09-19 12:59
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 14?	2	$505	260	260	+0	Yes	+$14	08-14 13:59
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on July 23?	3	$501	542	3	+539	Yes	+$38	07-23 10:37
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 7?	9	$482	636	636	+0	Yes	+$39	09-07 11:56
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 8?	8	$466	516	516	+0	No	+$83	08-08 11:07
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 11?	2	$459	260	260	+0	Yes	+$59	08-11 16:38
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 30?	8	$458	656	149	+507	Yes	+$73	07-30 10:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 05:00:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0x8f7d69…
11-01 04:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	199	13¢	$26	0x52d52c…
11-01 03:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	101	1¢	$1	0xe4a51d…
10-31 15:40:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x83059c…
10-31 15:39:18	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	254	11¢	$29	0xcaa2d1…
10-31 11:45:18	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	10¢	$0	0xdbce22…
10-31 10:45:07	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x597f2d…
10-31 10:14:55	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x54a2cc…
10-31 08:45:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x09b0e7…
10-31 04:45:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xf7da93…
10-31 04:30:33	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	80	26¢	$21	0x672df0…
10-31 04:07:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0x12325b…
10-31 02:34:24	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xb0a3c5…
10-31 01:51:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	77	35¢	$27	0xcb7d78…
10-31 01:42:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x7e0992…
10-31 01:39:49	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0xf21ada…
10-31 01:38:27	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0xe708d1…
10-31 01:33:37	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	SELL	248	8¢	$19	0xb9d59e…
10-30 13:10:24	Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 21°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x2e76d5…
10-30 10:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xd1e250…
10-30 10:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0x8bbfa5…
10-30 10:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x1bff79…
10-30 10:10:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	89	35¢	$31	0x0f4f03…
10-30 09:37:39	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	India	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xabc7c4…
10-30 08:50:00	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	143	17¢	$24	0xe8a160…
10-30 08:10:54	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xd18227…
10-30 07:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	105	14¢	$15	0x1dba81…
10-30 07:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	150	43¢	$64	0xd38a3f…
10-30 05:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	60	61¢	$37	0xb83f0e…
10-30 04:35:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$38	0x0b4097…
10-29 19:04:42	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	45	41¢	$18	0xdcda23…
10-29 17:48:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C or higher on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5f9b3b…
10-29 17:05:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	45	34¢	$15	0x68ea64…
10-29 14:22:53	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x4e471c…
10-29 13:50:43	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	143	6¢	$9	0x91567b…
10-29 12:42:59	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	87	7¢	$6	0x80bc8e…
10-29 12:42:44	England and Sri Lanka Tour of Pakistan ODIs: Sri Lanka vs England	Sri Lanka	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x24be31…
10-29 09:31:19	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	189	24¢	$45	0xe12424…
10-29 08:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	184	26¢	$48	0xfd6f65…
10-29 08:35:08	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 25°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xe5a3d5…
10-29 06:33:16	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	38	23¢	$9	0xfeaa77…
10-29 06:32:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	31	24¢	$7	0x356db3…
10-29 06:31:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	27	24¢	$6	0x06892e…
10-29 05:41:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x94368c…
10-29 04:48:17	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	35	38¢	$13	0x97f6e2…
10-29 04:31:11	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	14	8¢	$1	0x384c3d…
10-29 04:30:41	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x51b21a…
10-28 23:46:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	295	15¢	$44	0x5bb065…
10-28 23:43:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xb4f65c…
10-28 15:12:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	53	17¢	$9	0x912d6a…
10-28 14:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 22°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	90	20¢	$18	0x8e7d2f…
10-28 14:17:23	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x135177…
10-28 13:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0x4ba152…
10-28 08:11:58	highest temperature in lucknow on october 30 2026 24c	Yes	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x4681a4…
10-28 06:30:49	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0x413df8…
10-28 05:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x29da38…
10-28 05:01:17	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	53	43¢	$23	0xbe0970…
10-28 04:50:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 28°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	150	30¢	$45	0xae6283…
10-28 03:48:21	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0xa8615a…
10-27 18:07:15	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	153	34¢	$52	0xff292b…
10-27 14:24:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	140	19¢	$26	0xd79dd7…
10-27 12:29:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 26°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x7b68cd…
10-27 12:28:47	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	234	21¢	$49	0x8c355e…
10-27 09:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 27°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x6ec27d…
10-27 08:33:45	highest temperature in lucknow on october 29 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	150	34¢	$51	0x8a73ce…
10-27 08:32:54	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 29°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	159	29¢	$46	0x6f2187…
10-27 07:57:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x8334f8…
10-27 07:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xdc3bed…
10-27 07:44:20	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0xcfe5f5…
10-27 06:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0xbb00e6…
10-27 06:45:23	highest temperature in lucknow on october 29 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	159	29¢	$46	0x520bd6…
10-27 06:03:54	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xf5b18d…
10-27 03:38:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa0c591…
10-27 03:33:20	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x4d7ea1…
10-26 11:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	153	37¢	$57	0x664ee4…
10-26 08:32:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0xe361cd…
10-26 06:31:50	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	55	39¢	$21	0x31edcb…
10-26 06:23:29	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0x5b137f…
10-26 03:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0xcc8cca…
10-25 22:01:41	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xb75479…
10-25 17:06:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x728780…
10-25 16:10:44	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	50	33¢	$16	0x83f94e…
10-25 13:56:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0x689645…
10-25 12:29:32	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x91a4aa…
10-25 12:11:36	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x34b240…
10-25 12:11:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x74638c…
10-25 08:58:57	highest temperature in lucknow on october 27 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0xc794e2…
10-25 08:58:57	highest temperature in lucknow on october 27 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x18c8b8…
10-25 08:56:05	highest temperature in lucknow on october 27 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x5cded1…
10-25 08:56:05	highest temperature in lucknow on october 27 2026 30c	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0x5ae9c4…
10-25 04:31:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	31	31¢	$10	0x6a5604…
10-24 10:39:47	India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India	New Zealand	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xcd7b68…
10-24 10:10:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	14	25¢	$3	0x650788…
10-24 09:36:27	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 25?	Yes	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0xf309f6…
10-24 03:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x965c34…
10-24 03:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x86a5cf…
10-24 03:00:14	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x67eae9…
10-23 23:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0x6107c6…
10-23 13:37:15	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	74	2¢	$1	0x02965e…
10-23 13:36:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$101	0x21f1e5…