Deadly-Change — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

97.8%

Resolved

508

Trades

5,268

lifetime

Volume

$27.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-20

last 06-29 21:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

92% 96% $-9

Other

5% 88% $-1

Sports

2% 81% $-2

Politics

0% 0% $-1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 365 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes		-4	$-2	40¢	$-2	+$1	05-29 03:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
sol updown 15m 1776905100	9	$55	61	5	+56	open	—	04-23 00:57
btc updown 5m 1776907500	7	$54	62	0	+62	open	—	04-23 01:27
btc updown 5m 1776906900	4	$53	54	0	+54	open	—	04-23 01:19
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi	2	$50	25	25	+0	Luciano Darderi	+$0	05-14 00:01
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A	2	$50	26	26	+0	BetBoom Team	+$0	05-13 23:10
eth updown 5m 1776919200	14	$49	122	0	+122	open	—	04-23 04:45
nba atl nyk 2026 04 20	4	$46	33	33	+0	open	—	04-21 02:44
eth updown 15m 1776900600	20	$46	372	136	+236	open	—	04-22 23:41
btc updown 5m 1776916200	11	$41	108	19	+89	open	—	04-23 03:54
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	2	$40	20	20	+0	Spurs	+$0	05-13 02:38
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	2	$40	20	20	+0	San Francisco Giants	+$0	05-13 04:59
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros	2	$40	20	20	+0	Seattle Mariners	+$0	05-13 03:16
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers	2	$40	20	20	+0	Milwaukee Brewers	+$0	05-13 02:23
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 03:05
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Up	+$0	05-13 03:06
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics	2	$40	20	20	+0	St. Louis Cardinals	+$0	05-13 04:46
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 9PM ET	2	$40	20	20	+0	Up	+$0	05-14 02:07
New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire	2	$40	20	20	+0	Portland Fire	+$0	05-13 04:22
btc updown 5m 1776912000	9	$37	45	22	+23	open	—	04-23 02:45
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6PM ET	2	$36	18	18	+0	Down	+$0	05-12 23:38
btc updown 5m 1776906000	7	$36	39	0	+39	open	—	04-23 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	3	$35	21	15	+6	open	—	05-30 23:55
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$35	21	15	+6	open	—	05-30 23:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	3	$35	20	15	+5	open	—	05-31 01:24
xrp updown 5m 1782360600	4	$34	17	17	+0	open	—	06-25 04:14
btc updown 15m 1782356400	4	$32	18	17	+1	open	—	06-25 03:13
eth updown 5m 1776818100	13	$32	29	26	+2	open	—	04-22 00:40
sol updown 5m 1776915000	7	$31	37	0	+37	open	—	04-23 03:33
xrp updown 5m 1782439500	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	06-26 02:08
eth updown 5m 1782440400	2	$31	16	16	+0	open	—	06-26 02:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 21:12:19	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x09f4ac…
06-29 21:00:38	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	SELL	6	54¢	$3	0x441d1c…
06-29 20:26:53	bitcoin up or down june 29 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0x0e4953…
06-29 20:09:28	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	90¢	$0	0x34a5fb…
06-29 06:00:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0xf965c7…
06-29 06:00:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xe33b3d…
06-29 06:00:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x86fb87…
06-29 06:00:37	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x0f8ec4…
06-29 06:00:35	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xd0a6d1…
06-29 06:00:35	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x7c1605…
06-29 06:00:35	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x303acf…
06-28 00:25:44	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x3cdbe3…
06-26 22:57:25	sol updown 15m 1782513900	Up	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x79f1bb…
06-26 22:53:49	btc updown 15m 1782513900	Down	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x184384…
06-26 22:51:08	sol updown 15m 1782513900	Up	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x068f6f…
06-26 22:51:02	btc updown 15m 1782513900	Down	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x963d9d…
06-26 22:47:28	btc updown 15m 1782513900	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x9094de…
06-26 22:46:32	xrp updown 15m 1782513900	Down	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x6a9116…
06-26 22:45:37	xrp updown 15m 1782513900	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xadb9b5…
06-26 22:45:14	sol updown 15m 1782513900	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x845b0a…
06-26 22:31:20	btc updown 15m 1782513000	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x1698f4…
06-26 22:31:05	eth updown 15m 1782513000	Down	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0xb38d93…
06-26 22:30:46	eth updown 15m 1782513000	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x5f9df1…
06-26 22:30:41	xrp updown 15m 1782513000	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xc7f94b…
06-26 22:30:19	xrp updown 15m 1782513000	Down	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xcae78d…
06-26 22:30:14	btc updown 15m 1782513000	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xdec37b…
06-26 22:29:23	btc updown 15m 1782512100	Up	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0x3c4cb2…
06-26 22:27:38	eth updown 15m 1782512100	Up	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xd187db…
06-26 22:16:56	sol updown 15m 1782512100	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x431745…
06-26 22:16:55	eth updown 15m 1782512100	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x6d6e50…
06-26 22:16:55	btc updown 15m 1782512100	Up	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x3ada09…
06-26 22:15:43	sol updown 15m 1782512100	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x03eb2c…
06-26 22:15:41	eth updown 15m 1782512100	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x0211b1…
06-26 22:15:40	btc updown 15m 1782512100	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb53041…
06-26 22:03:22	xrp updown 15m 1782511200	Down	SELL	7	62¢	$4	0x751115…
06-26 22:03:22	xrp updown 15m 1782511200	Down	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x5a2817…
