Outgoing-Probability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

969

lifetime

Volume

$6.92K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$19

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-12 03:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

95% 0% $-1

Politics

3% — —

Crypto

1% 0% $-3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No		+50	$18	38¢	$19	+$1	06-12 03:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	4	$227	150	150	+0	open	—	03-11 13:24
elon musk of tweets march 21 march 23 90 114	2	$200	100	100	+0	open	—	03-23 15:00
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 340 359	6	$193	170	170	+0	open	—	02-03 16:56
elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 40 64	2	$176	100	100	+0	open	—	03-25 15:23
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?	2	$172	100	100	+0	open	—	02-08 10:16
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 280 299	4	$168	134	134	+0	open	—	02-06 13:13
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 90 114	6	$157	208	158	+50	open	—	02-02 15:36
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?	3	$141	1,107	107	+1,000	open	—	01-10 05:56
elon musk of tweets january 19 january 21 90 114	3	$138	114	114	+0	open	—	01-22 00:25
highest temperature in lucknow on april 11 2026 35c	11	$131	130	29	+101	open	—	04-11 10:11
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 40 64	5	$102	200	100	+100	open	—	03-30 11:23
elon musk of tweets january 13 january 20 520 539	2	$98	68	68	+0	open	—	01-20 17:31
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 27?	1	$96	100	0	+100	open	—	04-27 08:11
highest temperature in lucknow on april 15 2026 39c	6	$95	116	0	+116	open	—	04-15 10:16
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 65 89	1	$93	100	0	+100	open	—	04-08 14:47
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 260 279	13	$93	235	235	+0	open	—	02-06 15:58
highest temperature in lucknow on april 6 2026 33corbelow	4	$90	100	0	+100	open	—	04-06 10:23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	9	$90	170	170	+0	open	—	04-25 09:08
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 360 379	1	$81	100	0	+100	open	—	03-24 12:46
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	3	$75	136	136	+0	open	—	01-06 16:06
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	6	$69	105	105	+0	open	—	02-04 07:15
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 220 239	3	$68	100	100	+0	open	—	03-30 11:19
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 260 279	3	$68	135	100	+35	open	—	04-07 15:41
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 40 64	3	$68	100	97	+3	open	—	04-05 20:42
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 200 219	2	$63	100	100	+0	open	—	03-05 19:23
highest temperature in lucknow on april 10 2026 33c	3	$62	87	24	+63	open	—	04-10 10:16
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 65 89	2	$62	70	70	+0	open	—	02-02 15:09
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$61	71	71	+0	open	—	01-30 10:21
elon musk of tweets january 27 february 3 360 379	10	$61	170	170	+0	open	—	02-03 16:44
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	6	$57	200	200	+0	open	—	03-05 19:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 03:21:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x0bd5ea…
06-08 09:54:19	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	No	BUY	52	3¢	$1	0xfdc42f…
05-29 16:59:34	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x3176b4…
05-29 16:23:17	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Rajasthan Royals	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x9c1985…
05-19 13:21:20	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x45a8a2…
05-19 12:32:08	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x2aaa42…
05-18 10:46:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x54a000…
05-17 07:03:48	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	41	23¢	$9	0xee756e…
05-17 05:14:48	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xef7057…
05-17 05:11:06	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x08520a…
05-15 17:34:56	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x208e08…
05-14 16:38:52	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xcb91c5…
05-14 16:38:13	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x61342a…
05-14 12:54:32	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x80c06a…
05-13 11:45:05	Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xddc89a…
05-10 13:44:02	Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants	Lucknow Super Giants	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xeafebf…
05-09 10:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x744c4a…
05-08 10:51:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x34e8ef…
05-07 14:09:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x266498…
05-03 08:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x48aed0…
05-02 04:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xf07833…
05-01 09:14:36	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xfcb478…
04-30 19:00:08	megaeth market cap fdv 1pt5b one day after launch 371 844 879 681	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x30a831…
04-28 10:49:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0x024078…
04-28 10:48:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0x187e04…
04-28 10:29:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x90ad13…
04-28 10:29:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0x9df6fa…
04-28 10:29:02	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x980be1…
04-28 10:28:58	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x2a95d2…
04-28 07:45:08	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x62b149…
04-28 06:15:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	3¢	$0	0xb4d81a…
04-28 06:15:26	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	3¢	$1	0x875d36…
04-28 06:15:26	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x1069da…
04-28 06:13:50	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xc0d4f6…
04-28 06:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0x86793a…
04-28 03:31:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on April 28?	Yes	BUY	13	19¢	$2	0xaeeac8…
