Near-Rain — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$404

Unrealized P&L

-$252

Hit rate

94.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

379 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$304

$16.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

$342

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-07 22:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 62 days

Categories

Politics

79% 68% +$635

Other

20% 76% +$22

Sports

1% 40% -$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+260	$150	61¢	$158	+$8	11-07 22:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	+110	$100	97¢	$106	+$6	11-05 09:21
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	+156	$50	36¢	$55	+$5	11-06 22:54
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+622	$202	3¢	$16	-$186	11-05 09:24
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+96	$26	5¢	$4	-$21	11-05 09:24
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	+77	$50	1¢	$1	-$49	10-28 22:20
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+18	$16	1¢	$0	-$15	10-30 08:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$1.4K	790	790	+0	No	+$150	03-25 07:43
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	6	$1.2K	1,179	1,179	+0	Yes	-$496	04-07 23:31
will voter turnout be 7780 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election 448	6	$758	527	527	+0	Yes	+$258	04-15 14:21
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	4	$757	817	576	+240	No	-$3	04-15 19:43
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	4	$584	437	437	+0	open	—	10-22 11:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$510	622	0	+622	No	+$112	03-25 07:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$422	223	223	+0	Yes	+$22	03-01 10:15
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150 838	6	$419	250	250	+0	No	+$59	07-31 21:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	4	$360	218	218	+0	No	+$68	07-06 07:22
tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	10	$354	203	203	+0	Yes	+$36	07-20 12:34
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	6	$347	228	228	+0	No	+$98	10-28 21:38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$345	432	432	+0	No	-$337	04-29 09:35
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	7	$345	206	206	+0	No	+$29	06-16 14:46
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	19	$305	564	316	+248	No	-$4	05-28 13:55
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$255	290	0	+290	Yes	+$35	04-07 23:35
will voter turnout be 80 in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	2	$250	350	350	+0	No	+$190	04-12 15:38
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	5	$247	383	0	+383	No	-$247	09-22 10:18
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	5	$242	145	145	+0	No	+$45	09-29 07:18
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	11	$237	236	236	+0	Yes	-$80	07-12 21:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$233	133	133	+0	No	+$33	04-27 11:35
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	3	$212	113	113	+0	Yes	+$13	07-14 09:18
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	5	$210	299	199	+101	No	+$21	10-29 16:28
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$210	111	111	+0	No	+$10	06-09 10:32
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	5	$205	91	144	-53	No	+$8	05-19 10:47
iran full airspace closure by august 15	4	$204	119	119	+0	No	+$31	08-13 22:49
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	7	$202	622	0	+622	open	—	11-05 09:24
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	2	$196	227	14	+212	Yes	+$37	06-17 23:02
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$184	144	144	+0	Yes	-$81	04-07 22:43
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	13	$174	304	65	+239	Yes	+$123	09-15 10:26
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$167	310	0	+310	Yes	+$143	02-26 13:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 22:35:24	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	260	58¢	$150	0x9024ec…
11-06 22:54:27	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0xca4bd5…
11-05 09:24:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x515eec…
11-05 09:24:25	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0xfde2e5…
11-05 09:21:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xea1e10…
10-30 08:24:27	Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	87¢	$16	0x0a8c0a…
10-30 08:13:30	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$16	0x208bb0…
10-29 16:28:55	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	101	73¢	$74	0xbb3a9c…
10-29 10:58:32	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0x6a9d04…
10-28 22:21:04	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x3c20bf…
10-28 22:20:53	Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xcb957a…
10-28 21:38:19	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	208	98¢	$204	0x146cf2…
10-24 21:34:44	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x462790…
10-23 22:55:26	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	118	68¢	$80	0xef4c92…
10-23 22:34:44	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0x798262…
10-22 21:54:03	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	36¢	$13	0xa7b36c…
10-22 21:49:56	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x345f07…
10-22 21:49:38	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x6f7879…
10-22 11:06:30	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	172	88¢	$152	0x497c4f…
10-21 21:29:05	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	78¢	$19	0xe7c36d…
10-21 21:11:12	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xd19f82…
10-12 10:14:32	Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x546d81…
10-12 10:03:20	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x9d5feb…
10-12 10:01:49	Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x8df760…
10-12 09:59:35	Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xe84d4b…
10-12 09:58:52	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xb03d87…
10-12 09:58:11	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x7a189d…
10-05 15:10:50	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x5c8c1b…
10-05 07:23:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	69	100¢	$69	0x8e573b…
