Realized P&L
-$64
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
13.5%
Resolved
6
Trades
2,769
lifetime
Volume
$13.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$74
14 positions
First seen
2026-02-10
last 06-30 17:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
79% 20% $-9
Other
20% 0% $-55
Crypto
1%
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 183 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +31 $24 90¢ $28 +$4 06-12 15:50
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +19 $17 100¢ $19 +$2 06-11 02:34
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? No +23 $3 50¢ $12 +$9 06-30 16:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +8 $4 70¢ $6 +$1 06-22 12:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +19 $3 12¢ $2 $-0 06-15 18:40
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -7 $-2 32¢ $-2 $-0 06-07 05:17
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 06-27 21:25
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +5 $1 20¢ $1 $-0 06-30 17:45
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +3 $1 26¢ $1 $-0 06-16 14:52
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes -1 $-0 42¢ $-0 +$0 06-23 10:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -16 $-4 $-0 +$4 06-15 13:48
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Yes -70 $-1 $-0 +$1 06-03 21:48
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +4 $3 $0 $-3 06-18 17:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +0 $2 17¢ $0 $-2 06-16 23:34