04-28 01:33:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	11	38¢	$4	0x7cb7d5…
04-27 17:46:36	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd62a3b…
04-27 17:46:22	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x0cb4c6…
04-27 16:37:52	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	8¢	$2	0x2e2091…
04-27 16:36:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	8¢	$3	0x35fe01…
04-27 16:36:04	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	8¢	$3	0x1338b6…
04-27 15:50:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	8¢	$6	0x66d56e…
04-27 13:55:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	12	37¢	$5	0xaedd56…
04-27 13:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xad6373…
04-27 13:40:26	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 28?	Yes	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0xe2af9c…
04-27 11:35:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xfcb0fd…
04-27 08:11:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 27?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x2ccb51…
04-27 05:31:42	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on April 27?	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x33a465…
04-27 05:06:12	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	96	5¢	$5	0xa9776c…
04-27 00:46:56	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on April 27?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x51e787…
04-26 08:17:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x64b594…
04-26 06:37:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x0a3ca2…
04-26 06:36:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	15	17¢	$3	0xb12c8c…
04-26 05:38:06	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xae9952…
04-26 05:37:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0xa9f0bf…
04-26 05:37:08	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xff6483…
04-25 21:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	24	56¢	$14	0x0e1a7a…
04-25 21:58:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0xde3390…
04-25 21:02:52	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xbd40bd…
04-25 20:38:28	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xcf1c28…
04-25 16:18:40	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0xe88196…
04-25 16:18:10	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xa51de5…
04-25 16:17:46	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	2¢	$1	0x0a8ac2…
04-25 16:17:26	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	12¢	$12	0x6d4eab…
04-25 14:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or below on April 27?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xaa1e39…
04-25 09:08:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xc94b91…
04-25 08:14:16	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x6deb48…
04-25 02:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x3a9cfd…
04-25 01:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 25?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x42fec2…
04-24 18:13:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x72c275…
04-24 18:12:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	31¢	$11	0xdc02bc…
04-24 15:44:08	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	49	16¢	$8	0x770872…
04-24 10:00:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x905637…
04-24 08:43:40	highest temperature in lucknow on april 24 2026 41c	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xea0e70…
04-24 07:20:34	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0x03af10…
04-24 07:20:16	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	32	10¢	$3	0x8f5403…
04-24 07:18:26	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	SELL	48	9¢	$4	0xb5ebe1…
04-24 07:16:28	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 180 199	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xde3cca…
04-24 03:06:48	highest temperature in lucknow on april 24 2026 42c	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xc64307…
04-23 16:00:02	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	5¢	$6	0x7c6e48…
04-23 15:10:08	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xa3e0a7…
04-23 14:31:04	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0xb6efa3…
04-23 12:52:26	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0xd405a0…
04-23 12:45:40	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 16c	Yes	SELL	34	13¢	$4	0x20e566…
04-23 12:09:38	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	35	19¢	$7	0xeecb58…
04-23 08:46:50	highest temperature in lucknow on april 23 2026 42c	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x78fa11…
04-23 07:45:40	highest temperature in lucknow on april 23 2026 41c	Yes	BUY	18	17¢	$3	0xdc6539…
04-23 03:23:26	highest temperature in london on april 23 2026 17c	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xb36613…
04-22 10:16:32	highest temperature in lucknow on april 22 2026 42c	Yes	SELL	63	0¢	$0	0xa9b73e…
04-22 06:14:18	highest temperature in lucknow on april 22 2026 42c	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x405c67…
04-22 05:05:16	highest temperature in lucknow on april 22 2026 42c	Yes	BUY	15	18¢	$3	0xa738f1…
04-21 13:00:40	highest temperature in london on april 21 2026 12c	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xa1e628…
04-21 12:59:44	highest temperature in london on april 21 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x589501…
04-21 11:11:10	highest temperature in london on april 21 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0xf618ff…
04-21 11:11:10	highest temperature in london on april 21 2026 13c	Yes	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x5afbf0…
04-21 06:42:12	highest temperature in lucknow on april 21 2026 40c	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xc847ce…
04-21 06:42:00	highest temperature in lucknow on april 21 2026 40c	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xfdbf65…
04-20 18:46:16	highest temperature in lucknow on april 21 2026 41c	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x535985…
04-20 16:27:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	11¢	$6	0xb08c1f…