Realized P&L
-$281
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
66.1%
Resolved
1,216
Trades
4,161
lifetime
Volume
$15.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$613
12 positions
First seen
2026-04-14
last 10-05 03:02
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 50 days
Categories
Other
63% 76% -$47
Crypto
35% 70% -$230
Politics
2% 50% -$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
33 active days in 12wk • peak 178 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +179 $106 82¢ $147 +$40 09-27 22:46
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +171 $94 80¢ $138 +$44 09-28 18:40
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +148 $120 92¢ $137 +$17 09-21 10:42
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +75 $64 86¢ $64 +$1 09-09 16:51
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +191 $73 20¢ $37 -$36 09-30 23:07
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +160 $69 18¢ $29 -$40 09-28 18:40
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +18 $15 78¢ $14 -$1 09-22 01:44
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +18 $16 76¢ $14 -$3 09-25 12:19
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +148 $25 9¢ $13 -$12 09-21 10:42
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +73 $11 15¢ $11 $0 09-09 16:51
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +24 $2 22¢ $5 +$3 09-25 12:19
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +18 $2 24¢ $4 +$2 09-22 01:44