Deadly-Change — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$205

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

92.0%

Resolved

3,220

Trades

6,118

lifetime

Volume

$30.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 10-16 04:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 89% -$105

Other

9% 61% -$67

Sports

2% 77% +$4

Politics

0% 27% -$11

Tech

0% 20% -$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No		-6	-$5	94¢	$-6	-$1	04-29 03:38
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No		-1	-$1	94¢	$-1	$0	04-29 02:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 14?	8	$90	46	46	+0	Yes	+$0	05-14 12:13
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-23 00:45 UTC	9	$55	61	5	+56	Down	+$1	04-23 00:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 01:25 UTC	7	$54	62	0	+62	Up	+$3	04-23 01:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 01:15 UTC	4	$53	54	0	+54	Down	+$1	04-23 01:19
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	2	$50	25	25	+0	Luciano Darderi	+$0	05-14 00:01
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$50	26	26	+0	BetBoom Team	+$0	05-13 23:10
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 04:40 UTC	14	$49	122	0	+122	Down	-$25	04-23 04:45
nba atl nyk 2026 04 20	4	$46	33	33	+0	Hawks	+$7	04-21 02:44
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-22 23:30 UTC	20	$46	372	136	+236	Down	-$5	04-22 23:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 03:50 UTC	11	$41	108	19	+89	Up	-$2	04-23 03:54
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	2	$40	20	20	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$0	05-13 03:16
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$40	20	20	+0	San Francisco Giants	+$0	05-13 04:59
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$40	20	20	+0	Spurs	+$0	05-13 02:38
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers	2	$40	20	20	+0	Milwaukee Brewers	+$0	05-13 02:23
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 03:05
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Up	+$0	05-13 03:06
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics	2	$40	20	20	+0	St. Louis Cardinals	+$0	05-13 04:46
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Up	+$0	05-14 02:07
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire	2	$40	20	20	+0	Portland Fire	+$0	05-13 04:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 02:40 UTC	9	$37	45	22	+23	Down	-$15	04-23 02:45
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET	2	$36	18	18	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 23:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-23 01:00 UTC	7	$36	39	0	+39	Down	+$3	04-23 01:04
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11?	3	$35	23	17	+6	No	-$1	06-11 12:14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$35	61	67	-6	No	+$3	07-10 20:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	3	$35	21	15	+6	Up	+$1	05-30 23:55
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$35	21	15	+6	Up	+$1	05-30 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	3	$35	20	15	+5	Up	+$0	05-31 01:24
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 04:10 UTC	4	$34	17	17	+0	Down	+$0	06-25 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	4	$32	21	12	+9	Up	+$0	05-31 00:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-25 03:00 UTC	4	$32	18	17	+1	Down	+$1	06-25 03:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 04:16:07	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x3784a9…
09-18 03:24:01	Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x14d326…
09-18 02:35:46	Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x799b45…
09-18 02:35:13	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7b5113…
09-15 03:37:01	mlb sea laa 2026 09 14 total 10pt5	Over	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x281046…
09-15 00:42:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 8PM ET	Down	SELL	3	84¢	$3	0x23ca94…
09-15 00:25:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 8PM ET	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x708edb…
09-14 21:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on September 14?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x792a3c…
09-14 21:17:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 21:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x17a01a…
09-14 21:15:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 21:15 UTC	Up	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x98f552…
09-14 21:11:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 21:10 UTC	Down	SELL	3	85¢	$3	0x17e343…
09-14 21:11:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-14 21:10 UTC	Up	SELL	3	25¢	$1	0x1f8045…
09-14 05:48:25	Solana Up or Down - September 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xcd1eb2…
09-14 05:48:06	Solana Up or Down - September 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x36f806…
09-14 05:42:19	Ethereum Up or Down - September 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x6f687a…
09-14 05:40:57	Ethereum Up or Down - September 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x356ab5…
09-14 01:56:28	San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0x6fe070…
09-14 01:56:25	San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	BUY	2	17¢	$0	0xec5bdd…
09-14 00:04:37	Packers vs. Vikings	Vikings	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xe854b3…
09-13 22:58:30	Will New England Revolution win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdebd55…
09-13 22:57:10	Packers vs. Vikings	Vikings	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0x394695…
08-20 23:50:46	will a 6pt0 earthquake occur in mexico in august 1786383260324	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x1421bb…
08-15 17:22:43	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xa8ec8f…
08-15 04:52:09	will a 6pt0 earthquake occur in chile in august 1786383260324	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2ef20d…
08-15 04:50:51	Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9f0f00…
08-15 04:48:01	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x355f32…
07-25 03:18:28	mlb laa sf 2026 07 24	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	0	5¢	$0	0xc181bc…
