Smug-Precedence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.8%

Resolved

142

Trades

253

lifetime

Volume

$316

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-29 07:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 96% $-1

Politics

4% — —

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	33	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	06-12 21:56
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	5	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	04-16 21:59
Will Opendoor reach $6 in April?	2	$6	6	0	+5	open	—	04-24 01:39
eth updown 5m 1773626700	1	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	03-16 02:00
eth updown 5m 1773630300	1	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	03-16 03:00
eth updown 5m 1773650700	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-16 08:40
eth updown 5m 1773639900	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-16 05:40
eth updown 5m 1773643500	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	03-16 06:40
pltr up or down on april 21 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-21 20:01
btc updown 5m 1776787800	2	$3	296	0	+296	open	—	04-21 16:15
sol updown 5m 1773626400	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 01:55
sol updown 5m 1773624900	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 01:30
sol updown 5m 1773627000	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 02:05
xrp updown 5m 1773625800	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	03-16 01:45
xrp updown 5m 1773624600	1	$3	4	0	+4	open	—	03-16 01:25
sol updown 5m 1773638700	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:20
sol updown 5m 1773639000	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:25
xrp updown 5m 1773640800	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:55
sol updown 5m 1773639900	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:40
xrp updown 5m 1773644100	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 06:50
sol updown 5m 1773646800	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 07:35
sol updown 5m 1773633000	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 03:45
xrp updown 5m 1773644400	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 06:55
sol updown 5m 1773640500	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:50
xrp updown 5m 1773638400	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 05:15
sol updown 5m 1773637200	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 04:55
sol updown 5m 1773645900	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 07:20
xrp updown 5m 1773653100	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 09:20
sol updown 5m 1773644400	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 06:55
xrp updown 5m 1773651600	1	$3	5	0	+5	open	—	03-16 08:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 07:59:58	btc updown 4h 1782705600	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6de7a8…
06-28 07:59:58	eth updown 4h 1782619200	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x169033…
06-12 21:56:22	XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xb12f6e…
05-18 08:49:05	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe387d3…
05-18 07:44:11	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xaf2782…
05-18 06:30:18	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x53dbc9…
05-18 04:44:19	XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8ea8f6…
05-17 22:10:41	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xca95df…
05-17 16:55:37	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x500dea…
05-17 12:45:00	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfb0346…
05-17 10:13:00	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xc6c482…
05-17 08:43:59	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa61f2c…
05-17 06:58:10	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xda3cdf…
05-17 04:41:58	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xa981de…
05-17 02:42:42	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xda77e4…
05-16 22:58:53	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd549b1…
05-16 16:53:53	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7d54d2…
05-16 15:30:58	Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8e227c…
05-16 12:59:37	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x788bc7…
05-16 08:57:06	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe5584d…
05-16 07:13:16	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf86b98…
05-16 05:59:44	XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfe33e8…
05-16 03:45:03	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xace9a0…
05-16 01:54:32	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x45f22d…
05-15 21:55:43	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x595cfa…
05-15 20:57:18	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7f2bc3…
05-15 18:40:13	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbc7601…
05-15 17:55:58	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x653e50…
05-15 15:43:35	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x076b94…
05-15 14:40:57	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3c0577…
05-15 13:31:43	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0c7184…
05-15 12:40:26	XRP Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8b51ba…
05-14 05:45:16	XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xdcd2cc…
05-14 05:24:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6b5fc2…
05-14 03:51:13	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x81e62f…
05-14 02:47:07	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x30e1d8…
05-14 02:27:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x441912…
05-14 01:43:06	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0a0110…
05-14 00:45:07	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7bd464…
05-13 23:48:54	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x28a342…
05-13 22:34:58	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2a49f7…
05-13 22:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xfe11c5…
05-13 21:32:12	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1f5695…
05-13 20:33:29	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x9f7f54…
05-13 18:57:44	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5f42eb…
05-13 17:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xf63298…
05-13 17:23:35	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfd1934…
05-13 16:32:40	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x84fd9b…
05-13 15:30:25	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd8b52b…
05-13 14:58:06	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfedc87…
05-13 13:47:08	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf0623b…
05-13 13:40:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1c05dc…
05-13 12:30:15	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x10b1d2…
05-13 11:27:26	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfbbc20…
05-13 10:15:46	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xefb447…
05-13 09:48:11	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x52309f…
05-13 09:30:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xe3380a…
05-13 08:59:16	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6b28d5…
05-13 07:36:47	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc3d7a3…
05-13 07:05:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xa5e0dc…
05-13 06:59:53	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6bebf3…
05-13 05:36:33	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x568c8b…
05-13 04:41:43	XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfc6586…
05-13 03:43:08	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x731859…
05-13 02:59:49	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9728fb…
05-13 01:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6573c9…
05-13 01:18:57	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xefd0c6…
05-13 00:55:51	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb7c7ab…
05-12 23:44:08	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x637d4a…
05-12 23:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x5caa67…
05-12 22:59:39	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x75a13b…
05-12 21:51:35	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x5a9d21…
05-12 19:40:51	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x67bd7c…
05-12 18:51:50	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x11e0b6…
05-12 18:24:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x7e708e…
05-12 17:16:32	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2b4d69…
05-12 16:59:06	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd2abb4…
05-12 15:50:30	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x34044d…
05-12 15:02:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc9078c…
05-12 14:50:35	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7c0183…
05-12 13:47:27	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xab09ca…
05-12 12:40:13	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x10fd3e…
05-12 11:59:19	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf41234…
05-12 10:43:03	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x74f10e…
05-12 10:34:23	Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb482a1…
05-12 09:17:06	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xc7c20f…
05-12 08:44:08	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x305475…
05-12 07:35:01	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4e318a…
05-12 07:07:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x480e88…
05-12 05:40:58	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3f1fde…
05-12 04:41:37	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbfe493…
05-12 03:46:44	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xf2e8e0…
05-12 02:45:04	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe1f406…
05-12 01:34:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x800276…
05-12 01:22:53	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xef7e49…
05-12 00:50:04	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x39d2e9…
05-11 23:44:28	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0e6501…
05-11 23:08:01	Solana Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x904cbf…
05-11 22:48:11	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb33da6…
05-11 21:56:31	XRP Up or Down - May 11, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xc293a8…