Broken-Doing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$477

Unrealized P&L

-$39

Hit rate

74.9%

Resolved

789

Trades

1,697

lifetime

Volume

$14.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$95

11 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 10-26 21:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Other

63% 59% -$253

Politics

28% 62% -$81

Sports

7% 49% -$87

Tech

1% 40% -$45

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$7

Crypto

0% 50% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+33	$20	64¢	$21	+$1	10-07 21:00
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	+33	$22	56¢	$19	-$3	09-25 16:00
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+33	$20	48¢	$16	-$4	10-07 03:00
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	+34	$22	26¢	$9	-$14	09-29 19:00
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+10	$6	67¢	$7	+$1	10-19 00:02
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+11	$6	52¢	$6	$0	10-25 23:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	+9	$6	59¢	$6	-$1	10-25 23:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+11	$6	48¢	$5	-$1	10-25 23:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+10	$6	46¢	$5	-$1	10-25 23:02
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	+10	$2	20¢	$2	+$0	10-21 00:03
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+29	$19	6¢	$2	-$17	10-04 23:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	19	$229	188	188	+0	Yes	+$7	08-03 22:24
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	21	$207	169	169	+0	No	+$9	07-26 20:39
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	21	$159	152	152	+0	open	—	07-26 20:39
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	4	$112	82	82	+0	No	+$13	08-13 14:08
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	4	$101	70	70	+0	No	+$10	09-27 20:08
Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	5	$96	71	71	+0	No	+$8	10-06 01:56
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	13	$94	82	82	+0	open	—	07-26 20:39
Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	5	$92	69	59	+10	open	—	10-19 00:02
italy senate approves nuclear power bill by august 31	10	$86	68	68	+0	No	+$6	07-13 18:16
Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	4	$71	64	36	+28	open	—	10-07 21:00
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	3	$70	64	32	+31	Yes	-$19	09-28 14:00
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	14	$69	110	110	+0	Yes	-$47	07-24 15:16
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	2	$64	44	44	+0	No	+$6	07-28 17:58
russia ukraine peace talks by september 30 2026 20260609012542188	2	$64	47	47	+0	No	+$6	08-08 13:58
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	2	$64	48	48	+0	No	+$6	09-16 14:40
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	13	$62	45	45	+0	No	+$4	05-19 22:23
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	4	$61	46	46	+0	No	+$4	08-21 01:26
will republicans win any senate or governors election in a biden trump state	8	$59	90	90	+0	open	—	07-24 15:16
will xauusd reach 4600 in august 2026	2	$58	43	43	+0	Yes	+$6	08-13 08:14
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	2	$58	43	43	+0	Yes	+$5	08-12 07:24
will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741053	4	$58	39	39	+0	No	+$7	08-09 22:14
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?	3	$57	41	41	+0	Yes	+$7	08-11 12:50
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	2	$57	37	37	+0	No	+$13	09-20 19:40
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?	5	$57	37	37	+0	No	+$17	07-14 12:30
will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	2	$57	43	43	+0	No	+$4	08-18 14:16
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	08-21 21:22
will astralis qualify to stage 3 at iem cologne major 2026	2	$56	47	47	+0	No	+$37	06-08 13:53
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?	3	$56	41	41	+0	No	+$4	08-13 15:00
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	3	$56	42	42	+0	open	—	09-20 00:18
Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?	3	$54	39	39	+0	open	—	09-18 01:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 21:01:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xbd0f8b…
10-26 21:01:54	Will Big Walk win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xd51236…
10-26 20:24:23	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$11	0x401fde…
10-25 23:02:15	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xbd659b…
10-25 23:02:14	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between -0.3% and -0.1%?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x352273…
10-25 23:02:11	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x6bbfab…
10-25 23:02:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x0b29ef…
10-25 23:02:06	Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x5bd2f5…
10-25 23:02:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xd6fb7d…
10-25 23:02:02	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x0c3a27…
10-25 23:02:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x3c8cbc…
10-25 22:58:18	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	SELL	18	82¢	$15	0x6aed2d…
10-25 22:24:23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	SELL	16	85¢	$14	0xc158fb…
10-25 22:24:20	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	34	81¢	$28	0xfaf392…
10-23 20:38:20	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	80¢	$9	0xcdb5e0…
10-21 00:03:50	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xa5f9bf…
10-21 00:03:45	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x92e4be…
10-21 00:03:42	Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x919f31…
10-19 00:02:36	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x627df4…
10-19 00:02:35	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x49a353…
10-19 00:02:33	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Audio Design at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x6a06b6…
10-19 00:02:29	Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x4e87a7…
10-19 00:02:27	Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x597e13…
10-19 00:02:26	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x70c34b…
10-19 00:02:23	Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x1da99f…
10-19 00:02:20	Will Northern Ireland win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x931734…
10-18 10:42:15	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xef835c…
10-18 04:04:15	Will the Bank of Korea hold at the November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	70¢	$24	0xa4f39e…