07-25 03:18:18	mlb laa sf 2026 07 24	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xd65383…
07-21 23:17:03	Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0x1ef086…
07-21 23:16:16	Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x235cf3…
07-21 09:30:27	Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xe8a037…
07-19 21:57:04	Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x3a4599…
07-18 22:52:24	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0x8810bc…
07-15 20:56:34	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x111466…
07-15 20:28:37	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2	12¢	$0	0x7fff98…
07-14 20:49:37	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x6e81d3…
07-14 15:41:31	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	9	22¢	$2	0xb7ee37…
07-13 23:11:31	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	22¢	$3	0x7e56fc…
07-13 18:50:40	Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x69b9ff…
07-12 00:17:01	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0xf7954f…
07-11 23:19:55	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xdb4ab6…
07-11 23:19:10	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x0ebda7…
07-11 22:51:52	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x276d25…
07-10 20:52:44	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0x14c14f…
07-10 00:59:13	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x7f9161…
07-09 22:06:50	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x458ff7…
07-09 22:04:38	Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3997b9…
07-09 21:59:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xaac5bc…
07-09 21:49:19	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x379ce9…
07-09 21:47:38	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x1b5650…
07-09 20:59:26	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xf092b7…
07-09 18:02:47	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0xf067b2…
07-09 01:44:08	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x8ee7f9…
07-09 01:37:47	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x6588a2…
07-09 01:32:37	will bts perform at the 2026 fifa world cup final halftime show 20260706143941002	No	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x7e633c…
07-08 12:57:08	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xfa3021…
07-08 12:55:35	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	16	33¢	$5	0xae5869…
07-07 16:50:23	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0x21ebbf…
07-04 13:01:25	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	3	85¢	$2	0x85a2f6…
07-04 12:46:50	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe042ff…
07-04 10:29:56	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0xce1dca…
07-03 01:53:56	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x850a3b…
07-03 01:52:29	Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xcdc404…
07-03 01:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0xcaff3c…
07-02 07:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 3?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xc1cef9…
07-02 04:22:29	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x395731…
07-02 04:22:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x79eff7…
07-02 03:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xcd24fb…
07-02 03:38:53	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?	Yes	SELL	7	30¢	$2	0x569fc4…
07-02 03:21:38	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-02 00:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x47b193…
07-02 03:13:58	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-02 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xcab058…
07-02 02:05:11	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x97bdb5…
07-02 00:02:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xa81196…
07-01 22:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x30009d…
07-01 22:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	12	18¢	$2	0xc51fd0…
07-01 19:53:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x74a19c…
07-01 19:53:02	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 3?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xc4e2b9…
07-01 11:48:17	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0x8ad3e6…
07-01 03:13:41	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0f661e…
06-30 22:07:17	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0xaa235a…
06-30 22:07:10	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 2?	Yes	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x6a84ed…
06-30 22:05:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0x5b87f2…
06-30 22:05:02	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0xa0115d…
06-30 22:03:52	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0xf22290…
06-30 22:01:52	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x5f97cd…
06-30 08:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x4c0bef…
06-30 07:11:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?	Yes	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x0a0687…
06-29 23:09:46	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$1	0x901c23…
06-29 21:41:01	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x0b656d…
06-29 21:40:58	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0xa0c505…
06-29 21:12:19	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x09f4ac…
06-29 21:00:38	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x441d1c…
06-29 20:40:07	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0x342e61…
06-29 20:38:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 1?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x1b32d8…
06-29 20:34:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0x8c4751…
06-29 20:34:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 35°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x1e4d0a…
06-29 20:26:53	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x0e4953…
06-29 20:23:13	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x18d333…
06-29 20:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 29?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x4c7f7c…
06-29 20:22:44	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x916e62…