Twin-Expectation-Pay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

38.9%

Resolved

195

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$1.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-27

last 08-18 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

100% 31% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27?	1	$31	0	31	-31	Yes	$0	04-27 15:33
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?	2	$26	25	25	+0	No	+$6	06-25 18:10
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26?	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	$0	06-25 18:21
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?	2	$17	25	25	+0	Yes	-$2	06-25 18:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	2	$16	10	10	+0	open	—	05-02 18:19
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 12?	1	$16	24	0	+24	Yes	+$8	08-11 18:13
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?	1	$15	26	0	+26	Yes	+$10	07-15 18:02
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?	1	$15	35	0	+35	No	-$15	08-15 18:12
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28?	3	$15	37	14	+23	No	-$7	06-27 18:14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 10?	1	$14	22	0	+22	Yes	+$8	08-09 18:14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	1	$14	22	0	+22	No	-$14	08-10 18:02
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 1?	1	$14	24	0	+24	Yes	+$10	07-31 18:07
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21?	1	$14	20	0	+20	Yes	+$7	06-20 18:09
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 29?	1	$13	24	0	+24	No	-$13	04-28 18:03
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1?	1	$13	24	0	+24	Yes	+$11	04-30 16:09
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23?	1	$13	38	0	+38	Yes	+$25	06-22 18:03
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on May 3?	1	$13	23	0	+23	No	-$13	05-02 18:36
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?	1	$13	36	0	+36	Yes	+$23	07-14 18:05
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?	1	$11	20	0	+20	No	-$11	08-12 18:04
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?	1	$11	21	0	+21	Yes	+$10	07-07 18:09
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?	1	$11	24	0	+24	Yes	+$13	07-06 18:07
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10?	1	$11	23	0	+23	No	-$11	05-09 07:26
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?	1	$11	20	0	+20	Yes	+$10	07-08 18:07
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28?	1	$11	25	0	+25	No	-$11	06-27 18:11
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3?	1	$10	22	0	+22	Yes	+$12	07-02 18:13
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	+$10	06-18 18:11
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 19?	1	$10	21	0	+21	No	-$10	08-18 17:48
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?	1	$10	21	0	+21	Yes	+$11	08-13 18:09
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?	1	$10	21	0	+21	Yes	+$11	07-01 18:11
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?	1	$10	22	0	+22	Yes	+$12	06-29 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 17:49:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x2935bf…
08-18 17:48:57	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xf4db98…
08-18 17:48:28	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x6946d8…
08-18 17:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	21	16¢	$3	0x12c851…
08-16 18:04:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x987171…
08-16 18:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	18	43¢	$8	0xc01498…
08-16 18:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xb9d745…
08-15 18:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	73	1¢	$1	0x311d62…
08-15 18:13:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0xce5588…
08-15 18:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	35	42¢	$15	0xea50c3…
08-15 18:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0xd25e2f…
08-14 18:09:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$2	0x9c18c9…
08-14 18:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x0ba488…
08-14 18:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0xe95b0c…
08-14 18:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	26	27¢	$7	0xf683bf…
08-13 18:10:39	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xcda0b8…
08-13 18:10:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x98ad8e…
08-13 18:09:45	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xddce14…
08-13 18:09:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?	Yes	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x75eb4f…
08-12 18:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3816e7…
08-12 18:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xc19e2f…
08-12 18:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 13?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x648e77…
08-11 18:13:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x33b92d…
08-11 18:13:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0xf92f69…
08-11 18:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x2b3b1d…
08-10 18:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xe4d99d…
08-10 18:03:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x6eb1ac…
08-10 18:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	22	65¢	$14	0x5a8d7a…
08-09 18:15:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x174fd8…
08-09 18:15:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x0b3bda…
08-09 18:14:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	22	24¢	$5	0xcfb161…
08-09 18:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	22	64¢	$14	0xea544f…
08-02 18:12:03	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 3?	Yes	BUY	18	15¢	$3	0x38bc3e…
08-02 18:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 102-103°F on August 3?	Yes	BUY	19	34¢	$6	0x65fc8f…
08-02 18:11:09	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on August 3?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe66249…
07-31 18:08:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x9b8f96…
07-31 18:08:15	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x297f3b…
07-31 18:07:33	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	24	59¢	$14	0xac4908…
07-31 18:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 1?	Yes	BUY	24	23¢	$5	0xe8385c…
07-30 18:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0x9d4124…
07-30 18:08:59	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	21	46¢	$10	0xf574e5…
07-30 18:08:41	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0xb8f9e6…
07-29 18:09:38	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf7663a…
07-29 18:09:08	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x2016c4…
07-29 18:08:48	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$10	0xd1fbe1…
07-29 18:08:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0x4a2caa…
07-28 18:12:07	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x690993…
07-28 18:11:50	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xc4f7bd…
07-28 18:11:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	21	32¢	$7	0x93fe11…
07-28 18:11:08	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 29?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x58c8b9…
07-19 18:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x984917…
07-19 18:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf8fdf6…
07-19 18:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	22	37¢	$8	0x5a4ca3…
07-19 18:07:51	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 20?	Yes	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0xa7ee7e…
07-16 18:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 17?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf3aeaa…
07-16 18:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 17?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$1	0x805e67…
07-16 18:10:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 17?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x5da06a…
07-16 18:09:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 17?	Yes	BUY	21	45¢	$9	0x23b521…
07-15 18:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xc4a780…
07-15 18:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xc1e75a…
07-15 18:03:13	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x7abc91…
07-15 18:02:40	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 16?	Yes	BUY	26	59¢	$15	0x44a345…
07-14 18:06:14	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xbd422e…
07-14 18:05:19	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on July 15?	Yes	BUY	29	5¢	$1	0x961b8c…
07-14 18:05:01	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	36	36¢	$13	0x9ce714…
07-14 18:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0xf72cc4…
07-08 18:08:44	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 9?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd1aabf…
07-08 18:08:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x94cef4…
07-08 18:07:55	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x4d511a…
07-08 18:07:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x89f23d…
07-07 18:10:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 8?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2796f0…
07-07 18:10:28	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	21	36¢	$7	0xc8ea89…
07-07 18:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x3fb8f1…
07-07 18:09:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0xede5d1…
07-06 18:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa9c232…
07-06 18:08:17	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xc5d7ad…
07-06 18:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0x716d18…
07-06 18:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 7?	Yes	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0xdf06ad…
07-05 18:11:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 6?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x34eb15…
07-05 18:10:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xb53735…
07-05 18:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	21	29¢	$6	0xd3d419…
07-05 18:10:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 6?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x47ef25…
07-03 18:10:46	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 4?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x4ee4f2…
07-03 18:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x7defa5…
07-03 18:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0x0373c4…
07-03 18:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?	Yes	BUY	21	26¢	$5	0xb3844a…
07-02 18:14:29	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 3?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x4de5e8…
07-02 18:14:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x29ca4a…
07-02 18:13:26	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0x209f4e…
07-02 18:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	22	38¢	$8	0xa1803e…
07-01 18:21:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 2?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3f771b…
07-01 18:13:04	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	16	18¢	$3	0xff8bd2…
07-01 18:11:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x09d397…
07-01 18:11:04	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	21	28¢	$6	0x2fd8f9…
06-30 18:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 1?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x64eaf3…
06-30 18:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x309966…
06-30 18:13:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	21	40¢	$9	0xe3ac68…
06-30 18:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 1?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x3d329c…
06-29 18:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 30?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0x7d0b07…
06-29 18:06:13	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	47¢	$10	0xd8d49e…