Orange-Inflation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

279

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$3.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-31 17:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 230 days

Categories

Other

97% 100% +$5

Politics

3% 80% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-14 14:27
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$24	24	+24	No	-$24	05-15 05:32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-13 06:18
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on May 12?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-12 07:45
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on May 11?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-11 11:50
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 10?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-10 09:40
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C or higher on May 9?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-09 09:35
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-08 13:17
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 8?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-08 06:47
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 17:07
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-07 06:31
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 15:27
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on May 5?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 11:47
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-05 02:53
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	05-03 15:45
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-04 15:59
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 2?	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	05-02 13:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$1	04-12 02:34
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-08 10:28
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$22	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 07:07
highest temperature in wuhan on april 5 2026 27corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-05 09:19
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 3 2026 23c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-03 16:30
highest temperature in wellington on april 3 2026 20c	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	04-03 07:38
highest temperature in seoul on april 2 2026 14c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 10:32
highest temperature in los angeles on april 1 2026 66 67f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-02 03:40
highest temperature in tokyo on april 1 2026 17c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	04-01 08:57
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-31 10:24
highest temperature in san francisco on march 30 2026 70 71f	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	03-31 01:53
highest temperature in lucknow on march 30 2026 37c	1	$22	22	+22	Yes	+$0	03-30 14:49
highest temperature in wellington on march 30 2026 22corhigher	1	$22	22	+22	No	+$0	03-30 09:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 17:29:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6a58f…
10-31 09:49:31	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8d55ff…
10-30 10:11:01	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9457a0…
10-29 08:54:04	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9a40c3…
10-28 07:35:35	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9b56d9…
10-27 08:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2c1b58…
10-26 09:14:11	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x625bc0…
10-22 10:08:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5704e9…
10-20 07:28:35	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0a33f…
10-19 08:45:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x07927e…
10-18 09:04:21	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x96cb4d…
10-17 11:22:32	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5fc09f…
10-16 08:56:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x034d2d…
10-15 09:26:41	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1dda69…
10-14 09:13:25	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x843efb…
10-13 08:41:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0044a…
10-12 08:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9e6209…
10-11 08:15:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d4680…
10-08 08:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4d8cf1…
10-07 14:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x64e601…
10-06 07:43:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4e7929…
10-04 15:06:13	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa65c68…
10-03 05:47:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 3?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0ebe1c…
10-02 07:39:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8c1c5d…
10-01 08:15:11	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x23c2a3…
09-30 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6ad5c8…
09-29 14:07:08	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x33ea9c…
09-28 09:24:50	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x106d88…
09-27 08:41:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7d6b96…
09-25 12:22:05	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4be702…
09-24 08:23:30	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdf4b51…
09-23 06:48:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89cc03…
09-22 07:47:24	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x063bef…
09-21 09:13:30	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56783a…
09-20 05:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x42422e…
09-19 08:17:24	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc80c01…
09-18 06:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0b157…
09-17 03:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc638bc…
09-16 08:09:34	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdd074b…
09-15 09:04:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7f517…
09-14 08:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6fea6f…
09-12 16:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66ee7f…
09-11 07:13:16	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on September 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x268e42…
09-10 04:58:06	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0fca12…
09-09 09:16:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb16294…
09-09 01:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf70aea…
09-08 02:33:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a981a…
09-07 08:15:52	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7c78a4…
09-06 17:43:45	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on September 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xff90c8…
09-06 09:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x806237…
09-05 09:54:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8533a1…
09-04 17:33:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab1b01…
09-03 09:45:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x579ef8…
09-02 07:31:34	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf36c03…
08-30 08:27:27	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x89c09c…
08-29 07:24:30	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ec813…
08-28 07:22:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5dcf78…
08-27 08:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf53d98…
08-26 08:20:13	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd77a2e…
08-25 08:25:51	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfa9852…
08-24 09:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe78d94…
08-23 14:43:33	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ea9d6…
08-22 08:42:31	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x30ba80…
08-21 07:07:54	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x567c4e…
08-20 08:36:39	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaec924…
08-19 10:56:51	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae0238…
08-18 08:10:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd20a38…
08-17 07:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa6ffda…
08-16 11:07:27	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6674d…
08-15 09:43:00	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3163af…
08-14 06:41:15	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x722bce…
08-13 07:46:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x11b12b…
08-12 07:44:40	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb9a648…
08-11 06:49:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0d62d8…
08-10 06:45:58	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x92a8ab…
08-09 01:19:45	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xda0d81…
08-08 07:21:27	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 37°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x530ada…
08-07 01:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x735c66…
08-06 06:33:23	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x643ed2…
08-05 07:47:56	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb4aa6c…
08-04 08:09:21	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4764e7…
08-03 07:14:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe4f680…
08-02 01:32:38	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf6e631…
08-01 06:56:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf1329f…
07-31 08:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab1abb…
07-30 06:45:41	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4a2eab…
07-29 06:08:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x60c307…
07-28 06:18:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab1719…
07-27 08:07:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcdfe52…
07-26 06:28:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66fcbf…
07-25 07:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x047476…
07-24 09:41:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x71526f…
07-23 07:00:18	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa1536e…
07-22 01:49:12	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2eee36…
07-20 23:51:45	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc549d7…
07-20 07:41:40	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e76e1…
07-18 22:43:52	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb51ffb…
07-18 00:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc82a31…
07-17 06:31:45	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcf9851…
07-15 22:00:41	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on July 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a3180…