Alarmed-Statute — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$345

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.4%

Resolved

179

Trades

371

lifetime

Volume

$1.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 08-31 18:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 33% -$110

Other

17% 16% -$87

Politics

5% 0% -$88

Sports

4% 0% -$58

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 21:00 UTC	8	$105	142	140	+2	Down	+$2	03-15 21:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 21:45 UTC	4	$96	80	79	+1	Up	-$4	03-15 21:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 20:15 UTC	6	$77	96	75	+21	Down	-$3	03-15 20:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 20:00 UTC	5	$67	128	60	+68	Down	+$13	03-15 20:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 20:45 UTC	4	$66	62	62	+1	Down	+$7	03-15 20:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 22:00 UTC	6	$63	78	77	+1	Down	-$17	03-15 22:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 19:15 UTC	10	$57	70	69	+1	Down	+$7	03-17 19:25
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	1	$50	88	0	+88	No	-$50	03-11 20:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 18:15 UTC	4	$47	41	40	+1	Up	+$7	03-15 18:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 21:00 UTC	8	$40	1,062	47	+1,015	Up	-$1	03-17 21:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 18:30 UTC	3	$38	63	42	+20	Down	-$1	03-15 18:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 19:30 UTC	7	$35	78	52	+25	Down	+$3	03-15 19:44
atp cerundo medvede 2026 03 23	2	$30	33	33	+0	Francisco Cerundolo	+$10	03-23 17:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 20:20 UTC	3	$28	28	21	+7	Up	+$7	03-12 20:23
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC	8	$25	34	34	+0	Up	+$1	03-17 19:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 19:15 UTC	4	$23	33	33	+0	Down	-$13	03-18 19:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 19:05 UTC	4	$23	20	20	+0	Down	+$3	03-11 19:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 19:40 UTC	6	$22	26	25	+0	Down	+$5	03-12 19:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-18 18:15 UTC	6	$22	32	32	+0	Down	+$0	03-18 18:20
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	4	$22	18	18	+0	Yes	$0	04-07 17:44
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	7	$21	4,504	18	+4,486	No	-$19	04-20 16:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 19:45 UTC	5	$21	32	27	+5	Up	+$3	03-15 19:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 21:30 UTC	4	$21	26	26	+0	Up	+$5	03-17 21:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-15 22:15 UTC	1	$20	32	0	+32	Up	-$20	03-15 22:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-17 18:40 UTC	3	$20	55	0	+55	Down	-$20	03-17 18:43
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	2	$20	206	170	+36	No	-$10	03-23 16:37
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$20	39	0	+39	Yes	-$20	04-23 16:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 20:45 UTC	4	$16	17	16	+0	Down	+$0	03-17 20:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-15 19:15 UTC	3	$14	23	10	+13	Up	-$2	03-15 19:22
atp augeral atmane 2026 03 23	3	$13	19	11	+8	Terence Atmane	+$3	03-23 18:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 18:18:43	Will CA Osasuna vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa38082…
08-31 18:16:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 18:15 UTC	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0xea7ebf…
08-31 18:15:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-31 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x2f3f3b…
08-31 18:01:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 18:00 UTC	Up	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x1f2fca…
08-31 18:01:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc10b34…
08-31 17:58:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:55 UTC	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x0f9016…
08-31 17:56:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xdb61c5…
08-31 17:56:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0d5eb9…
08-31 17:52:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:50 UTC	Down	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x4c64ef…
08-31 17:51:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x96b9b1…
08-31 17:51:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-31 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x2119e3…
08-31 17:47:39	wta navarro boisson 2026 08 30	Lois Boisson	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x28fb8e…
07-05 15:06:35	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xef710e…
07-02 20:37:35	Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$1	0x97c74d…
07-02 20:35:43	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team to advance	Algeria	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xc700a4…
07-02 20:34:58	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	No	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x9eb885…
07-02 20:33:37	Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x38308e…
07-02 18:41:53	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x5ac367…
07-02 18:37:26	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	No	SELL	73	3¢	$2	0x9b1f83…
07-02 18:34:08	taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	No	BUY	73	5¢	$3	0xaf1a82…
07-02 18:26:01	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xa37975…
07-02 18:25:08	Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	18¢	$1	0x896432…
06-23 19:30:17	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 goals marcus rashford gte1	Yes	BUY	11	25¢	$3	0x9c7bf6…
06-07 16:34:34	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	52	10¢	$5	0x93928b…
05-30 17:53:19	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3807b1…
05-30 17:39:26	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	SELL	23	23¢	$5	0x088f3a…
05-30 16:30:48	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xcd12bd…
05-30 16:18:01	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x96191a…
05-30 15:10:51	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	9	38¢	$3	0xcdd82d…
05-21 21:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x6d1061…
05-21 21:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5a3312…
05-21 21:40:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x7a06f0…
05-21 21:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x24b3f2…
