Specific-Collision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.77K

Unrealized P&L

+$245

Hit rate

85.5%

Resolved

134

Trades

417

lifetime

Volume

$79.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$192

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-17

last 11-01 12:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

81% 95% -$491

Politics

9% 50% +$261

Sports

4% 0% -$1,660

Tech

3% 0% -$615

Crypto

2% 75% -$263

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No		+0	-$245	86¢	$0	+$245	07-14 09:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on August 21?	3	$2.2K	1,127	1,127	+0	No	+$4	08-21 03:52
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$2.2K	1,107	1,107	+0	No	+$4	10-23 05:15
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	14	$2.1K	1,558	1,558	+0	open	—	07-24 02:45
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	29	$2.0K	1,226	1,226	+0	open	—	06-09 00:47
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	4	$2.0K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	07-14 09:46
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.9K	1,389	1,389	+0	No	-$312	07-16 04:00
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	4	$1.8K	1,038	1,038	+0	No	+$97	05-25 11:32
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	4	$1.7K	850	850	+0	No	+$4	10-26 04:48
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	20	$1.6K	1,698	1,698	+0	No	-$357	06-16 19:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$1.5K	1,015	1,015	+0	No	+$193	05-11 06:14
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	3	$1.4K	701	701	+0	No	+$2	10-29 15:14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	5	$1.3K	677	677	+0	open	—	11-01 12:54
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	3	$1.1K	1,116	0	+1,116	No	+$4	10-26 06:31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,108	0	+1,108	No	+$2	10-23 11:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 11?	1	$1.1K	1,106	0	+1,106	No	+$1	08-11 05:50
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C or higher on August 10?	4	$1.1K	1,105	0	+1,105	No	+$2	08-10 03:08
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 7?	1	$1.1K	1,102	0	+1,102	No	+$1	08-07 06:48
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,101	0	+1,101	No	+$1	10-16 06:34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 15?	1	$1.1K	1,100	0	+1,100	No	+$1	10-15 09:41
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?	3	$1.1K	1,099	0	+1,099	Yes	+$2	10-14 07:42
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	19	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Yes	-$259	06-23 02:52
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on September 16?	1	$1.1K	1,068	0	+1,068	No	+$1	09-15 03:19
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 14?	2	$1.1K	1,067	0	+1,067	No	+$2	09-14 07:53
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	46	$1.1K	2,831	0	+2,831	Yes	-$1,065	06-09 12:16
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 12?	1	$1.1K	1,065	0	+1,065	Yes	+$1	09-12 10:14
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$1.1K	1,096	0	+1,096	Yes	+$37	07-24 02:52
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 28?	1	$1.0K	1,016	0	+1,016	No	+$1	09-28 10:00
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$995	500	500	+0	No	+$4	03-29 14:57
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	23	$993	690	690	+0	No	-$5	06-01 12:10
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 17?	3	$970	971	0	+971	No	+$1	08-17 03:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 12:55:27	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	300	100¢	$299	0x869f2e…
11-01 12:54:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	288	100¢	$287	0x346845…
11-01 09:11:24	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0x9bfb20…
11-01 09:11:03	Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	166	99¢	$165	0x1635a3…
11-01 09:05:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0x83d0a3…
11-01 09:05:16	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa5b8fe…
11-01 08:57:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	SELL	389	100¢	$388	0x447d8b…
10-31 07:57:25	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$39	0x6bc4db…
10-31 07:57:06	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	69	99¢	$68	0x2bc295…
10-31 07:56:31	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	314	100¢	$313	0xb9d9e2…
10-31 07:56:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	300	99¢	$298	0x7f3119…
10-31 07:55:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	343	100¢	$342	0xf4c103…
10-31 07:55:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb8cd62…
10-30 05:49:37	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	703	100¢	$701	0xdf85b2…
10-29 15:14:17	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	701	100¢	$701	0x45dc41…
10-29 05:00:28	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	377	100¢	$376	0x6b38d2…
10-29 04:58:34	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	SELL	293	100¢	$292	0x608bc3…
10-28 08:07:13	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	225	100¢	$225	0x2dc080…
10-28 08:05:55	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	68	100¢	$67	0xa34799…
10-28 07:58:56	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	SELL	420	89¢	$375	0x43009e…
10-28 05:44:01	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	343	100¢	$342	0x1e0ebb…
10-28 05:43:14	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	358	100¢	$357	0xcd76a9…
10-28 05:34:25	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	420	100¢	$418	0x05a400…
10-26 06:31:14	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	916	100¢	$913	0x3398a0…
10-26 06:28:14	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x042fab…
10-26 06:28:03	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd033dd…
10-26 04:48:48	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	850	100¢	$848	0x1e78b5…
10-24 23:38:56	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	265	100¢	$265	0x9c0bfd…
10-24 16:02:09	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0xd2268e…
10-24 16:01:42	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x54bdf6…
10-24 16:01:24	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	620	99¢	$616	0x47bb2c…
10-24 16:00:56	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$264	0xaf7ffb…
10-23 11:02:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,108	100¢	$1,106	0x64caa3…
10-23 05:15:24	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	1,107	100¢	$1,106	0x2059b0…
10-21 10:26:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1,107	99¢	$1,101	0x2ab28d…
10-16 06:34:46	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	1,101	100¢	$1,100	0x0913ff…