06-26 22:01:02	sol updown 15m 1782511200	Up	SELL	6	60¢	$4	0x10847d…
06-26 22:00:52	eth updown 15m 1782511200	Down	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xb9f99a…
06-26 22:00:29	sol updown 15m 1782511200	Up	SELL	4	60¢	$2	0xc34f97…
06-26 22:00:22	eth updown 15m 1782511200	Down	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x73ec8e…
06-26 22:00:17	sol updown 15m 1782511200	Up	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x5a33b5…
06-26 22:00:16	xrp updown 15m 1782511200	Down	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xc8d0c9…
06-26 21:47:50	eth updown 15m 1782510300	Down	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x6954c6…
06-26 21:46:29	eth updown 15m 1782510300	Down	SELL	1	52¢	$0	0x9c6d3a…
06-26 21:45:59	btc updown 15m 1782510300	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x640324…
06-26 21:45:43	btc updown 15m 1782510300	Down	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xb7e726…
06-26 21:45:32	eth updown 15m 1782510300	Down	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0xd5317a…
06-26 21:45:19	sol updown 15m 1782510300	Up	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0x4221b3…
06-26 21:45:16	sol updown 15m 1782510300	Up	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x034dcf…
06-26 02:53:55	eth updown 5m 1782442200	Down	SELL	15	96¢	$15	0x73592e…
06-26 02:53:52	eth updown 5m 1782442200	Down	BUY	16	92¢	$14	0xb2753e…
06-26 02:24:10	sol updown 5m 1782440400	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x765a69…
06-26 02:24:05	eth updown 5m 1782440400	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0x505bcf…
06-26 02:23:59	sol updown 5m 1782440400	Down	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x9bc057…
06-26 02:23:52	eth updown 5m 1782440400	Down	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x924cc8…
06-26 02:08:59	xrp updown 5m 1782439500	Down	SELL	16	99¢	$15	0xf5d0f2…
06-26 02:08:55	xrp updown 5m 1782439500	Down	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x6f736d…
06-26 01:49:17	eth updown 5m 1782438300	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x5ab7c5…
06-26 01:49:16	eth updown 5m 1782438300	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xad2141…
06-26 01:49:16	eth updown 5m 1782438300	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4b4834…
06-26 01:49:16	eth updown 5m 1782438300	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x17d687…
06-26 01:48:53	eth updown 5m 1782438300	Up	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0x6c61a7…
06-26 01:35:01	eth updown 5m 1782437400	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xfb74a3…
06-26 01:35:01	eth updown 5m 1782437400	Down	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x92711b…
06-26 01:35:01	btc updown 5m 1782437400	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$8	0x8697f8…
06-26 01:35:01	eth updown 5m 1782437400	Down	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x6a9184…
06-26 01:35:01	eth updown 5m 1782437400	Down	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x4af391…
06-26 01:34:25	eth updown 5m 1782437400	Down	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x858d06…
06-26 01:34:20	btc updown 5m 1782437400	Down	BUY	9	97¢	$8	0xe25769…
06-26 01:13:41	btc updown 15m 1782435600	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xcbcc47…
06-26 01:13:34	btc updown 15m 1782435600	Down	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0xe9c415…
06-26 00:40:01	xrp updown 5m 1782434100	Down	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0x57fbd0…
06-26 00:40:01	xrp updown 5m 1782434100	Down	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x001936…
06-26 00:39:29	xrp updown 5m 1782434100	Down	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xcdf23e…
06-25 23:44:01	eth updown 5m 1782430800	Down	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x984917…
06-25 23:44:01	eth updown 5m 1782430800	Down	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x50c72a…
06-25 23:44:01	eth updown 5m 1782430800	Down	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x06108b…
06-25 23:43:52	eth updown 5m 1782430800	Down	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x0d78d9…
06-25 23:39:35	btc updown 5m 1782430500	Down	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x5585d0…
06-25 23:39:34	btc updown 5m 1782430500	Down	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x02e731…
06-25 23:39:31	btc updown 5m 1782430500	Down	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x8bc4a4…
06-25 23:29:52	xrp updown 5m 1782429900	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x95b6a8…
06-25 23:29:26	xrp updown 5m 1782429900	Up	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x402ddc…
06-25 23:24:16	eth updown 5m 1782429600	Up	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0x2a958a…
06-25 23:24:04	eth updown 5m 1782429600	Up	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x77d4ad…
06-25 22:49:34	btc updown 5m 1782427500	Down	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x7fbadd…
06-25 22:49:22	btc updown 5m 1782427500	Down	BUY	12	88¢	$10	0x861b2a…
06-25 22:44:10	sol updown 15m 1782426600	Up	SELL	9	98¢	$8	0x9c0752…
06-25 22:43:28	sol updown 15m 1782426600	Up	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0xce1076…
06-25 22:29:11	btc updown 5m 1782426300	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xe06630…
06-25 22:29:11	btc updown 5m 1782426300	Down	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0x70802c…
06-25 22:29:11	btc updown 5m 1782426300	Down	SELL	4	93¢	$4	0x5cbcbf…
06-25 22:29:10	btc updown 5m 1782426300	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x52f976…
06-25 22:29:05	btc updown 5m 1782426300	Down	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xebaf2d…
06-25 21:37:52	val feo lyon 2026 06 25	LYON	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xc699c8…
06-25 11:39:22	dota2 ts8 ngx 2026 06 25	Team Spirit	SELL	6	76¢	$4	0xcb9454…
06-25 04:54:11	eth updown 5m 1782363000	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbd0efa…
06-25 04:53:58	eth updown 5m 1782363000	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x6c5746…
06-25 04:14:59	xrp updown 5m 1782360600	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x612fa5…
06-25 04:14:56	xrp updown 5m 1782360600	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf05896…