05-20 18:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xe1c14b…
05-20 18:01:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6a0a7a…
05-20 18:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0xd81f12…
05-20 18:00:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x4359e5…
04-23 16:48:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3fddc9…
04-23 16:24:42	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	9¢	$1	0x7a9313…
04-23 16:24:36	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$1	0x465069…
04-23 16:15:58	Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0xadfd12…
04-23 16:14:44	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x5a25a2…
04-23 16:08:20	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x6d46bb…
04-23 16:06:00	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x281c43…
04-23 16:05:52	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x0cb946…
04-23 16:05:46	Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x2688e4…
04-23 16:05:38	Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xb7153d…
04-21 18:09:40	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during ncaa national champions remarks on april 21	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x722cbc…
04-21 18:08:48	will trump say nba during ncaa national champions remarks on april 21	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$2	0x9ccb5c…
04-21 17:56:08	bitcoin above 70k on april 23	No	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x938f59…
04-21 17:56:02	bitcoin above 68k on april 23	No	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xe5544f…
04-21 17:55:56	bitcoin above 66k on april 23	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xe07c12…
04-21 17:55:06	bitcoin above 72k on april 22	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xf4d2d9…
04-21 17:55:00	bitcoin above 70k on april 22	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc17293…
04-21 17:54:54	bitcoin above 68k on april 22	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc66ad0…
04-21 17:37:14	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	214	1¢	$2	0xa3a62e…
04-21 17:36:40	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x56b100…
04-21 17:17:38	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 ala	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9f06f5…
04-21 17:17:30	lal rea ala 2026 04 21 draw	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x9537d8…
04-20 16:42:40	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0xf5620b…
04-20 16:41:12	Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x518365…
04-20 16:40:04	Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	3¢	$2	0x3d67e7…
04-20 16:39:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x8bc2eb…
04-20 16:38:02	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,670	0¢	$3	0x6f3608…
04-20 16:33:58	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x158d15…
04-20 16:32:20	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0xd4ba12…
04-13 21:08:35	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 14 2026	Yes	BUY	121	3¢	$3	0x779549…
04-12 18:19:55	Military action against Iran ends by April 13, 2026?	No	BUY	124	2¢	$3	0x4a96c1…
04-12 16:58:53	Military action against Iran ends by April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xb53dca…
04-12 16:57:55	Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	182	1¢	$2	0x21a25c…
04-12 16:57:43	Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026?	No	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xd4dc10…
04-12 16:57:35	Military action against Iran ends by April 21, 2026?	No	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x95a783…
04-12 16:57:29	Military action against Iran ends by April 20, 2026?	No	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x6e83c8…
04-12 16:57:17	Military action against Iran ends by April 18, 2026?	No	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x49204e…
04-12 16:57:11	Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x5c3729…
04-12 16:56:43	Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?	No	BUY	262	1¢	$3	0xf4eed3…
04-12 16:56:33	Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?	No	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0xff052f…
04-12 16:56:23	Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?	No	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x6c7122…
04-12 16:56:07	Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	483	1¢	$5	0x0d17ce…
04-12 16:44:57	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0xd698a5…
04-12 16:43:31	Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	854	0¢	$3	0xef4e66…
04-07 17:45:23	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	10¢	$6	0x819dbb…
04-07 17:45:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	640	1¢	$4	0xb40c2c…
04-07 17:44:29	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	58¢	$10	0x24efd7…
04-04 20:53:27	ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xcc1dfe…
04-04 20:53:19	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xfb8f24…
04-04 20:53:05	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18	5¢	$1	0xc5332a…
04-01 17:43:57	ukraine strikes another tanker in black sea by march 31 2026	No	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xb466de…
04-01 17:29:35	wta pegula putints 2026 04 01	Yulia Putintseva	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x783707…
04-01 17:11:53	wta pegula putints 2026 04 01	Yulia Putintseva	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x167617…
04-01 17:10:13	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x009d4f…
03-30 16:36:59	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	26¢	$8	0xd54592…
03-29 20:11:38	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xf60ae0…
03-29 20:04:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	173	1¢	$1	0x7b1d2f…
03-29 19:29:38	atp lehecka sinner 2026 03 29 first set total 8pt5	Under	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x626fd3…
03-29 19:13:42	will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 23 2026 964	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9c04ef…
03-29 17:56:18	bkligend bar uni 2026 03 29	Unicaja	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa857ef…
03-26 20:54:57	chatgpt full outage by march 31	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xdb245d…
03-26 20:35:37	uef ita nir 2026 03 26 nir	Yes	SELL	41	5¢	$2	0x0ae0eb…
03-26 19:52:23	uef ita nir 2026 03 26 nir	Yes	BUY	27	5¢	$1	0x3058dc…