10-15 09:41:47	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 15?	No	BUY	1,100	100¢	$1,099	0x13dee7…
10-14 07:42:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xad0633…
10-14 07:41:16	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	510	100¢	$509	0x7f949d…
10-14 07:40:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	554	100¢	$553	0x7ed11f…
10-12 07:01:04	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 13?	No	BUY	215	100¢	$215	0x3eebf5…
10-12 06:58:17	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 13?	No	BUY	393	100¢	$393	0xd7e4ae…
10-12 06:52:11	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x0acb6f…
10-12 06:52:04	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	110	98¢	$109	0xca44ac…
10-12 06:51:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd04eb3…
10-12 06:51:52	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xf48c4d…
10-12 06:48:20	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on October 13?	No	BUY	215	100¢	$215	0xc0912e…
10-08 02:44:56	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 9?	No	BUY	242	100¢	$242	0x04b9d5…
10-08 02:44:38	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 9?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x3663e8…
10-08 02:43:19	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on October 9?	No	BUY	415	100¢	$415	0x487484…
10-08 02:42:58	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 9?	No	BUY	415	100¢	$415	0x9b243e…
10-05 10:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xcf702a…
10-05 10:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	46	100¢	$45	0x8efb3e…
10-05 10:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	126	100¢	$125	0x626c2a…
10-05 10:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x5a9610…
10-05 10:41:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x33b121…
10-05 09:23:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	410	100¢	$410	0x2bcab6…
10-05 09:22:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 5?	Yes	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0x0467a3…
10-05 09:01:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	405	100¢	$403	0x7e4f88…
10-05 08:48:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on October 6?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0xc9daae…
10-05 08:44:20	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 6?	No	BUY	202	100¢	$201	0x99ef1e…
10-02 09:31:02	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 3?	No	BUY	906	100¢	$905	0x4ca55b…
10-02 09:26:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on October 3?	No	BUY	183	100¢	$183	0xd04244…
09-30 08:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 30?	No	BUY	855	100¢	$854	0xfeabdd…
09-29 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 29?	No	BUY	285	100¢	$285	0xfa5c53…
09-29 08:31:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 29?	No	BUY	241	100¢	$241	0xf30080…
09-29 08:31:23	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 29?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x4c67a1…
09-29 08:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x12bed7…
09-29 08:29:11	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$27	0x2455cb…
09-29 08:29:06	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x716d2b…
09-29 08:05:00	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 30?	No	BUY	233	100¢	$233	0x1b8aa2…
09-28 10:03:08	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 29?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xbe27aa…
09-28 10:00:50	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 28?	No	BUY	1,016	100¢	$1,015	0x5bfaf3…
09-26 11:33:09	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 26?	No	BUY	338	100¢	$338	0xb268a0…
09-26 11:32:15	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x100b03…
09-26 11:32:05	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 26?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x5d23b6…
09-26 11:31:57	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	489	100¢	$488	0xe57238…
09-24 06:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 24?	No	BUY	228	100¢	$228	0x90f802…
09-24 06:32:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 24?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x686cd6…
09-24 06:25:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 24?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0x6971e3…
09-24 06:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 24?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x183ca5…
09-24 06:21:08	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x05037f…
09-24 06:08:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 24?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x7cf6a2…
09-24 06:05:35	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 24?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x97067d…
09-23 03:43:29	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 24?	No	BUY	212	100¢	$212	0x708b48…
09-23 03:36:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 23?	No	BUY	68	99¢	$68	0xf3a417…
09-23 03:35:34	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 23?	No	BUY	793	100¢	$792	0x45e767…
09-21 07:09:56	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 22?	No	BUY	531	100¢	$530	0xbb8cfd…
09-21 07:05:44	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 22?	No	BUY	541	100¢	$540	0xd43a15…
09-18 10:28:25	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 19?	No	BUY	705	100¢	$704	0x4ec600…
09-17 07:19:06	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 18?	No	BUY	365	100¢	$365	0x15031f…
09-17 07:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 17?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x8f1ea5…
09-17 07:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 17?	No	BUY	595	100¢	$594	0x575c01…
09-17 07:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 17?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x08f667…
09-15 03:19:52	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on September 16?	No	BUY	1,068	100¢	$1,067	0xce5118…
09-14 07:53:18	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 14?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xb58ef2…
09-14 07:52:58	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 14?	No	BUY	1,015	100¢	$1,013	0x97e6c9…
09-12 10:14:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	1,065	100¢	$1,064	0xe11e5b…
09-10 15:11:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on September 11?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xedbc35…
09-10 15:11:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or higher on September 11?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb5bee4…