10-02 20:28:14	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	29¢	$12	0x087323…
10-02 07:25:53	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x021248…
10-02 07:21:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	70	25¢	$18	0xb82101…
10-01 21:08:59	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x7997c4…
10-01 21:07:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x8c46a6…
10-01 21:00:15	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x0e2a4b…
10-01 20:58:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	54¢	$49	0xdef44a…
10-01 14:38:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x67f2fe…
10-01 14:26:59	russia ukraine peace talks by december 31 2026 20260609012542189 588	No	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0x57abef…
10-01 13:58:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0x4e1ab7…
09-30 11:06:21	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	28	55¢	$15	0x8c9f59…
09-30 10:13:39	russia ukraine peace talks by october 31 2026	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xfcecbc…
09-29 07:18:15	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	145	99¢	$143	0x17c2eb…
09-24 11:36:30	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	35¢	$11	0xdd845f…
09-24 11:33:35	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	234	5¢	$12	0x986659…
09-24 11:29:23	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x68f794…
09-24 11:26:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xfbf99b…
09-24 11:26:12	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x5ac73b…
09-24 11:25:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	114	10¢	$11	0x6c624a…
09-22 10:18:22	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	111	81¢	$90	0x8b6b1b…
09-22 08:22:18	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x1b2c66…
09-22 07:44:31	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x9c18c0…
09-21 07:26:47	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	181	0¢	$0	0xd49989…
09-19 20:11:27	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	25	38¢	$10	0x1b71c9…
09-19 13:53:21	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	77¢	$40	0xdfab32…
09-19 13:52:51	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	98	5¢	$5	0x3d0289…
09-19 13:52:26	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0x3d06e2…
09-18 21:27:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0x1f9f7b…
09-18 09:54:52	Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	BUY	95	42¢	$40	0xe70689…
09-17 21:12:01	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	26	66¢	$17	0xbe6d4f…
09-17 20:19:39	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	124	20¢	$25	0xabf080…
09-17 20:12:27	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x6f20a5…
09-16 20:39:27	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	7¢	$7	0x162d73…
09-16 15:13:47	Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x8d3cb3…
09-16 07:54:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xf02070…
09-15 10:26:31	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	77¢	$35	0x875190…
09-15 10:25:55	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	81¢	$35	0xa00681…
09-14 22:15:21	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 18 2026	Yes	BUY	43	83¢	$36	0x54285e…
09-14 22:14:57	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	89¢	$36	0x560967…
09-13 22:39:03	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 18 2026	Yes	BUY	25	77¢	$20	0xeb517b…
09-13 22:35:31	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	37¢	$20	0xdceb9a…
09-11 13:48:31	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 18 2026	Yes	BUY	73	80¢	$58	0x722f63…
09-11 13:34:37	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x5dd50e…
09-11 13:30:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x76c33b…
09-11 11:20:19	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x9ec9d6…
09-10 22:37:19	Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0x07c18c…
09-10 22:35:51	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	214	28¢	$60	0xd84efd…
09-10 22:12:57	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	82¢	$10	0x98c131…
09-10 15:12:52	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0x566e5a…
09-10 08:16:13	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0xa30f76…
09-03 14:41:58	Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x3013ba…
09-03 14:41:09	Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x05235c…
09-02 21:36:19	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0xb1a5ad…
09-02 21:35:00	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x487bd4…
08-31 12:02:19	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159 758	Yes	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x0ffae0…
08-31 12:00:15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x1ebb22…
08-27 11:59:04	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0x7f9622…
08-26 22:52:49	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	89¢	$19	0xcc3417…
08-26 22:51:40	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159	Yes	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0x1d49f4…
08-26 22:35:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	292	23¢	$67	0x213e3b…
08-25 21:56:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	85	21¢	$18	0x4f6341…
08-25 21:44:24	Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	39	21¢	$8	0x977327…
08-25 14:44:15	Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	Yes	BUY	30	53¢	$16	0x333c01…
08-25 14:39:04	Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x66b15a…
08-25 14:36:42	Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	Yes	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0x36aad2…
08-25 14:13:13	Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$6	0xcde5b5…
08-25 13:24:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	207	24¢	$50	0x514a7b…
08-25 11:39:51	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xe46eb5…
08-25 11:39:40	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x58e03e…
08-25 11:38:31	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x50c155…
08-25 11:37:28	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by september 15 2026 159	Yes	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0xa2b3ad…