10-16 13:28:16	Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	No	SELL	22	73¢	$16	0xb127a4…
10-16 11:00:58	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0xea1224…
10-16 08:00:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0x2f0843…
10-16 07:50:15	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	74¢	$24	0x3bbead…
10-15 09:00:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	34	60¢	$20	0xf3961a…
10-15 08:18:16	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xd56091…
10-12 03:00:57	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x66fde6…
10-11 07:06:15	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	No	SELL	11	73¢	$8	0xe063c4…
10-11 00:00:51	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	32	61¢	$20	0x01192d…
10-10 02:00:41	No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	31	63¢	$20	0xe7ebf1…
10-09 14:42:15	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	SELL	31	73¢	$22	0x187cca…
10-09 13:02:13	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xb0ad4a…
10-07 21:00:47	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	No	BUY	28	69¢	$20	0x6460e4…
10-07 21:00:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0xd25f45…
10-07 03:00:50	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x3ca4fe…
10-07 02:00:45	Will Brazil's Q3 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.0% and 0.2%?	No	BUY	31	63¢	$20	0xb08a1b…
10-06 15:04:17	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	No	SELL	38	64¢	$24	0xf6d447…
10-06 08:30:13	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	No	SELL	31	77¢	$24	0xd19c0a…
10-06 01:56:14	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0xa54a63…
10-05 17:02:20	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	73¢	$22	0xe5fc26…
10-05 17:01:07	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	No	BUY	31	62¢	$19	0x8f25f7…
10-05 10:58:20	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	SELL	36	74¢	$27	0xce658e…
10-04 23:00:50	Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	BUY	29	64¢	$19	0x143522…
10-04 17:01:13	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x7adc80…
10-04 16:12:20	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	36	73¢	$26	0x914059…
10-03 10:56:20	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0xbdd694…
10-03 08:22:20	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0xab63c8…
10-02 13:01:09	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	61¢	$18	0xf4ce78…
10-02 01:01:00	Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	No	BUY	22	85¢	$18	0x5d0850…
10-02 01:00:53	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	62¢	$18	0xbc7bb9…
10-01 23:30:15	Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	No	SELL	37	78¢	$29	0x545822…
10-01 16:04:17	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	SELL	32	75¢	$24	0x1025a4…
09-30 22:00:54	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 15	No	BUY	36	63¢	$23	0x6d7840…
09-30 21:22:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	33	75¢	$24	0x186393…
09-30 03:00:45	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	36	63¢	$22	0xec9259…
09-30 02:08:15	Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?	No	SELL	35	70¢	$24	0xdbbc70…
09-29 19:00:47	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	BUY	34	66¢	$22	0xf9e7fc…
09-29 06:00:41	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x550cb1…
09-28 22:00:50	pakistan military action against afghanistan by october 15 2026 20260925	No	BUY	34	66¢	$22	0x818e11…
09-28 18:00:48	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x24a5aa…
09-28 14:00:47	Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	31	71¢	$22	0xfb6801…
09-28 00:02:14	Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?	No	SELL	36	63¢	$23	0xd945a0…
09-27 20:08:15	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	No	SELL	35	81¢	$28	0xa4c87a…
09-27 15:32:15	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x73b7da…
09-27 15:30:17	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	No	SELL	36	83¢	$30	0xf34fb2…
09-27 15:04:15	Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	SELL	33	72¢	$24	0xf3cf59…
09-27 04:00:44	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	35	65¢	$23	0x379a53…
09-27 03:48:15	Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	No	SELL	32	79¢	$25	0x9d6be1…
09-26 19:00:44	Will Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x5b99c2…
09-26 11:00:45	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	33	68¢	$22	0xfda5b5…
09-26 11:00:42	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	No	BUY	35	64¢	$22	0x45e150…
09-26 10:00:54	Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	34	66¢	$22	0x701eef…
09-26 07:12:15	Will $LAPTOP dip to $0.05 by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	32	68¢	$22	0xe98e88…
09-26 04:32:15	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	No	SELL	38	70¢	$26	0x6598c7…
09-26 00:32:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	70¢	$24	0x976e72…
09-26 00:24:17	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	No	SELL	35	79¢	$28	0x62916c…
09-25 16:00:51	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	33	66¢	$22	0x272a63…
09-25 11:01:03	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	35	65¢	$23	0xd42e00…
09-25 10:08:17	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	36	72¢	$26	0xe57867…
09-24 20:01:02	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	No	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x7a0d75…
09-24 10:00:47	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	BUY	34	66¢	$23	0xa65d6f…
09-24 09:24:15	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	15	68¢	$10	0xc9dbcf…
09-24 04:22:17	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xe1ca5d…
09-24 04:20:15	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	SELL	34	76¢	$26	0xabde23…
09-23 23:38:16	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	24	67¢	$16	0xaf3a5f…
09-23 06:00:53	Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?	No	BUY	32	69¢	$22	0xd265e6…
09-22 23:26:16	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	SELL	37	70¢	$26	0xc92179…
09-22 19:01:06	US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0xfd65b2…
09-22 11:38:16	Will Iran target an Arab country by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	75¢	$23	0xa9f536…
09-22 08:00:52	Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	No	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0xa2a3cc…
09-22 07:58:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	34	72¢	$24	0xafbf6e…
09-22 04:00:55	Will Hungary win 2026-27 Nations League Group B2?	No	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0xa5a1c5…